Tag Archives: soccer

Arsenal getting it right in the transfer window

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“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another goalkeeper”
“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another centre back”
“Arteta has a fetish”

It is baffling that Arsenal are criticised for not signing players, then when deals are done (and just awaiting to be announced), are then criticised for saying players.

Whilst we all know we need a striker and a winger, we also needed a new defensive midfielder, which became two when Thomas Partey decided not to sign a new deal. Right sided central defensive cover for William Saliba was also essential, as was back up for David Raya.

Whilst Kepa and Christian Norgaard might not be the most exciting names, both are experienced Premier League campaigners who are ready to go from day one. The pair played regularly for mid-table Premier League sides last year, with Norgaard captaining Brentford.

I have always said a “squad player” at a title-chasing team needs to be good enough to start regularly for a mid-table team, and Kepa and Norgaard are that. And the fact that we are getting them for just £15 million combined is shrewed business.

We could have signed more exciting players as backup dancers. Spent £20-30 million on each of them. But they would unlikely have been better than Kepa and Norgaard. And every penny over the £15m we have spent on the pair would have been a penny less than we would have to spend elsewhere.

And ultimately, the club need to sign the players they think will improve us, whilst understanding the bigger picture and impact each deal will have on other deals. They do not sign players to appease cry-arsing fans.

It has to be remembered that, with Norgaard, he is replacing Jorginho in the squad, and not Thomas Partey.

The Ghanian is our first choice defensive midfielder, and he is being replaced by Martin Zubimendi.

Taking into account Partey’s fitness problems over the 5-years at the club and his huge wage, it is hard not to see Zubimendi as an upgrade.

Zubimendi is Spain’s second best defensive midfielder behind Rodri, and was being chased by Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona. He chose Arsenal because he believed in Arteta and adds an aspect of control in the centre of midfield. A fabulous signing.

And then last night it broke that Arsenal were close to securing a deal for Valencia centreback Cristhian Mosquera.

I will be honest, I do not know much about Mosquera beyond that he was first choice for Valencia last season, is 21 today, has been playing at the Euro U21 tournament and will cost less than £20m.

Reports are that he is quick and strong, and therefore should be natural cover for William Saliba.

Last season, Saliba’s cover was a mixture of Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu. None of whom are a specialist centreback. Bringing in Mosquera would mean we have specialist cover in that area.

An eye also needs to be kept on Saliba’s contract – his current deal expires in 2-years and there has been little talk of a new one. Taking into account how Real Madrid have operated in the transfer market recently, I would not be surprised if they are already in his ear about a move in 2027.

If Mosquera is rated highly, getting him in now will give him 2-years to grow and settle before potentially replacing Saliba. Of course, I do not want the Frenchman to leave but this deal does feel like it could be future proofing our defence if he decides to depart.

So there we have it. 3 squad players signed (or on the brink of signing) for a combined £35m, and a first choice defensive midfielder for £55m. £90m spent, with all 4 likely to be announced next week (it was always said that we would start announcing deals from 1 July).

And if you are still unsure why we signed those players:

The graphic above really highlights the impact of the signings have had on the midfield down. We now have proper quality squad depth from goalkeeper, through the defence and into the midfield. 2 players for every position.

If you do not think the players we signed we essential, cross them out of the graphic above and see what you are left with….

And finally, yes we need a new striker, and a new winger. But this is not FIFA or Football Manager. You can not sign players in a “certain order” just for good PR.

A deal for someone like Rodrygo will not be done until after the Club World Cup. And it might take a few weeks after as he will want to go straight on holiday and turn off his brain. I would not be surprised if we do not see his situation resolved until August.

In the meantime, we are looking at alternatives, and Eberechi Eze is a name that has broken recently.

With his release clause, Eze would be a quick deal to do. But signing him would mean no Rodrygo.

Rodrygo needs to be our number one target, and we just need to be saying to Eze that if the deal for the Brazilian is not done by the first week of August, we will pivot to him. Now whilst some might say “why would Eze join if he knew he was second choice” – get in the real world. Most players realise when joining a new club that they were not first choice.

And in August, if Rodrygo joins, Eze would still have plenty of options on the table elsewhere.

As for the striker, the situation is unchanged with Viktor Gyorekes and Benjamin Sesko. There is still brinksmanship between Arsenal, sporting and RB Leipzeg.

I beleive Sesko is our first choice, but the sticking point is the fee. RB Leipzeg apparantly need to make some sizeable sales before 1 July, so Arsenal will be hoping to use this to drive the price down. And if the deal is not done by then, I think we will quickly pivot to Gyorekes.

