Arsenal transfer policy in the last few windows has been clear and obvious.

Sign younger players who are hungry to learn.

There are plenty of wide-men out there that fit that criteria – Mykhailo Mudryk, Rafael Leao, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Cody Gakpo. But should Arsenal depart from their current policy and sign Wilfried Zaha in January.

Let’s see if we can make a case for his recruitment.

Instant impact

We are in the title race.

A smart signing in January could be the difference between finishing first and second.

The issue with going for a younger player, playing abroad, is you might end up writing the first 6 months of their career as they settle. This would basically be the second half of this season.

In Zaha, we would be getting someone who is Premier League ready. Who would not need to adapt to a new country. A man who already has 6 goals in 13 games this season. A player that has averaged 10 Premier League goals a season for the last 5 years.

He would make an impact from day one.

The style of winger is so important to us.

Nicolas Pepe was never a bad player. He just did not suit our system.

He relied on their being space in behind his opponent, and Rennes built a team around getting the best out of this – defending deep and looking to counter attack. At Arsenal, he struggled.

We play a more possession based game, with our defenders starting position being further up the field. We look to dominate play and often face teams who play the “low block” and put 8 outfield players behind the ball.

This restricted Pepe’s space, and as a result his influence.

Whilst Crystal Palace have often played counter attacking football, Zaha has shown time and again that he can operate in little space.

He is very good when being stood up by an opponent. He has that trick, the pace and power to beat the full back. To find the space and create or score from nothing.

Coming off the bench when leading, he would be an excellent option as we look to defend deeper and hit the opponents on the counter.

Cool and calm in front of goal, he would be the man to turn 1-nil into 2.

Zaha has that something special to unlock a defence, regardless of how they are set up.

Age is not a concern

“But he is 30” is a genuine concern.

I can understand why fans would not want him due to his age. But as a free transfer, we would not be investing a huge transfer fee into him with no chance of selling on.

If we could get him in January on a 3 and a half year deal, we would expect to get at least 18 months of top level football out of him before he begins to decline.

That 18 months could see us won the league this season as well as free up more money to invest elsewhere in the summer.

It could even allow us to go big for Mudryk in the summer of 2023 and allow him a season to adapt with little pressure.

I would be surprised if Zaha would command much more than £150k a week.

A 3.5 year contract would cost us around £27.3million. Even if we throw in a £10m signing on fee, the total investment on wages and fees would be less than £40m. That is not a huge figure and less than just the transfer fee of being touted about for the likes of Mudryk and Leao.

We have discussed before how we need to sign someone who can cover both flanks and up top. Zaha can do just that.

The ultimate cover

During his career, he has mainly played right wing – 43% of his game time has come on the right flank.

37% of his career has been spent playing left wing, whilst 20% has come through the middle.

I would be surprised if any other of our targets have similar game time playing across the front 3 positions.

He is Premier League-ready cover for Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus. The ultimate cover man.

But would he want to join?

Now 30-years-old, he will never have another chance to play for a top team.

This January will be 10 years since he joined Manchester United.

That move never worked out for him for one reason or another and he has since spent 9 years back at Crystal Palace.

During that 9 years, he has looked to move on to a higher level a couple of times, often finding his exit blocked by Place demanding huge transfer fees. Now the ball is in his court with his contract expiring in the summer.

At 30, he can not expect to be a week in, week out regular at a top.

Arsenal have Saka and Martinelli, Liverpool have Salah and Diaz, Tottenham Son and Kuluveski. Manchester United have Rashford, Sancho, Martial and Garancho, whilst Chelsea have Sterling, Pulisic and Ziyech.

Manchester City have Foden, Grealish, Mahrez, Silva and Alvarez.

At all of the “traditional top 6” clubs, he would be part of a group of players competing to player, rather than the guaranteed starter he is at Palace.

Any player joining one of these top teams will know they are not guaranteed a starting spot. They are going to compete and challenge to play.

Zaha would know he would get plenty of game time joining Arsenal.

He would only really be competing with Jesus, Martinelli and Saka to start. It will be 4 into 3 – with Nketiah and Smith Rowe offering further cover.

Due to the current make up of our squad, he would probably get the most game time were he to join Arsenal.

The fly in the ointment could be Newcastle – Zaha would walk into their team and the North-East side would likely be able to offer him Champions League football.

But it could take Newcastle another 2 or 3 years to become properly competitive. Would Zaha want to join that, knowing he what’s such little time left in his career? By the time the Geordie’s are challenging for the league, they would probably be looking to upgrade on Zaha.

We suit Zaha, and Zaha suits us. Would it be worthwhile departing from our current transfer policy to sign him?

Keenos

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Based on previous expenditure and revenue, we estimate that Arsenal will likely spend around £120m over the next two transfer windows.

That figure could rise if we see a high profile departure, but you would be surprised to see anyone other than the surplus to requirement loanees leave.

The Arsenal squad is in a really good place right now, which means for the first time in a while we won’t need to sell to free up space prior to buying. We also no longer have unwanted, senior pros on high money that we need to shift.

Taking into account the talent and age of the squad, we are in a position where the transfer funds can be spent on 3 or 4 players rather than needing 6 or 7.

