How terminating Mesut Ozil’s contract could free up money to buy the likes of Gabriel Magalhães

‘How would Arsenal make a saving by paying up Mesut Ozil’s contract?’ I saw for a few ask in response to John Cross’s article declaring that “Arsenal offer to pay off Mesut Ozil’s £18m contract to free up funds for new recruits”.

The question is a reasonable one that is worthwhile asking and exploring.

Were Arsenal to just pay off Ozil’s last year of his contract, it would save the club nothing. However if Arsenal can negotiate a pay off, they might be able to free up some cash even if they do end up paying the full value of the contract.

Arsenal could agree with Ozil that he defers some of his salary.

That he takes £10million now to cancel his contract and a further £8million in 12 months time. This would free up £8million in funds this summer, although reduce next summers funds by £8million.

‘But why would Ozil accept being paid late’ you ask. Another reasonable question.

By having his contract cancelled, Ozil would be free to join another side, and drawing a salary from them.

So he could pocket £10million now, sign a £6.5million a year deal with a Turkish side (£125k a week), and pick up a further £8million in 12 months time for Arsenal.

Instead of pocketing £18million over 12 months, he would be picking up £24.5million.

The advantage for Arsenal is it would immediately free up £8million to be invested elsewhere on wages and amortised transfer fees.

For £8million, Arsenal could pay a new signing £75,000 a week (£3.9m a year).

If they secure the new player on a 5 year deal, Arsenal could pay out a £20million transfer fee and amortise it over the length of the contract – meaning that Arsenal only “declare” 1/5 of the transfer fee each year the player is at the club.

So for 2020/21, that new player would cost Arsenal ~£7.9million (£3.9million in salary, £5million in amortised transfer fee).

It might not seem like much, but ending Ozil’s contract and kicking some of his wage down the road would allow Arsenal to sign someone like Gabriel Magalhaes – or the majority of his transfer and salary at least.

Of course, it would impact Arsenal’s transfer budget next season, but the hope would by then fans are back in the ground and Arsenal are back in the Champions League. At which point paying Ozil £8million for 2021/22 would not have the impact on finances it would now.

The other option that is widely known is that Arsenal “top up” his wages.

So lets say he joins Istanbul Basaksehir, who are after a marques player to replace outgoing Robinho, Arsenal would make up the difference between what the Turkish outfit are paying him and what he would have received from Arsenal.

So if he agrees a £125k a week deal with a side, Arsenal pay him £225k a week. The saving is still the same in £8million, but Arsenal would not need to pay him his contract in full. Just the difference.

The financial benefits of getting Ozil off the books are huge, and will allow Edu and Arteta to bring in additional players who and hungry, have the desire to play football and want to be here.

Note: Some will reply to this that “Ozil does not need to agree to end his contract or leave Arsenal”. Those people are right, but they are also not really Arsenal fans. They are more interested in defending Ozil then wanting what is best for Arsenal.

Keenos

Willian likely but Zaha not as ITKs use Wikipedia as a source

Morning.

So is today the day we buy Willian?

Could it be one of those ones where we are expecting us to announce Willian and we end up announcing Coutinho, Gabriel Magalhães or some other player?

Interestingly, Gabriel Magalhães (yes, I am copy & pasting his name) was left out of the Lille squad for a friendly.

I would still be surprised if we signed the central defender with Pablo Mari and William Saliba recent arrivals. But him joining would also highlight why Mikel Arteta was so desperate for David Luiz to stay.

Luiz could be key in helping his countryman settle.

In recent days we have had European football on the tele, and I could not care less.

I am actually happy that Olympiakos knocked us out of the Europa League. It allowed us to finish the season on the high of the FA Cup. A nice ending to the season.

Teams still in Europa potentially have another 3 games still to play, with the final not for another 11 days on 21st August. The Champions League final is 2 days later.

When you consider the new season starts on 12th September, teams still in Europe will potentially have a little more than 2 weeks off.

It will all be worth it if you lift the trophy at the end of it, but it is a hard slog to end up trophyless.

I am pleased our season finished with the high of the FA Cup win.

On a lighter note, I stumbled across one of those weird Twitter accounts that just copy and paste news headlines all day long. Their bio says they share “Reliable Arsenal FC News” and then they tweet this…

Bit of advice. Wikipedia is not a reliable news source! Do not do what I did 15 years ago and use it as a source in coursework for your law degree.

We have been linked with Wilfried Zaha again after he pointed to a “Zaha to Arsenal sign”. We have already outlined why Arsenal will avoid signing Zaha.

A few former Arsenal youngsters are performing well across Europe.

Jeff Reine-Adelaide and Ismaël Bennacer doing well at Lyon and Napoli alongside Serge Gnabry at Bayern Munich. Might do a blog this week on how youngster should move away for 1st team football rather than sign a new contract and spend 5 years on loan (ala Chelsea).

Neither of these players looked great in an Arsenal shirt. Both took a step down when leaving, got the first team football they desired and are now performing well at a decent level.

More on that later in the week.

Cricket was great.

Have a good day.

Keenos

5 first team stars could make way for new arrivals as Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal rebuild begins

Morning all. Although it might be afternoon by the time I hit publish.

I sit hear having watched an entirely predictable first 10 minutes from England as Pakistan put on a quick fire 30. That little 10 minute session makes a big difference.

But that’s enough about cricket.

The news coming out of Arsenal today is that we need to be prepared for some popular faces to leave Arsenal to fund the rebuild.

The most popular, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is likely to stay. But who could be gone?

Rob Holding

The young Englishman isn’t really that young anymore. He turns 25 in September.

A lot of fans rate him. But he has yet to start 1 Premier League games in a single season.

With the arrivals of Pablo Mari and William Saliba, and the new contract for David Luiz, Holding will be at best 4th choice centre back next season.

We have been heavily linked with Lille’s Gabriel this summer. If we do buy another central defender, Holding will be relegated to 5th.

Holding will never be good enough to be a first team regular for Arsenal. We’d be best cashing in for £20m and reinvesting that on someone like Gabriel who is younger, better, and still improving.

Lucas Torreira

We were all excited about Lucas Torreira when he signed in a couple of years ago, but he has not quite lived up to what we wanted.

He failed to fully nail down a spot under Unai Emery and has barely had a sniff under Mikel Arteta.

Torreira is a very good player, and it is tough to work out just why it has not worked out for him at Arsenal.

Like replacing Holding with Gabriel, selling Torreira and buying Thomas Partey would still Arsenal cashing in on a squad player and signing a starter.

Matteo Guendouzi

In years to come, Arsenal fans are going to look back and either say “we let go a world class midfielder there” or “I’m glad we cashed in when we could”.

There is no doubting Guendouzi’s talent. His attitude is the problem. And it isn’t just what happened at Brighton.

He often undermined Unai Emery by mocking his accent. He showed zero respect for Freddie a Ljungberg. He fell out with Mikel Arteta and the coaching staff in Dubai.

He is clearly immature, despite his mature performances on the pitch. It cost him an FA Cup medal.

Compare that to Dani Ceballos who has overcome a tough transition and has become a key player for Arsenal.

Cash raised from selling Guendouzi and Torreira would finance the dead for Ceballos and Partey.

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

Too little too late from Ainsley it feels.

6 months ago he looked like he had played his last game for the club.

Since the suspension of football was lifted, he has knuckled down and started the FA Cup final.

But he is still a man struggling for an identity.

He isn’t good enough in defence to play right back. He has shown little in the centre of the park to show he deserves a place there.

We’re Arsenal to continue with 3 at the back, he would be starting right wing back ahead of Hector Bellerin. But Arteta will return to 4 at the back next season.

Having signed Cedric for nothing, cashing in on Ainsley Maitland-Niles will be pure profit.

He is a player that would not need to be replaced in the Arsenal squad. Funds raised on him could immediately go to improving elsewhere.

Alexandre Lacazette

With just 10 league goals this season, it has been a tough one for the Frenchman.

Once Aubameyang’s long term future at Arsenal is confirmed, Lacazette could find himself being sold.

With Bukayo Saka set to make the left wing his own, backed up by the incoming Willian, Aubameyang will play upfront next season.

That would leave Lacazette, Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Martinelli backing him up.

It makes little sense on having Lacazette sitting on the bench when his transfer fee and wages can be invested better elsewhere.

Aubameyang upfront backed up by Nketiah and Gabriel is not much weaker. And the funds from Lacazette could go towards buying someone like Coutinho.


So playing Football Manager, what can Arsenal expect from selling the 5? Over £100m?

Holding (£15-20m), Torreira (£20-25m), Maitland-Niles (£15-20m), Guendouzi (£30-40m) & Lacazette (£30-35m).

That could be £110-140m raised. And who would actually be missed?

And then let’s say we go and sign Gabriel, Partey, Coutinho and Willian, as well extend Ceballos’s contract further. That is then a Champions League chasing squad.

Plenty to think about whilst England do their best to give us hope before collapsing in this run chase.

Keenos