All in all, Arsenal are getting it right this transfer window.

We have recruited squad players without breaking the bank. Players that raise our floor. And we are still continuing to work on a couple big name signings that will raise the ceiling. But these bigger deals take time.

Keenos

Transfer windows within transfer windows

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With the Club World Cup, this was always going to be a bit of a strange transfer window.

An “Exceptional registration period” opened on 1 June and closed yesterday. The 10 day registration period was to “allow clubs playing in the tournament to sign new players before it started”. And as such, for fairness, all clubs across the world were also allowed to sign players.

Rather than just say “we will leave the window open for the duration of the summer”, leagues have closed the registration period for 6 days and it reopens again on 16 June.

This is because Premier League regulations state that the summer window must open “at midnight on the date 12 weeks prior to the date on which it is to conclude.” That is Monday 16 June, when the actual transfer window will open, closing 12 weeks later, on Monday 1 September.

That means there was a mini deadline of last night for clubs in the Club World Cup to sign players. For clubs not in the competition, they did not really care.

The last 10-days has seen Manchester City go aggressive in the market. The talk was they only wanted to complete deals that could be done before the Club World Cup started.

City have spent over £100m on Rayan Aït-Nouri, Marcus Bettinelli, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders. Whilst some will commend them for getting deals done early, it means they might miss out on other players that could come available later in the window. By limiting yourself only to players who were available for a 10-day period is very restrictive.

Chelsea meanwhile spoke about the “Club World Cup tax”. This was having to pay a premium to get a deal done quickly.

We all know transfer negotiating takes time. Most deals do not happen quickly. By limiting yourself to signing a player before the 10 June deadline, you could end up paying a premium as you are giving yourself less time to negotiate.

If you are not bound by the deadline, you have more time to have talks, to play games, and to seek alternatives.

We then have the unseen deadline of PSR.

The longer we operate under PSR, and the UEFA FFP version, the more we learn. And what the financial regulations do is create an unseen deadline on 30 June.

The reporting window for PSR is 1 July to 30 June. That means a player sold on 1 June 2025 goes into the 2025/26 reporting year, whilst a player sold on 30 June 2025 is included in the 2024/25 reporting year.

Teams struggling to meet the PSR requirements will look to offload players before 30 June so that they can make ends meet. This means that for buying clubs, with no PSR concerns, there might be some home grown bargains to be had before his date.

Likewise, clubs who have no PSR concerns for 2024/25 might be reluctant to sell players before 1 July as they do not really “need the income”. Meanwhile, a £50m pure profit for home grown player such as Martin Zubimendi can give their summer transfer window a huge bump if they hold off until 1 July. Selling before this date can be seen as a bit of a waste.

This creates a bit of a backlog where teams who do not need to sell will be trying to slow down deals. Hold them back until July so that the incoming fee can be reported in the next year. This is certainly something most of us have not thought of before.

And in terms of the buying club, they would not be too concerned about their deal being delayed until 1 July.

Beyond the PR and fans crying on social media about “we have not signed anyone yet”, there is very little disadvantage for a club to do rush through a deal between 16 June and 30 June.

For a start, it would mean that none of the transfer fee will hit the 2024/25 accounts – both real accounts and those prepared for PSR. Secondly, a club will save on wages.

Yes, that might only be £500k if it is a top player, but every little counts!

You might also be able to agree a little discount in the transfer fee if you agree to delay it for 2-3 weeks and not pursue any other targets. The opposite of if a buying club wants to rush a deal through.

Finally, teams will not be returning to full training until July. So by agreeing to delay the transfer until July, you are not disadvantaging yourself.

There is also talk over other deadlines clubs are looking at, such as official accounting reporting in their individual countries and the tax they would have to pay.

The talk was Real Sociedad were looking to delay the transfer as if they sold Zubimendi in June, they would be less likely to spend the profits and would be hit with a larger tax bill. Whereas once you have spent the profits (which would happen in July), you then offset the income of the sold player against the expenditure of players coming in, thus reducing your tax bill.

It will now be interesting to see whether Martin Zubimendi is announced on 16 June, as soon as the new window opens. If it does happen, it will show that the delay was only due to Spain playing in the Nations League final.

I would not be surprised if it is announced that the deal is done across social media accounts during that week, but we do not see an official announcement from Arsenal until 1 July.

