An Ode to Aaron Ramsdale

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Last working day of the year for most (shout out to all those in retail and hospitality who will be working whilst we are sitting having dinner and a glass of port with loved ones).

I am really not sure how this came up for discussion, but recently the WhatsApp group came alive with the idea of replacing Aaron Ramsdale.

It was baffling.

Now Ramsdale is not perfect. You probably would not class him in the top 10 keepers in the world. But that does not mean he is not the best choice for Arsenal.

Football is all about styles, and signing the right players to fit that style.

Some might think a goal keeper is not impacted by the teams style. Afterall, they just stop shots, come out for crosses and kick the ball. But these people would be wrong, and have failed to move with the times.

There are mainly two “styles” of keeper – the Line Keeper and the Sweeper Keeper.

A Life Too Short: The Tragedy of Robert Enke was the first time I realised how important the difference was.

Enke sadly took his own life back in 2009 and the book should be an important read for every football fan, and footballer.

In the book, Enke’s disastrous spell at Barcelona shows how important it is not get your keeper right.

Barcelona played with a high defensive line. The likes of Frank de Boer, Carlos Puyol and Michael Reiziger would defend the halfway line.

To do this, they needed a goal keeper whose starting position would be the edge of the box.

Someone who was quick off the line, and able to sweep up any balls over that top. Enke was not this. He was a “Line Keeper”.

A Line Keeper usually excels at shot stopping, eliminating threats from crosses and quickly recovers after blocking a shot. He rules the 6 yard box.

They tend to not be the quickest, are uncomfortable coming outside of the box, and rarely want the ball at their feet.

Whilst Enke was a better stopper than Roberto Bonano, the Argentine kept the German out of the team.

They then had Victor Valdes coming through.

Valdes was not the best keeper. He was actually average at shot stopping, at coming for crosses. Your traditional attributes needed to be a keeper. But he was brilliant as a sweeper keeper.

He loved being on the edge of the box, loved sprinting out to stop an attack, and was very comfortable on the ball.

Valdes and Enke were two very different keepers. And whenever Enke came in for Valdes he struggled.

Barcelona’s high line did not suit Enke’s style of play.

When he came out from his box, he looked uncomfortable. And when he stayed on his line, Barcelona became too easy to get in behind.

Enke’s first spell of depression came during his spell at Barcelona.

Back to Arsenal. Ramsdale is a Valdes regen.

He might make a few errors, and certainly does not save as many as we like, but he has an important role to play as sweeper keeper.

With Gabriel and William Saliba, we play a very high line. To do that we need someone like Ramsdale who will be quick out the box to shut down those attacks.

Likewise, our goal keeper becomes a 11th outfield player when we are passing the ball around the bach.

I have lost count of how often we have played deep, inviting the press, utilised Ramsdale and then launched a counter attack.

Alisson and Ederson are the two best in world at this. We are not signing either of them.

For me, Ramsdale is in a group of players who can be considered “best of the rest” – alongside the likes of Mike Maignon, David Raya, Geronimo Rulli and Manuel Neuer.

Names floated in the WhastApp group to replace Ramsdale were Gianluigi Donnarumma and Jan Oblak.

Both of these are world class goal keepers. Ramsdale is not.

But both are also Line Keepers, and would struggle at the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City and Barcelona who rely on the keeper being involved in the buold up play. Who need the keeper to have a starting position at the edge of the box.

Oblak is a great example of having a keeper that is perfect for the style of play.

Atletico Madrid play very deep, defensive football. That means Oblak only really needs to be a shot stopper and deal with crosses. Two things he is excellent at.

Move Oblak to Barcelona, ask him to stand on the edge of the box, to cut out balls over the top and join the build up play, and he would flop. He would not be the keeper he currently is.

Same have also called for Edu to “get the cheque book out” and sign Serbia’s Vanja Milinković-Savić.

He is another who is a beast of a keeper that smothers anything that is in the 6-yard box. But no good coming off his line, outside his box.

The likes of Thibaut Courtois, Hugo Lloris and Petr Cech are other examples of Line Keepers. All great at their job, but all Bambi on ice when coming out of their box.

We all remember the bad old days of Bernd Leno who, whilst probably a better shop stopper than Ramsdale, looked like a deer in headlights when he had the ball at his feet.

Ramsdale is 24 and, importantly, home grown.

The only realistic man that could come in for him is AC Milan’s Mike Maignan. But he would not improve us enough to make the transfer worthwhile doing.

So whilst Ramsdale might have his flaws, the names you all mention to replace him also have flaws. And would struggle to play in Arteta’s system.

Ramsdale will be Arsenal’s number one for many years to come.

Keenos

Edu ready to “repeat Vlahovic decision” in January

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The friendly defeat to Juventus had many people saying that shows we NEED to buy in January”.

Those saying this are wrong. We should buy in January but we do not need to buy in January.

Being desperate to do something is what can lead to mistakes. Lead to poor decision making. Leads to departing from a well planned strategy.

Edu and is team will want to recruit in January. They have their targets. Are doing the work in the background and will hope to get the deals done that they want to.

But last January showed we will not make poor decisions just for the sake of getting someone in.

Most fans are calling for us to get in another forward. Someone that can play out wide and potentially cover Gabriel Jesus’s absence down the middle (or allow Gabriel Martinelli to move centrally). You will find very few disagreeing that we should be investing this area. And I completely agree.

Edu will have his list of targets. Seemingly top of that list is Mykhailo Mudryk. Reports are Shakhtar Donetsk are holding out for £85million for the 21-year-old.

That is a huge fee for someone who has played just 66 senior games.

Arsenal will not want to pay anywhere near that figure.

Edu will have this widow and the next two or three planned out. And the more we spend on one player means less available for another. That is why clubs negotiate. Why they don’t just “pay the asking price”.

With around £120m to spend over the next 2 windows, £85m on Mudryk will mean less money for a central midfielder, less money for another forward, and less money for further reinforcements.

If the Ukrainian club do not lower their demands, Arsenal will look elsewhere (and also possibly return in the summer when Mudryk might be cheaper).

But where will both of those options leave us in January?

Well if the plan is to return for Mudryk in the summer, then we probably will not buy a winger in January – the days of getting in short term cover at big costs are over.

If Edu decides to recruit someone other than Mudryk in January, it will be a permanent solution. It will be the next person on the list – someone like Cody Gakpo.

But then what if Gakpo is also unobtainable. As is 3rd on the list. And 4th how far down to we keep going?

We saw last year with the pursuit of Dusan Vlahovic that if a deal for our first choice does not materialise, Edu will happily “keep his powder dry” until the right target appears. And this January, despite us being in the title race, we will follow a similar philosophy.

Last January, Vlahovic was clearly our number one target. Despite our best efforts? He moved to Juventus. Edu did not panic.

He would have known that Jesus would be becoming available in the summer, and the Brazilian was the next man on Edu’s list.

Had he panic bought and got in Dominic Calvert-Lewin or Alexander Isak, we probably would not have been able to recruit Jesus.

Since the last January transfer window shut, Isak has scored just 5 goals. DCL 3. The pair have played a combined 9 Premier League games this season.

Both would have cost in excess of £50m last January and, had history repeated itself, been huge flops for Arsenal.

If Edu can not get his first choice in this January (whether due to him going elsewhere or being out priced), and other long term options do not materialise, then expect him to follow what happened 12 months ago and sign no-one.

If you go too far down your potential targets list, and sign someone just for the sake of getting them in, you will end up with a very costly error.

Lucas Perez is the perfect example of that.

Other deals that summer didn’t happen, and we ended up signing Perez out of no-where. Nearly £20m spent and he was clearly not up to standard. A waste of money.

Edu will be speaking to clubs, to agents, to intermediaries. He will know who is available in January and who is potentially coming available in the summer. He also knows our budget, and how buying someone else will impact other transfers.

Some might moan if we do not get someone in January. They would rather we over pay (and miss future targets as we have less money), or just get anyone in. They are more interested in us making a signing rather than who we sign.

These sort of people are short-termist. Reactionary.

They are also the type of fans that will demand we sign someone short-term, then if it doesn’t work out moan that we wasted money on a short term signing. The club are in a no-win situation with these.

I want us to sign a couple of players in January. An attacker and central midfielder. But they have to be the right players, at the right price.

And if the right players, at the right price, or not on the market, we should keep our pound notes in the pocket.

Edu will be ready to rest the Vlahovic decision from last year in January. He will only spend the money on players he wants. Not just sign someone because we need to buy.

Keenos

5 Reasons Arsenal can win the league

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Morning all. Yesterday we spoke about how finishing 2nd would not be a failure for The Arsenal.

Whilst I maintain that finishing 2nd will represent a good season for us, that does not mean I do not think that we can not win the league. And there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful (and as we know, it is the hope that kills you).

Manchester City dropping off

As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, to win the league we need Man City to have an off-season. although for them, even an off-season will see them gain an incredible points haul.

In the last 5 seasons, Man City have averaged over 91 points a season. And only once have they failed to win the league.

That was in 2019/20, when they only got 81 points. The year Liverpool won it.

For Liverpool to win the title, they needed City to have their worst points haul in the previous 3 seasons (they won 100 & 98 points in the previous 2 seasons).Like Liverpool, we also need Man City to have their worst season in 3 years.

In the last 2 seasons, City have won 86 and 93 points. If City get 86 or less, than Arsenal are with a shout. And as it stands, Man City are on course to get around 86 points.

To hit 86 points, we need to win 15, draw 4, and lose 5 of our remaining 24 games. A tough task but if we quickly regain our form shown pre-World Cup, then 86 points could be on.

That means we could lose to Manchester City (twice), Liverpool (once), Tottenham (once), as well as lose 1 out of the 2 games against Chelsea and Manchester United at home.