We no longer need “squad position fillers”. The players we target will be important to our present and future. And due to not needing a huge volume of players, we can invest big in individuals.

Manchester City show what you can do when you already have a strong squad.

In the last two seasons, they have invested big in a couple of first team players, then also added a couple of younger players for the future (outside of buying youth players who are lined out).

In 2021/22 they only really signed Jack Grealish. Then in January 2022 they added Julian Alvarez; with the Argentine not joining until the summer.

This summer it was Erling Haaland and Kalvin Phillips. The senior pair then joined by Sergio Gomes (as an Alex Zinchenko replacement) and Martin Akanji – the Swiss centre back was signed due to an injury crisis at centre back.

Whilst Chelsea and Manchester United have invested heavily in the last two years, City have spent just £243m (Chelsea: £360m, Man U £330m).

So where do I expect us to invest that £120m over the next two windows?

For the first time in decades, it feels like our defence is in a good place.

We have a talented, young group of defenders, and investment will only be required if there are departures (keep your eye on Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney).

I wouldn’t be surprised if both departed us this summer, and if they do the obvious replacement would be Eintracht Frankfurt’s Evan Ndicka.

Ndicka would be available on a free transfer (although transfer are never free of all fees!). I will further blog on him another day!

The two areas I expect major investment in the next two windows is one midfield and the forward line. This is not exactly a groundbreaking opinion.

In midfield, we need to improve on Mohamed Elneny as back-up to Thomas Partey.

Partey is the best in the world plying as that single pivot defensive midfielder, so do not expect us to go for a big name in this area (no Declan Rice).

Likewise, get the likes of Youri Tielemans and Sergej Milinković-Savić out of your mouths. Neither are defensive midfielders or can play that Partey role.

Both might be an option if we decide to sign cover and competition for Granit Xhaka as one of the two 8s (the other side is covered by Martin Odegaard and Fabio Vieira). Again, a blog on this another day.

What we need to be looking at is a young, talented defensive midfielder who we can develop over the next 2-3 season to eventually replace Partey full-time. Basically succession management.

We should be looking at players aged 20-22. Players that would see joining Arsenal to be understudy to Partey as a step up from playing regular football at their current clubs.

They would understand that they would see plenty of game time as they continue their development, and as long as they work hard and keep improving, they will be in pole position to replace the Ghanaian in 2-years time.

The two obvious candidates are Palmeiras’ Danilo and Moises Caciedo of Brighton.

Danilo would be the cheapest of the pair – fee rumoured to be around £20-25m. Caciedo, with his Premier League experience, would cost double that.

The Brazilian would be available in January, the current Brasileiro Série A season finished in November. Brighton, meanwhile, would unlikely want to see Caciedo leave until the summer.

With the above considered, Danilo is a realistic January transfer target.

In the forward line, we need someone who is comfortable out wide and can potentially play up top.

We are heavily relying on Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka in those wide positions. We need to turn two into three and sign an equally talented wide man that can cover both wings.

That would then leave us with Emile Smith Rowe (and his injuries) as 4th choice winger. The Englishman could also be a cover option at 8. I also wonder if he could do a job as a “false 9”.

Mykhailo Mudryk, like Danilo, is one we have been linked with for a while.

Shakhtar Donetsk are rumoured to be demanding in excess of £80m. This is a huge fee for someone so inexperienced, and one I doubt Arsenal would pay.

At that level of investment, we should be targeting Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Alternative PSV’s Cody Gakpo will be half that price.

Wilfried Zaha is a name that needs to be considered as a short term option.

I do think we will get a deal done if we want to for Mudryk. As discussed earlier, we do not need a volume of players which will allow us to spend big on those that do come in where required.

Considering what is happening in Ukraine right now, that deal could happen in January.

If in January we end up with Danilo and Mudryk, that will probably be around 75% of our investment for the next few windows.

A 3rd/4th choice central defender (if Ben White continues at right back) will likely join in the summer, whilst Edu might considering entering the market to add a better back-up striker to Gabriel Jesus.

Eddie Nketiah has not really done it this season, and the jury is still out on Folarin Balogun.

A few have made the case for Ivan Toney, and he would certainly be a good acquisition depending on his betting charges.

The forward option will all depend on how much we have spent in midfield and on Partey cover.

If Arteta decides he is happy with Jesus and one of Nketiah/Balogun, further backed up by Martinelli and a new wide forward, he might instruct the team to get him cover and competition for Xhaka.

Personally, I think he will use Charlie Patino and Smith Rowe in this position. And then summer 2024 could be where we invest big on a Xhaka replacement (he will be just shy of 32 come 2024).

But then if Tielemans is a target, would we want to give up the chance of getting him for free just because we don’t 100% need a new 8 for another 12 months?

Plenty to think about, and whilst we might debate personal, I doubt anyone will debate that we will spend much different to £120m over the next two windows.

Keenos

If you are looking for Christmas presents for the Arsenal fan in your life, check out our store!#AFC inspired cushions, bottle openers, beer mats, hoodies and more!https://t.co/j9tDa3d1pW pic.twitter.com/43PHxPqAaC

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) November 16, 2022