Always learning, trying to understand why deals that seem done are not going through quickly…

Have a good Wednesday.

Keenos

What is happening with Thomas Partey?

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It feels like we are getting mixed messages around Thomas Partey right now.

Last week Arsenal published their released list. Mainly youth players (and for some reason players from the girls team), it also included Jorginho and Kieran Tierney, as well as confirming that Neto and Raheem Sterling’s loans were due to end. However one name was not on the initial list. Thomas Parety.

Alongside youth team defender Michal Rosiak and Chloe Kelly, Partey was on a second list of players where discussions are ongoing, and once matters are finalised between all parties, we will communicate in due course.

But then this week, the Premier League published the released players list that had been submitted to them. And on this list Partety was included.

What was a bit of a head scratcher is that Partey is on the list, but Rosiak was not.

Now we have had no news that Rosiak has signed a new deal. Everything points to him still being in discussions. So why was Partey included and not him?

Was it a clerical error? Or is it that talks have not gone well and one of the two parties have made it clear they have no intention of signing of a new contract.

Mikel Arteta would have banked on Partey staying before signing off on the Jorginho exit. Whilst the Brazilian’s contract was also due to expire, Arteta would not have wanted both of his defensive midfield options to depart.

If Partey was always slated to leave, then I am sure Jorginho, who has just married his English wife, would have easily have been persuaded to stay in London. Doing a short term loan deal with Flamengo to allow him to play in the Club World Cup would also have been a possibility.

Instead, Jorginho joined the Brazilian club and is returning to the country of his birth for the first time since leaving at 15 years old.

So what actually is happening with Partey?

It certainly felt that talks were close not too long ago, with Partey’s return to his top form this season cementing himself as the first choice defensive midfielder. And even with the incoming Martin Zubimendi, there was more than enough space for both of them.

Shortly after Arsenal published the released players list, posts were circulating on social media that Partey was considering pulling out of negotiations. The rumour was that Partey was “cautious” about signing a new deal

At 32 years old, and having played brilliantly this season, this contract could be his last big one. His retirement package.

It is likely that either the length of contract or salary offer from Arsenal is not as big as what he could get elsewhere. I imagine we would have been offering him a 2-year deal with an option for a 3rd at around £150k a week. He could get a longer term deal by moving back to Atletico Madrid, or more money by jumping on the Saudi gravy train.

This will leave Arteta with a headache if two defensive midfielders depart.

The plan would have been to have Zubimendi and Partey as the defensive options, and Declan Rice and Mikel Merino as options further forward. If Partey goes, either Rice becomes Zubimendi’s defensive cover, or we need to go into the market and buy a 2nd defensive midfielder. And that is an expenditure we perhaps did not budget for.

Throughout this blog, I have talked about Zubimendi as if it is a done deal. I believe it is.

We have been criticised by opposing fans and those boring Arsenal fans for “not completing a deal we were negotiating for in January”. My bet is all we were waiting for was the Nations League to be over.

Zubimendi’s Spain were in the final of the Nations League. The Spaniard went straight from club football into training camp for his country. He would not have had the time to fly to London, do his medical, undertake the marketing photoshoot, and prepare for playing for his country. It is right that Arsenal allowed him to focus on then Nations League.,

With the competition now over, Zubimendi will either sign today (the last day of the little transfer window), or we will see him sign on 16 June – when the window reopens. We will then use the next 6 days to get the medical done and paperwork in place ready for the announcement.

An alternate thinking is that neither Real Sociedad do not have any UEFA FFP concerns for 2024/25 and would prefer the deal to go into 2025/26 where the huge lump sum profit could be used without issues. Likewise it might suit Arsenal for the deal to not hit our 2024/25 PSR reporting year, and instead go into next.

I would not be surprised if their is an announcement today, or very shortly after.

Back to Partey, his contract does not expire until 30 June. We have plenty of time to try and get a deal done.

At £250k a week, he is one of Arsenal’s highest paid players. If he departs we would then have £22m a year to play with (his wage and amortised transfer fee). That would free us up to sign a replacement for £50m and pay them £150k a week and still save money. However we would still need to find the initial £50m.

I am sure the preference will still be for Partey to sign on lower wages.

£150k a week means the club are spending around £8m a year on him, and his initial transfer fee will be fully amortised. That would then be £14m a year saving on our accounts, and £14m a year we can spend elsewhere without having to increase our outgoings.

And in the most simplistic of terms, signing Zubimendi and keeping Partey costs us less than having Jorginho and Partey on our books.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Keenos