Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. 1 year left on his contract. Currently making a lot of noise about leaving the club.

I had a debate in a WhatasApp group over his contract. My pal was in the corner of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Demanding they we do everything we can to get him to stay. Myself was looking at the other side of the corner. Fairly non-plussed. If he does not want to stay on Arsenal’s terms, he can go.

This is a summary of the discussion…

Give him what he wants

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain should be offered a new contract. And I am sure he has been offered a new contract. The problem is, like in so many contract stalemates, what the club are offering and what the player wants often do not meet each other.

So when the point was made give him what he wants I questioned as to what his worth actually is?

If Oxlade-Chamberlain wants £500k a week, should we pay it? Clearly no.

Let’s half it to £250k a week. Should we pay him that? Again, it is no.

Half it again, £125k a week. It is around what Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil are on. It would make Oxlade-Chamberlain our 3^rd highest player in the squad. Is he our 3^rd best player? He is not even a guaranteed starter.

In the end we settled on £100k a week. It was what Hector Bellerin’s new contract was reportedly worth.

To put that into perspective, according to Total Sportek, £100k a week is currently what Petr Cech and Olivier Giroud get. It is just shy of Aaron Ramsey and Theo Walcott – who are both ahead of him in terms of first team players, but slightly more than the likes of Shkodran Mustafi, Jack Wilshere, Granit Xhaka and Santi Cazorla.

I would say £100k a week should be the offer on the table to him – even though I wonder if he is really worth £30k a week more than Danny Welbeck…

So it is not a case of pay Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain what he wants to stay, but more of a case of pay him what he is worth.

Manchester City have a history of over paying players. Look at recent examples of Scot Sinclair and Jack Rodwell. They paid Samir Nasri £120k a week to poach him from Arsenal. Raheem Sterling is on £180k a week.

If Manchester City (or Chelsea) come in with a silly offer of wages to Oxlade-Chamberlain, should Arsenal match it? Clearly not.

£100k is the peak of his weekly value. If he turns that down to join Chelsea or Manchester City for £125k a week, £150k a week, or whatever they will offer over and above his market value, then we should not match it.

We should not pay him what he wants, we should pay him what we think he is worth

But he found his form last season

It feels like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain had a brilliant season for Arsenal last season. But is this the mind actually playing tricks?

He only actually started 16 league games. He only actually scored 2 goals. For me, last season was no different to his previous 5 years at Arsenal.

2016/17 was the 6^th season Oxlade-Chamberlain ahs been at Arsenal for. And it was a season which typified his Arsenal career.

Inconsistent performances interjected with the odd bit of magic. Unable to play twice a week, and as soon as he puts in a run of half a dozen games in a row, he picks up a slight injury.

Able to beat a man, but then runs down a blind alley, or into traffic. He is a frustrating player as the talent on the ball is clearly their, but his decision making is poor and is output in terms of goals and assists is not good enough.

Last season probably was his best in an Arsenal shirt. But 16 league starts is not the sign of a regular first teamer, yet we are willing to pay him first XI wages. And he potentially wants more?

One reason he has piped up about moving is to secure first team football elsewhere. He knows 16 league starts is not enough for a player who will be 24 in August. But would he get first team football at Chelsea or Manchester City? He would even struggle to start for Liverpool.

And just 2 league goals…

A major issue for him throughout his Arsenal career is he has never really nailed down a position. A jack of all trades, a master of none.

He found his position last season

Oxlade-Chamberlain was excellent at right wing back towards the end of last season. He has potentially found his position in the Arsenal squad. Arsenal may finally be able to offer him the first team football he demands.

But there are a handful of problems…

1. He has only played 5 games at right wing back. Is this really enough data to say Alex, here is £100k a week, you’re going to be our first choice right wing back next season.
2. Does Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain want to play right wing back? He has previously made it fairly clear he wants to play in the middle of the park. He is not good enough to play in the middle of the park for Arsenal. Perhaps he sees himself moving to play central midfield elsewhere and prove himself?
3. Are Arsenal even going to be playing 3 at the back next season? If they return to 4, he is not a right back, and he will once again find himself behind Theo Walcott on the wing

But he is better than Theo Walcott

Is he really better than Theo Walcott? I hate it when people say this, as it often shows someone who prefers style of substance. Someone who would rather be with a pretty girl who is a shit shag.

Theo Walcott is not everyones’s cup of tea, I understand that. He is not a great player to watch. He is poor at crossing, can’t beat a man with skill, and often loses the ball. But he gets goals and assists.

On the other hand, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is very good on the eye. He looks busy, will nut meg a player every game, beats his opponent for fun, but he never scores and rarely gets an assist.

A friend of mine (I have 2 friends) wanted us to target Douglas Costa from Bayern Munich to replace Theo Walcott.

Douglas Costa is another one who looks brilliant, but actually produces very little. He scored just 7 goals last season. It is all well and good showing a piece of skill on the half way line, beating a man with a step over, putting in a rabona cross, but if the skill leads to nothing, no goals, not assists, it is fairly pointless. It is for YouTube advertising revenue, for teenage boys to get excited over.

I am a stats man, and Theo Walcott pisses all over Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Last season, Walcott scored 19 goals in all competition. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, in his best season ever (quote; my mate) scored just 7 goals in all competitions. 10 Premier League goals v 2 Premeir League goals.

In the league, Walcott averaged a goal every 192 minutes. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain a goal every 781 minutes.

And the argument of ‘but Oxlade-Chamberlain is younger, he has more potential’ is now out of the window. Ox is 24 in August. It is time to deliver.

It is not really a debate, if we return to 4 at the back and it is Walcott v Oxlade-Chamberlain on the right win, Walcott starts every time. He is the more dangerous player.

 

I do not want Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to leave. I want us to offer him a new contract. But my opinion is similar to the one I held over Jack Wilshere a few summers ago. It is time for him to get consistent, time for him to remain injury free.

He is not a good enough player, not an important enough player, to hold the club to ransom over wages. If he wants more than £100k a week, he knows where the door is. He can enjoy sitting on the bench of Manchester City or Chelsea. Enjoy winning nothing for Liverpool.

Oxlade-Chamberlain needs to stay at Arsenal, but on Arsenal’s terms, not on Oxlade-Chamberlain’s.

Keenos
Follow @KeenosAFC