Proper football finally returns tomorrow. Hallelujah.
It is a tough little game for Arsenal as we travel to Manchester City, and continues a tough little run.
In our first 11 games of the season, we would have played Liverpool, Manchester City, Man U and Tottenham away.
Throw in home games against Sheffield United, Leicester City and Wolves, as well as inform Aston Villa and an away trip to newly promoted Leeds and it makes it a tough start to the season.
If we come out of those 11 games with 7 wins (we already have 3), we would have done well.
That would have us on course for top 4.
If we can snatch a couple of draws or a win in one of those tough away games, it will be a bonus.
The big question for Mikel Arteta is whether to or not to start Thomas Partey.
Partey has played all 3 of Atletico Madrid’s game this season, completing 90 minutes in the last 2. His last league game being just before the international break.
He also played 180 minutes against Mali and Qatar for Ghana.
So match fitness will not be a problem.
He was at the training ground on Tuesday taking his promotion pictures having flown in from international duty. He probably did not join full training.
Wednesday would have been the first day he joined the full group.
Arsenal were not as depleted as some might think during the international break. We only had ten players in action.
Alongside Partey was Ainsley Maitland Niles, Bukayo Saka and Eddie Nketiah for England. Alex Runarsson, Dani Ceballos, Granit Xhaka, Sead Kolasinac, Bernd Leno, Nicolas Pepe were also on duty for their country.
We also had Kieran Tierney travel with Scotland, but he had to go into isolation following the positive Coronavirus test of a teammate.
The likes of Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding, David Luiz, Gabriel, Mo Elneny, Joe Willock, Willian, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang did not travel.
Looking at Manchester City, you have to think the starting XI will be made up with the majority of players who were not on international duty. Perhaps adding either Saka or Maitland-Niles at left wing back (neither player played much and all 3 of England’s fixtures were at home).
Having got 3 days training under his belt, Partey will start in the middle of the park. Arteta’s headache will be who to partner him.
Xhaka last played on Tuesday against Germany, so there is no reason he would not have returned from the short trip fully fit and ready to go:
Leno
Holding Luiz Gabriel
Bellerin Xhaka Partey Saka
Willian Lacazette Auba
Today is the last day of the domestic transfer window. Do not expect Arsenal to do anything.
Atletico Madrid had made their position clear. If anyone wanted to sign Thomas Partey, his release clause would have to be triggered. They were not going to negotiate.
Even when they showed interest in Arsenal’s Lucas Torreira, their stance on Partey did not change.
Arsenal tried to negotiate. To try and push that fee lower, to try and include Torreira in the deal. But Atletico would not be moved.
Than at 11.28pm Central European Time, with just 32 minutes of the transfer window remaining, Atletico got the call.
The call was from the La Liga offices informing them that Arsenal has paid the money. The release clause had been triggered and Partey was no longer their player.
Arsenal had shown a ruthlessness not seen before.
After weeks of unanswered call’s, and months of being told “we will not talk, we will not negotiate”, Arsenal had played Atletico at their own game.
If Atletico did not want to talk, did not want to negotiate, then fair enough. They were perfectly entitled to that position.
Likewise Arsenal did not have to communicate their intention to trigger the clause to Atletico. They did not need to let them know. A courtesy call might have been nice. But no. We decided to match fire with fire.
Arsenal followed Atletico’s advice, and triggered the clause without even attempting to contact Atletico.
Had Atletico sat down with Arsenal, had they negotiated, the deal would have been done weeks ago.
Atletico would have had £30m+ to reinvest in this transfer window. Instead, they got the money they wanted, but do not have the time to spend it.
It is behaviour that will reverberate around Europe. Arsenal are not a club to play games with.
The garden centres have put the BBQs away and the Christmas decorations are up in store. Yesterday I planted my winter hanging baskets.
Winter is coming, but more important is transfer deadline day is also coming, at least for international transfers.
The transfer window for international slams shut at 11pm on Monday October 5th. However domestic deals can still be made up until 5pm on the 16th of October.
It has been a well written story that Arsenal have too many players.
As it stands, we have 33 first team squad players listed on the website. More importantly than that is we currently have 19 non-home grown players.
We can only register 17 of those.
So players need to be sold, but players also need to be signed.
We are still a Thomas Partey and / or an Houssem Aouar from having a really good team.
Arsenal need to sell to buy. Not just to raise funds but also to free up the squad space – leaving players unregistered is not an option due to contractual issues that could arise.
