From Auoar to Ozil, Partey to Chambers – what business will Arsenal get done before the deadlines?

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It’s October the 1st already.

The garden centres have put the BBQs away and the Christmas decorations are up in store. Yesterday I planted my winter hanging baskets.

Winter is coming, but more important is transfer deadline day is also coming, at least for international transfers.

The transfer window for international slams shut at 11pm on Monday October 5th. However domestic deals can still be made up until 5pm on the 16th of October.

It has been a well written story that Arsenal have too many players.

As it stands, we have 33 first team squad players listed on the website. More importantly than that is we currently have 19 non-home grown players.

We can only register 17 of those.

So players need to be sold, but players also need to be signed.

We are still a Thomas Partey and / or an Houssem Aouar from having a really good team.

Arsenal need to sell to buy. Not just to raise funds but also to free up the squad space – leaving players unregistered is not an option due to contractual issues that could arise.

So what do we expect to happen in the next few days (internationally) and weeks (domestically)?

Sead Kolasinac looks like he is out the door, off to Bayer Leverkusen. By the time this is published he might be gone.

He was rated as one of the best left backs in Germany, having been named in the Bundesliga team of the year in the season before joining Arsenal.

Following Kolasinac out of the door will be Lucas Torreira.

His move to Atletico Madrid will be rubber stamped.

Atlético want a loan with an obligation to buy, whilst Arsenal want a straight sale.

What might happen is a loan with an obligation to buy next season will be agreed, but at slightly higher than what Arsenal want for a transfer this summer.

Arsenal then might use a factoring company to get instant access to next summers transfer fee.

The departure of both will bring Arsenal’s squad size down to 31, and non-home grown contingent to 17. Bang on where we’d need to be.

Whilst you might think “Arsenal still need to sell to buy” there is a school of thought that the club have already written off the futures of Sokratis and Mesut Ozil.

Come deadline day, Arsenal will be happy to sell Sokratis for free, and accept a loan deal for Mesut Ozil where they continue to pay the majority of his wages for the rest of the season.

Both of these deals will probably happen quickly on deadline day as clubs look to take advantage of Arsenal having too many players.

Napoli have already tried to sign Sokratis for nothing. Arsenal rejected the deal but come Monday they will have no choice but to sign off on it.

With Ozil, the club would prefer to ship him out to a side that pays a big chunk of his wages. But the lore he becomes unwanted by Mikel Arteta, and the more Arsenal need rid to bring the squad numbers in line, the less a loaning club would be expected to contribute.

Do not be surprised to see him go to Turkey (or even join Kolasinac at Leverkusen), with Arsenal still paying £250-300k of his weekly wage.

There are 38 weeks left on Ozil’s contract. Arsenal’s fall liability would be around £13.3m. If we can get that done to just £10m, we’d have done well.

Sokratis leaving would also save the club £3.5m in wages, whilst Kolasinac & Torreira leaving frees up a further £7.5m. £11m in total.

Following Kolasinac & Torreira leaving, expect the club to move quickly for Auoar.

With Arsenal mentally writing Sokratis and Ozil off, we do not need to sell them before signing Auoar. The Frenchman can be signed with the two unwanted lads dumped on deadline day.

Deadline day is when we will move for Thomas Partey.

Kolasinac, Torreira, Sokratis & Ozil sold, with Aouar in would leave Arsenal at 16 non home-grown players.

If Arsenal pay the release clause for Partey, they do not need to negotiate with Atlético Madrid. It is just a case of taking the money to the Spanish FA HQ which in turn triggers that release clause. It will be a deal done quickly.

Calum Chambers and Shkodran Mustafi’s injuries have proved to be a hit of a headache for Arsenal this summer.

With the likes of West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace & Newcastle desperate for a centre back, both would have had plenty of interest if they were fit. But no one will take a risk with their injuries

Neither are expected to be fully match fit until the end of October. That is just 8 weeks before the winter window opens.

I would be very surprised if either leaves before January, but we might see a club like Fulham take the risk on Chambers and sign him prior to the October 16th domestic deadline. Expect another loan deal with an obligation to buy next summer for him.

As for Mustafi, expect a “Cedric deal” to be done with him in January.

This year Arsenal signed Cedric on loan, with an agreement for him to join permanently from Southampton in the summer when his contract expired.

Do not be surprised if Lazio or someone else takes Mustafi on loan for the 2nd half of the season, and he later joins that club when his Arsenal contract expires in the summer.

Arsenal would benefit from his wages being paid by someone else for the 2nd half of the season.

Matteo Guendouzi could leave if a big enough hid comes in for him. If not he will stay.

If Arsenal do secure Partey and Aouar, expect Emile Smith Rowe and Joe Willock to be loaned out to Premier League clubs – although these deals will happen closer to the 16th October.

