Tag Archives: She Wore A Yellow Ribbon

Pointless Statistics

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am a stats man and many do have their place in football. I do follow the money ball theory and have read countless books on statistical analysis on football. But you can go too far with football, and as media outlets attempt to find the new thing they can end up inventing a statistic that is simply pointless.

Recently the BBC have created (or adopted) a statistic called “Expected Goals”. The idea being that it shows how many goals should have been scored against how many were scored.

This is pointless as all the matters is the goals actually scored.

Against Manchester United, Arsenal were expected to have scored 4.6 goals based on the chances. Manchester United 1.9 goals. Ignoring the fact that you can not score a decimal point of a goal, Manchester United scored 3 goals, and Arsenal 1.

Now I understand the stats surrounding chances created, shots on target, etc, but how the analysts decided Manchester United should only have scored 1.9 goals when all 3 of their chances were fairly routine is beyond me. It is a baffling statistic.

I have even seen a league table of expected goals – ie how the table would look if each match went to the expected goals rather than the actual. It is like those league tables which are altered to show results if shots that hit the woodwork went in. Or that Chelsea one from years ago which took out all goals by black players.

It is pointless.

At the end of the day, there is only one statistic that really matters, and that is the score at the end of the game.

Keenos

REVEALED: Who is Arsenal’s most influential attacking player?

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Quiz time: Which Arsenal player has the most combined goals and assists this season?

OK, it is a trick question as there are two players that currently lead the way.

Alexandre Lacazette has 8 goals and 1 assists – 9 in total. Alongside him is Aaron Ramsey with 3 goals and 6 assists.

No Arsenal player has more Premier League assists than Aaron Ramsey this season. An incredible statistic considering he does not take corner and free kicks.

He comes in for a lot of criticism, and it is often justified. He has had an up and down career at Arsenal, but his good form this season has gone under the radar.

Now you could argue that his job is to not get goals and assists. That by him bombing forward, getting into advanced positions, leaves a hole in behind him that Granit Xhaka has struggled to fill. But then he also leads the way in tackles and interceptions per game (excluding the defenders).

His problem is that he is not a naturally defensive player. He needs someone in behind him who will cover the ground, someone like N’Golo Kante would have worked perfect in tandem with Ramsey.

For much of his career, Ramsey has been a square peg in a round hole. Expected to do a defensive role in the team, when he actually wants to bomb forward and get involved.

His assist for Alexandre Lacazette against Manchester United was a great example of his ability to make perfectly timed runs into the box. His awareness to head back to the Frenchman was world class.

With both Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil to leave, maybe the time has come for Ramsey to move further up the field – his more natural position where he plays for Wales.

When I see that someone like Leon Goretzka is available on a free transfer, it makes me think that we should go all out for him to play central midfield, and move Aaron Ramsey further forward.

It is not about being cheap, it is about being sensible. Goretzka will become one of the best central midfielders in world football, and Ramsey has proven what he can do in more advanced positions. It would also leave us even more money available to buy someone to partner Ramsey behind Lacazette in the future.

Aaron Ramsey’s good form is probably a surprise to you all.

Keenos

Where do Arsenal need to strengthen in January?

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We have to be realistic when it comes to the January transfer window.

History shows that not much business is done in January. That sides will not go out and buy 5 it 6 players. Arsenal have notoriously done little business in January, and I do not expect that to change.

I would be surprised if Arsene Wenger signed kore than a single player.

So what should we buy in January?

Central Defender

After 3 clean sheets in a row in the Premier League, Arsenal conceded 3 against Manchester United.

This follows conceding 3 against Manchester City and 4 against Liverpool.

Whilst we got clean sheets against Chelsea and Tottenham, we have conceded 19 goals in the league this season. That is 10 more than Manchester United and Manchester City. It is more goals conceded than bottom of the table Swansea.

We have conceded 25 goals in 23 games in all competitions. A statistic which is simply not good enough.

With Shrokdan Mustafi limping off against Manchester United, he looks set for a spell on the sidelines for the second time this season.

More worrying is Laurent Koscielny.

The senior centre back made key errors against Manchester United and looked off the pace.

At 32, he has been managing a long term Achilles problem, and playing 3 times in a week looked to be a step too far for him. Maybe he is on the wain?

A commanding centre back will take the pressure of Koscielny to play every game, and improve a problematic area of the pitch.

Defensive Midfielder

How long have we needed a commanding defensive midfielder for?

We have not had a world class player in this position since Gilberto Silva left in 2008. And not had a specialist in that position since the first incarnation of Matthieu Flamini at Arsenal.

2 seasons ago we had the straight choice between Granit Xhaka and N’Golo Kante. At the time we picked Xhaka due to his superior passing. It looks like a massive mistake.

Back then, I thought Xhaka was an inspired signing. He had the grit and aggression, but could also play a bit.

In hindsight – and Football is very easy in hindsight – we went for the wrong man.

Xhaka has not settled in the Premier League, and looks slow and ponderous on the ball. Signed for his Ball playing ability, he gives it away too much and has been at fault for many goals due to his poor passing.

He is clearly not suited to the deep lying position in the Premier League and is struggling with the pace.

I imagine in Spain or Italy, where you get more time on the ball, he would shine. He should also potentially play higher up the field, like he did for Borussia Monchengladbach and for Switzerland.

Out poor defensive performance this season is not just down to the defence, but also down to the midfield.

Xhaka does not give the defence enough cover, and his sloppy play has led to many goals conceded. He is not the solution to our defensive midfield problem.

Sanchez / Ozil Replacement

Both will leave us this summer.

Sanchez has been awful recently.

Getting one replacement in January reduces the pressure in the summer and means one player has been at the club, in English Football, for 6 months.

Not much else to say on this one as we all know both need replacing.

So which position do you think we need to strengthen in January?

Keenos