Opposing fans have cried that we “played no one” as we built a lead at the top of the league. But in the final 24 games, we just have to keep beating those “nobodies”.

World Cup hangover

Some will try and paint Arsenal as the “big losers” from the World Cup. Gabriel Jesus being the most high profile player to pick up an injury.

The Brazilian is out until February, and that is a blow for the club.

However, Arsenal might have an advantage in the closing stages of the season due to how little action our stars saw in Qatar.

Prior to the World Cup final, our players had played the 5th most minutes of all the Premier League sides out in Qatar.

Whilst the “5th most minutes” does not seem much of a positive, the difference between us and Manchester City is huge:

We are unlikely to add to our total minutes (William Saliba is the only Arsenal man still out in Qatar).

Meanwhile, Manchester City still have one out there, Man U 2, Tottenham 3, Chelsea 2 and Liverpool 1. And all their players are likely to add a further 90 minutes to the total game time (note: this has been written prior to the final so I reserve the right to be wrong).

Man City players have played nearly 4,000 minutes more than Arsenal out in Qatar. And that could be huge come the business end of the season.

Likewise, Man U players have played nearly double ours, and Tottenham and Chelsea close to that. This means when we play those sides, our players could be fresher.

The fact so much of our squad remained in London for the World Cup will also be an advantage – whoever gets “back to speed” first as the games come thick and fast over Christmas could gain a huge advantage.

I41% of Arsenal’s first team squad (10 0f 24 players) were out in Qatar. 76% of Manchester City players were out there (16 of 21).

An early exit for Thomas Partey and Ben White meant they could join the squad out in Dubai for mid-season training.

This has enabled Arsenal to have 3 fairly competitive mid-season friendlies against Lyon, AC Milan and Juventus. Meanwhile Manchester City have had just a single game against Spanish Second Division (and City owned) Girona.

With Gabriel, Kieran Tierney, Martin Odegaard and Eddie Nketiah also starting against AC Milan, 6 of the 11 starters are expected to play against West Ham on Boxing Day.

It could be ‘advantage Arsenal’ in both bouncebackability and end of season squad fitness.

Home v Away

We have a 100% home record this season – including victories over Tottenham and Liverpool. The Emirates is becoming a fortress.

Our away form has also not been too shabby – 6 wins and 6 clean sheets.

But what is perhaps most interesting is we have dragged ourselves to top of the table whilst playing 8 out of 14 games away – and jsut the 6 home games.

Man City, meanwhile, are the opposite. they have played 8 home and just 6 away.

We spoke earlier about Man City being on course to get 86 points. This is based on the simple equation of their current total (32) divided by games (14) and mutiplied by 38. 86 points.

But should we also be taking into account home and away form? Man City average 2.65 points at home this season. And just 1.88 away. And they have 11 home games left to play against 13 away. This means there average points per game is likely to drop over the next 24 games.

Meanwhile,Arsenal (with the aforementioned perfect home record) are average 3 points a game at home, and 2.37 away.

Now whilst I do not expect us to continue winning every home game, have 2 extra home games to play could be a huge advantage. that could be worth 3 or 4 points.

Big 7 fixtures

As mentioned, a lot has been written about “Arsenal not facing anyone decent”.

Whilst the focus was on us, Man City have had an easier opening to the season and drifted through without the criticism we gained.

I mention Big 7 above, as Newcastle must be seen as a top side home and away considering their current Newcastle’s form and what they could do in January. I would not be surprised to see them finish top 6. Maybe even top 4.

Newcastle’s inclusion means that there are “12 tough opponents”, making the Premier League more competitive than ever.

Arsenal have played Man U (A), Spurs (H), Liverpool (H), Chelsea (A). We are yet to play Newcastle or Manchester City.

Man City have played Newcastle (A), Man U (H) and Liverpool (A). Theya re still yet to play Arsenal, Tottenham or Chelsea.

So Arsenal have played 4 out of 12 “tough games” whilst City have played just 3/12.

In the 3 tough games City have played so far, they have averaged 1.88 points per game. Arsenal averaged 2.25 points.

So we have more games at home to play and less games against other “top opponents”. Man City are more likely to drop points in these big games, as well as away from home.

Both sides will drop points against sides they really should beat (Aston Villa, Southampton already), but for now it is advantage Arsenal.

Strengthening in January

Finally, Arsenal are likely to strengthen in January. Manchester City probably will not.

City can probably not improve on their first XI, nor their squad, right now. The players they would need to improve would not be available until the summer. And even then you would struggle to come up with a long list of players who will improve them – beyond the Mbappe’s of this world.

Meanwhile, Arsenal need a defensive midfielder and further forward players (even before Jesus’s injury).

We will likely spend £120million over the next two transfer windows, and are looking to freshen up the squad with two January signings – Mykhaylo Mudryk and Danilo.

So whilst Man City stand still (and it football, if you stand still you go backwards), Arsenal will further strengthen.

So top of the tree, more home games to play, less games against Big 7 opponents, and January signings incoming. We can win the league (although I would still have City down as favourites).

Keenos