So in summary, we do we predict:

Kolasinac SOLD

Torreira LOAN with obligation to buy

Auoar to be SIGNED

Sokratis to be SOLD for free on transfer deadline day

Ozil to be loaned out on transfer deadline day, Arsenal paying the majority of his wage

Partey to be SIGNED on deadline day

Chambers to leave on LOAN with an obligation to buy prior to October 16th

Mustafi towable on LOAN in January. He will join that club on a free transfer next summer

Willock and Smith Rowe to go out on LOAN closer to October 16th

We will keep track of our predictions and let you know how we get on.

Keenos

Arsenal should use Liverpool rather than Manchester City for inspiration

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Liverpool

I am not quite sure what people expected from the game against Liverpool on Monday.

Some of the criticism of Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal players is a bit over the top.

It ignores the fact that Liverpool are reigning champions, a side that finished 18 points ahead of 2nd place last season, and 43 points ahead of Arsenal.

They have not lost a Premier League home game since April 2017 – a run of 3 seasons unbeaten and 61 games. Of those 61 games, they have won 50.

Liverpool should be what we aspire to.

They have had no owner investment on the playing side, and have got to where they are through good coaching and good recruitment.

Jurgen Klopp is now in his 6th season with Liverpool. He did not turn them around over night.

They finished 8th in his first season, like Arteta’s Arsenal. And then 2 consecutive 4th place finishes. Only Sean Dyche has been at a Premier League club longer.

Anyone that thought Edu and Arteta would turn us into title challengers overnight is deluded.

As Liverpool have shown, building greatness (without throwing hundreds of millions at it) takes time.

Handball

The “new” handball rule has caused a lot of controversy over the weekend. I put “” around the word new as the rule is not actually new.

FIFA introduced a new rule for handball last year. The FA made the decision not to implement it. This year they have.

The only thing new about the handball rule is that IFAB have changed where the ball needs to hit a player on the arm for it to be an offence.

It is now only handball if the ball his you below the sleeve line on the arm, where as previously it was anywhere on the arm.

So the new handball rule will actually see less offences given, as the area on your arm that is counted has been narrowed.

Like whenever a new rule comes out, we will see a spike in offence given before players adapt how they play and things settle down.

We saw this when VAR was introduced, and it led to a lot of penalties given for tugs and hugs at corners. Players quickly adapted how they defend corners and now you rarely see a defender with his hands all over a striker.

The Bundesliga introduced the current handball rule back in 2018/19. This led to a spike of offence, and then last year a reduction as things settled down.

Last season, we saw Italy and Spain adopt the rule which saw penalties for handball increase. It will be interesting to track the data this year to see if offences now reduce.

It is all well and good Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher talking about “natural position” but the position of the arms has only become natural because it has been coached into players.

From a young age as a defender you were told to “make yourself big”. To stick your arms out which makes it harder for an attacker to run around you.

Defenders will quickly learn to keep their arms by their body, or not to jump with their hands above their head.

Eric Dier might have had his back to Andy Carroll at the weekend, but he had no reason for his hands to be away from his body, and above his head.

The defence of “he was not in control of his limbs” is not really a defence. It is Dier’s job to be in control of his limbs, his body.

It will take a few weeks for players, pundits and fans to adjust, and in that time we will see a spike of handball offences. But once players have learned what they can and can not do, we will see that number reduce.

Instead of “experts” demanding the rule be changed, they should take their time explaining the rule and what players can do to combat the offence being given.

Man City Defenders

Ruben Dias £65m
Nathan Ake £40m
Philippe Sandler £2.25m
Aymeric Laporte £57m
John Stones £47.5m
Nicolás Otamendi £32m
Eliaquim Mangala £40m
Martín Demichelis £3.5m
Matija Nastasic £12m
Stefan Savic £6m
Jerome Boateng £11m
Kolo Toure £16m
Joleon Lescott £22m

Since the signing of Vincent Kompany for £6.7m, Manchester City have spent £355million on central defenders.

It reminds me of the England cricket team.

Since Andrew Strauss retired, England have struggled to find a partner for Alistair Cook. And now Cook has retired we have struggled in our quest to find 2 decent openers.

Manchester City are the same with central defenders.

Firstly they spent millions to buy Kompany a partner, and now spending millions to buy him a replacement. Irony is after Kompany, Martin Demichelis was probably their next best defender.

By the time you add in full backs, Manchester City have spent nearly £600m on defenders in 12 years. An incredible amount

Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal improved defensively without buying a player.

Maybe City’s problem, like Arsenal under Unai Emery, is more to do with coaching rather than personnel?

