Time to write off 2019/20 and look forward to the future under Arteta

Season is basically over lads.

With the news that Manchester City’s ban has been overturned by CAS, top 7 is what is needed for a European tour next season.

Following Sunday’s defeat to Tottenham, we now sit 4 points off of Sheffield United in 7th.

With Arsenal set to play Liverpool next game, I think the best we can hope for is 2 wins from the last 3 games – with Villa away and Watford at home the last two games.

For any chance of finishing 7th, Arsenal need Sheffield united to lose twice.

They travel to Leicester, host Everton, before a trip to Southampton to finish the season.

Leicester have just been spanked by Bournemouth. Their wheels seem to be coming off, although we could not take advantage.

We also need to jump ahead of Tottenham who travel to Newcastle and Crystal Palace, and face Leicester at home.

Spurs will need to win 1, draw one to ensure there is no St Totteringham’s day this year.

And we only have ourselves to blame.

This season will be defined by Arsenal’s inability to hold on to a lead.

We led both Crystal Palace and Watford by 2 goals earlier in the season, only to end up drawing 2-2 in both games. 4 points dropped.

Another 2 points were dropped from a winning position against Wolves at home. That takes us to 6.

We led 1-0 at home against Chelsea only to concede 2 late goals and lose. Running total is now 9 points dropped from winning positions this season.

Back to back dropped points against Crystal Palace and Sheffield United. 1-nil up in both. 1-1 at the final whistle. 4 more points dropped taking us to 13.

We led against Brighton. We lost against Brighton. 16.

Against Leicester we were 1-0 up. They equalised with 6 minutes to go. Another 2 points dropped. 18 in total.

And then finally against Tottenham. 1-0 up. Lost. 21 points in total dropped.

You can not expect to be competitive in the league if you can not keep hold of a lead.

Even if we had have converted half of those dropped points into wins, we would be on 60 points and level with Chelsea in 3rd. Actually we would be above Chelsea as some of those dropped points were against them.

A huge concern is just how often we seem to let wins turn into draws, draws turn into defeats in the last 10 minutes.

In 5 of the 9 games we have dropped points from a winning position in, we have conceded a goal in the last 10 minutes of the game.

Under Unai Emery, we continually fell behind in the first half; leaving us chasing the game. It is the reverse under Mikel Arteta. We take the lead and then lose it.

Hopefully this problem can be resolved as Arteta continues to develop his team in his vision, improving fitness and concentration of players. We also need to finish better, turning a 1-nil lead into a 2-nil and so on.

We are not too far from being a top 4 team.

Since the 1st of January, we have the 4th most points in the league and have conceded just 14 goals in 15 games.

Things are not as bad as people make out. We just need a few tweaks, a few improvements.

But this season is a write off.

FA Cup could be our saviour?

Keenos

 

Match Report: Tottenham 2 – 1 Arsenal

Tottenham Hotspur (1) 2 Arsenal (1) 1
Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, 782 High Rd, Tottenham, London N17 0BX
Sunday, 12th July 2020. Kick-off time: 4.30pm

(3-4-2-1) Emiliano Martínez; Shkodran Mustafi, David Luiz, Sead Kolaƥinac; Hector Bellerin, Dani Ceballos, Granit Xhaka, Kieran Tierney; Nicolas Pépé, Alexandre Lacazette; Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Substitutes: Sokratis Papastathopoulos, Lucas Torreira, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Rob Holding, Cédric Soares, Reiss Nelson, Joe Willock, Matt Macey, Bukayo Saka.
Scorers: Alexandre Lacazette (16 mins)
Yellow Cards: Alexandre Lacazette, Nicolas Pépé, Bukayo Saka
Arsenal Possession Percentage: 63%
Referee: Michael Oliver
Attendance: A maximum of 300 attendees due to UK government coronavirus restrictions

How fitting that the very last London derby of the season for us just happens to be our “friends” down the other end of the Seven Sisters Road. As we have seen so many times before with derbies of this stature, the form guide does tend to be ignored, as anything can happen on the day (and frequently does). Having said that, our current run of results are certainly better than today’s opponents, so let’s see if we can continue our excellent form with an important victory in London N17 this afternoon.

Setting the tone for the day, no doubt, within seconds of the start, Emiliano MartĂ­nez made a fabulous save from a snap shot by Lucas Moura which certainly warmed everyone up rather nicely for the challenge ahead. We started the match rather slowly, playing a close passing game and finding a way through the home side’s defence via exciting runs by Kieran Tierney on the left, where there appeared to be a distinct weakness. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scuffed a shot just outside the six yard box (which was a certain goal) on the twelfth minute, and three minutes later, Alexandre Lacazette picked the ball up from just outside the area, and blasted it into the net past an outstretched Hugo Lloris to give us the lead. Two minutes later, an appalling mistake by Sead KolaĆĄinac led to the equalising goal from Son Heung-Min that not only left David Luiz exposed, but Emiliano MartĂ­nez scrambling to get into position to try and prevent the goal, but to no avail. We started to lose concentration, and Spurs very nearly scored on a couple of occasions before the drinks break, and again just after as well, with only the frame of the goal and a critical touch from Emiliano MartĂ­nez keeping Ben Davies’s shot out of our net. Nicolas PĂ©pĂ© was unlucky not to score with a long-range shot just after the half-hour mark, and with a large percentage of the match now being conducted in our half, we desperately needed to break out to try to grab a goal. Ben Davies brought down Nicolas PĂ©pĂ© just outside the penalty area and with the subsequent free-kick, the shot from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang went narrowly close of the mark. The remaining minutes of the half were mainly a midfield contest between the two clubs, and it was a welcome relief to everyone when referee Michael Oliver blew his whistle to signal the end of the first half.

Within minutes of the restart, Shkodran Mustafi made an excellent tackle to block Lucas Moura’s shot on our goal and the resulting corner was easily cleared by Emiliano MartĂ­nez. Again, as in the first half, we patiently passed and moved our way through the Spurs’ midfield to apply pressure on their goal which resulted in some superb goalscoring chances which sadly came to nothing. After a superb series of moves, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang unluckily hit the Tottenham upright, and sadly Nicolas PĂ©pĂ© found himself with a yellow card for his troubles after a clumsy challenge on Ben Davies shortly afterwards. And still we came forward, with Kieran Tierney making some fabulous runs down the left side (as he did in the first half), and after the subsequent drinks break, we substituted Nicolas PĂ©pĂ© for young Bukayo Saka to give us some fresh legs up front for the remaining twenty minutes. Emiliano MartĂ­nez literally kept us in the game with a magnificent save after a mistake by Shkodran Mustafi and after a short period of action by the home side, we carried on where we left off, with a controlling, disciplined passing game. With ten minutes left of the match, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had a fantastic shot on the half volley which was tipped by the post by Hugo Lloris, and just afterwards, much against the run of play, Toby Alderweireld scored the second goal for the home side with a header from a corner. With six minutes left Mikel Arteta made a triple substitution with Sead KolaĆĄinac, Kieran Tierney and Hector Bellerin being replaced for Joe Willock, Reiss Nelson and CĂ©dric Soares, but with the home side in the asendancy, it was always going to be an uphill struggle for us now. Unfortunately, our chances were very few in injury time, and so it came to pass that we were unable to rescue anything from this match.

An extremely disappointing afternoon overall, especially when you realise that we had sixty-three percent possession, and only four shots on target out of thirteen taken throughout the match. Even more disappointing when it became obvious that we lost the game because of our defensive frailties, something that has dogged us all year, and a point that should not have escaped the attention of Mikel Arteta when he comes to restrengthening the squad in the summer. Today’s result means, that ultimately, barring some kind of Biblical miracle, we will not be playing European football next year, which for a club like Arsenal, is not only marked with despondency, but an outright disgrace, really. Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, as this season is going to be crucial for our future success in all competitions. Stick with the winners. Our next match: Liverpool at Emirates Stadium, Drayton Park, London N5 1BU on Wednesday, 15th July at 8.15pm (Premier League). Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon.

Why has KSE restructured Arsenal’s debt?

Before I start, a little disclaimer. I am not a financial expert. I studied law at university, but then now feels a life time ago. I now work in recruitment.

I enjoy the finances behind football. Reading on it, learning about it, gets the brain cogs going. I would like to think over the years I have learnt and understood a lot; and shared that knowledge through my blogs and on Twitter.

If you want to follow someone who actually knows his stuff, there is only one person on Twitter worth spending your time on. Swiss Ramble.

So it was announced on Thursday evening that Arsenal will redeem their fixed rate bonds. In layman’s term, this is basically the club paying off some of its bank loan.

Now the bonds we have redeemed is not all of the debt still owed from the building of the Emirates Stadium, but is the majority.

In the past, it has been deemed not worthwhile enough to make early repayments in debt.

Like a mortgage on your house, you have to pay Early Repayment Charges to clear the debt early. This is the creditor (ie the bank or mortgage lender) applying penalties for you clearing debt early, and therefore paying less interest over the long run.

The saving over a long period in interest would not have really justified a ÂŁ200m+ pay out by the time the early repayment charge would have been applied.

So what has changed now?

The decision made by KSE to redeem the bonds seems to be driven by cash flow.

As most will know, Arsenal have to keep a certain figure in reserve within the club accounts as part of the lending agreement. This is money that can not be used to pay for new players, for wages. It just has to sit there.

That pot is around ÂŁ37million, according to latest accounts.

By redeeming the bonds, Arsenal will be able to free up the majority of that debt reserve.

Taking into account what is happening in football due to Covid19, cash flow has become very important to the club.

Arsenal have missed out on the yearly windfall from season ticket holders. That money would usually now be in the clubs coffers, and be used to make payments on new transfers.

By freeing up money from the debt reserve, it should allow Arsenal to continue more “normal” operations over the summer period.

So who has paid the debt?

Arsenal have been loaned money by Kroenke Sports & Entertainment (KSE). The company owned by Stan Kroenke. In turn it seems KSE have taken out a loan enabling them to loan money to Arsenal.

Whilst Kroenke is a very rich man, that does not mean he has millions sitting in the bank ready to be spent. Much of his wealth is tied up in assets, such as Arsenal, the LA Rams, various ranches and other businesses.

KSE had to take out a loan when buying out Alisher Usmanov.

So KSE have taken out a loan, to loan Arsenal money, allowing Arsenal to pay off a loan.

What we do not know is what the terms of that loan are.

The bonds Arsenal have redeemed were at 5.14% interest. In comparison Tottenham’s are paying a little over 2.6%.

This is because since 2006 (when Arsenal were issued with the bond) money was a lot more expensive to borrow than it is now.

Since 2006, we have lived through a global recession and are now in the midst of the Covid19 pandemic.

The Bank of England rate is currently 0.10%. Back in 2006 it was 5%, with it being as high as 5.75% in 2007.

A high rate is good for savers, poor for borrows. A low rate good for borrowers, poor for savers. The current Bank of England is the lowest in history.

There has never been a better time to borrow money.

So what KSE have done is borrow money, at likely a lower rate than Arsenal’s 5.14%, loaned that money to Arsenal, likely at a slightly higher rate than what they have borrowed at, enabling Arsenal to pay off debt owed at a much higher interest rate.

It would be like you or me owing a chunk of cash to a pay day loan company at 1333% APR. Then a friend or family member  getting out a loan with Natwest at 2.9%, and loaning that cash to me or you enabling us to pay off the debt at the higher rate.

What we do not fully know is the terms of the loan agreements between KSE and Arsenal.

Chances are KSE will be loaning Arsenal the money at around 0.5% higher than what they have taken the loan out on. This is usual in business.

So lets say KSE took the loan out on similar terms as Spurs – 2.6%. KSE are then charging Arsenal 0.5% more – which equates to 3.1%. Arsenal would still make a big saving on the 5.14% they were paying on the bonds.

And what saves Arsenal money, makes KSE money as the clubs owners.

Payment terms of the deal will be interesting.

Arsenal were due to have paid off their debt by 2031. It wouldn’t be a surprise if KSE have extended this date – how long would depend on what the early repayment charge was.

The ERC would have had to have been paid by Arsenal. KSE would likely have loaned Arsenal this money, therefore increasing Arsenal’s overall debt, but reducing the total we have to pay off once interest is included.

Rather than an agreed repayment date, KSE might have decided to just leave the debt within the club, slowly accruing interest. And then if they ever sell the club, the debt would be repaid then. Chances are, however, is that we will be making yearly repayments.

The key for this deal is that is has freed up the money held for the debt service.

This money will be used in the coming months to pay the bills, pay the wages, buy new players.

So in the long term, Arsenal will not save too much; but in the short term the ÂŁ37million will be very useful.

As time goes on we will probably learn more about all the loan agreements. But what it does is reiterate KSE’s commitment to Arsenal.

Keenos