So what do we expect to happen in the next few days (internationally) and weeks (domestically)?
Sead Kolasinac looks like he is out the door, off to Bayer Leverkusen. By the time this is published he might be gone.
He was rated as one of the best left backs in Germany, having been named in the Bundesliga team of the year in the season before joining Arsenal.
Following Kolasinac out of the door will be Lucas Torreira.
His move to Atletico Madrid will be rubber stamped.
Atlético want a loan with an obligation to buy, whilst Arsenal want a straight sale.
What might happen is a loan with an obligation to buy next season will be agreed, but at slightly higher than what Arsenal want for a transfer this summer.
The departure of both will bring Arsenal’s squad size down to 31, and non-home grown contingent to 17. Bang on where we’d need to be.
Whilst you might think “Arsenal still need to sell to buy” there is a school of thought that the club have already written off the futures of Sokratis and Mesut Ozil.
Come deadline day, Arsenal will be happy to sell Sokratis for free, and accept a loan deal for Mesut Ozil where they continue to pay the majority of his wages for the rest of the season.
Both of these deals will probably happen quickly on deadline day as clubs look to take advantage of Arsenal having too many players.
Napoli have already tried to sign Sokratis for nothing. Arsenal rejected the deal but come Monday they will have no choice but to sign off on it.
With Ozil, the club would prefer to ship him out to a side that pays a big chunk of his wages. But the lore he becomes unwanted by Mikel Arteta, and the more Arsenal need rid to bring the squad numbers in line, the less a loaning club would be expected to contribute.
Do not be surprised to see him go to Turkey (or even join Kolasinac at Leverkusen), with Arsenal still paying £250-300k of his weekly wage.
There are 38 weeks left on Ozil’s contract. Arsenal’s fall liability would be around £13.3m. If we can get that done to just £10m, we’d have done well.
Sokratis leaving would also save the club £3.5m in wages, whilst Kolasinac & Torreira leaving frees up a further £7.5m. £11m in total.
Following Kolasinac & Torreira leaving, expect the club to move quickly for Auoar.
With Arsenal mentally writing Sokratis and Ozil off, we do not need to sell them before signing Auoar. The Frenchman can be signed with the two unwanted lads dumped on deadline day.
Deadline day is when we will move for Thomas Partey.
Kolasinac, Torreira, Sokratis & Ozil sold, with Aouar in would leave Arsenal at 16 non home-grown players.
If Arsenal pay the release clause for Partey, they do not need to negotiate with Atlético Madrid. It is just a case of taking the money to the Spanish FA HQ which in turn triggers that release clause. It will be a deal done quickly.
Calum Chambers and Shkodran Mustafi’s injuries have proved to be a hit of a headache for Arsenal this summer.
With the likes of West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace & Newcastle desperate for a centre back, both would have had plenty of interest if they were fit. But no one will take a risk with their injuries
Neither are expected to be fully match fit until the end of October. That is just 8 weeks before the winter window opens.
I would be very surprised if either leaves before January, but we might see a club like Fulham take the risk on Chambers and sign him prior to the October 16th domestic deadline. Expect another loan deal with an obligation to buy next summer for him.
As for Mustafi, expect a “Cedric deal” to be done with him in January.
This year Arsenal signed Cedric on loan, with an agreement for him to join permanently from Southampton in the summer when his contract expired.
Do not be surprised if Lazio or someone else takes Mustafi on loan for the 2nd half of the season, and he later joins that club when his Arsenal contract expires in the summer.
Arsenal would benefit from his wages being paid by someone else for the 2nd half of the season.
Matteo Guendouzi could leave if a big enough hid comes in for him. If not he will stay.
If Arsenal do secure Partey and Aouar, expect Emile Smith Rowe and Joe Willock to be loaned out to Premier League clubs – although these deals will happen closer to the 16th October.
So in summary, we do we predict:
Kolasinac SOLD
Torreira LOAN with obligation to buy
Auoar to be SIGNED
Sokratis to be SOLD for free on transfer deadline day
Ozil to be loaned out on transfer deadline day, Arsenal paying the majority of his wage
Partey to be SIGNED on deadline day
Chambers to leave on LOAN with an obligation to buy prior to October 16th
Mustafi towable on LOAN in January. He will join that club on a free transfer next summer
Willock and Smith Rowe to go out on LOAN closer to October 16th
We will keep track of our predictions and let you know how we get on.
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 