Match Report: Liverpool 3 – 1 Arsenal

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Liverpool (2) 3 Arsenal (1) 1

Premier League

Anfield Stadium, Anfield Road, Anfield, Liverpool L4 0TH

Monday, 28th September 2020. Kick-off time: 8.00pm

 

(4-2-3-1) Bernd Leno; Rob Holding, David Luiz, Kieran Tierney, Hector Bellerin; Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka; Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Willian Borges da Silva, Alexandre Lacazette; Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Substitutes: Gabriel Magalhães, Dani Ceballos, Bukayo Saka, Alex Rúnarsson, Nicolas Pépé, Eddie Nketiah, Sead Kolašinac.

Scorers: Alexandre Lacazette (24 mins)

Yellow Cards: Hector Bellerin, Dani Ceballos

Arsenal Possession Percentage: 34%

Referee: Craig Pawson

Assistant Referees: Lee Betts, Richard West

Fourth Official: Anthony Taylor

VAR Team at Stockley Park: VAR Andre Marriner; AVAR Mark Scholes

Attendance: A maximum of 300 attendees due to UK government coronavirus restructions

 

Our first trip to Anfield this season, and a second one to follow on Thursday evening in the Carabao Cup as well. Our team tonight is a strong one, as nothing else would do when we travel north to visit Liverpool. No surprises on the team sheet tonight, interesting to see that the substitutes’ bench contains some great young players also. Sadly no room for either Mesut Özil nor Joe Willock; perhaps they will be involved in Thursday’s match here in Liverpool 4, who knows? Let’s go!

We started the match fairly solidly enough, with good positioning by our defenders, despite early pressure by Liverpool’s strikers. Our compactness of the team structure managed to frustrate the home team; David Luiz typified the attitude and determination of the defence when he headed away a dangerous Liverpool cross in his own six-yard box as early as the twelfth minute. Bernd Leno made an amazing save from Sadio Mané a few minutes’ later, and it was becoming evident that there is not substitute for paying attention when it comes to a defender playing for Arsenal at Anfield tonight. The home team hit our crossbar when a deflected shot bounced off Hector Bellerin and on to the woodwork; suddenly we broke out of defence, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles ran with the ball deep into the Liverpool half. He crossed it, the ball bounced off Andy Robertson for Alexandre Lacazette to scuff the ball messily over Alisson and into the net. Merely three minutes later, the home side replied with a Sadio Mané goal, which he took from point-blank range, after a Mohamed Salah shot was pushed into the path of the Liverpool striker by Bernd Leno. Eleven minutes before half-time, a Trent Alexander-Arnold cross came off the head of Rob Holding for Andy Robertson to place the ball into our net. Despite the match going against us, every man was playing their part in trying to keep Liverpool from scoring a third before the break. A couple of minutes before the interval, a seventy-yard pass from David Luiz fell into the space behind the Liverpool defence for Ainsley Maitland-Niles to run onto, but sadly he just could not quite get there. And so we went into the break in deficit.

We started the second half more aggressively, taking more risks with movement and long passes, and as a team we started to look more aware of space and possession also. We were making the home side work for their money now, and every time a Liverpool man had the ball, one of our chaps was in close attendance throughout. A quick ball found Alexandre Lacazette on a one-on-one situation with Alisson, and although he tried to chip the Liverpool goalie, he was unsuccessful. Dani Ceballos replaced Granit Xhaka just before the hour, and minutes later Bernd Leno superbly parried a strong shot from Virgil van Dijk, and immediately we counter-attacked, and again Alexandre Lacazette was unlucky not to score from close range. Willian was substituted for Nicolas Pépé with twenty minutes remaining; the home side was, by now, putting us under intense pressure, but the defensive line was holding on. Just. To zip things up a bit, Eddie Nketiah replaced Alexandre Lacazette, and almost immediately got thrown into the action, which by now became real end-to-end stuff at this point in the match. The pace was relentless, the speed quicksilver, the atmosphere tense. With three minutes remaining, Diego Jota placed a right-footed shot past Bernd Leno for Liverpool’s third goal of the night, which, apart from a late chance by Eddie Nketiah that was taken from his foot, was the end of it all.

Soccer Football – Premier League – Liverpool v Arsenal – Anfield, Liverpool, Britain – September 28, 2020. Liverpool’s Diogo Jota celebrates scoring their third goal with teammates Pool via REUTERS/Jason Cairnduff

Okay, we lost, and it hurts, and it’s never easy, but there were some good points in our performance here tonight. We stayed in the game almost right up until the end, still creating chances and were desperately unlucky not to score on a couple of occasions. We are still a work in progress, with a defined learning curve and in many ways have a long way to go; but to come to Anfield to play this Liverpool side, after everything they have achived in the game over the past couple of years, all in all under the circumstances the boys can leave Anfield tonight having learned some valuable lessons,and their heads held high.

Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, as this season is going to be crucial for our future success in all competitions. Stick with the winners. Our next match: Liverpool at Anfield on Thurday, 1st October at 7.45pm (Premier League). Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon.