Tag Archives: She Wore

Leicester City star “unsuitable” to replace Mesut Ozil at Arsenal

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James Maddison has been singled out by many as a long term Mesut Ozil replacement.

The Leicester City midfielder has had a good first season in the Premier League and is clearly a talent.

I first noticed him when playing for Coventry. I remember the commentary during a game that he had an unusual method in taking penalties and free kicks – striking the ball with the back of the inside of his foot to generate more power.

He then joined Norwich before signing for Leicester City in the summer of 2018 for around £20million.

Just 22-years-old, Maddison has a bright future in both the Premier League and for England. However a replacement for Mesut Ozil he is not.

A lot of people have jumped all over the “chances created” statistic to highlight that he would make an ideal replacement for Ozil as Arsenal’s creator in chief. The problem is “chances created” is flawed.

Back in 2011 Liverpool  had a team that was struggling to create chances and score goals. The season before they scored just 59 goals. They went out into the market and recruited midfielder who, in 2010/11, had created a lot of chances. This led them to sign Jordan Henderson, Charlie Adam and Stewart Downing.

On paper it looked a smart decision. They were adding 3 different style of players who all create a high number of chances. What they ignored, however, was that all 3 of those players were corner takers.

The problem with “chances created” as a raw statistic is it includes chances created from corners and free kicks. This means that a player who takes a corner has more of a chance of creating a chance than a player who does not.

Corner taken, header over the bar, “chance created.”

The problem Liverpool faced was that they have signed 3 corner takers, yet Steven Gerrard took all the corners. This resulted in no more chances created from open play and their goals scored dropped to just 47.

Whilst statistics are important, it is even more important that they are analysed correctly. By looking at chances created, Liverpool spent a lot of money on corner takers and it backfired.

Likewise this summer if you Arsenal were looking at a goal scoring midfielder to replace Aaron Ramsey, the dimpliest way to do it would be to just search “goals scored by midfielders.”

Coming out top is Paul Pogba with 13 Premier League goals from midfield. In second is Luka Milivojevic of Crystal Palace with 12. On paper, both would look like good options as goal scoring midfielders.

Yet 7 of Pogba’s 13 Premier League goals came from the penalty spot. And 10 of Milivojevic’s were penalties.

The less educated with think “Pogba has had a brilliant goal scoring season” yet he has scored the same amount of goals from open play in the league as Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

Milivojevic would clearly not be a goal scoring midfielder if it was not for penalties.

So let’s go back to James Maddison.

He has created 100 chances in the Premier League this season, but he has taken 163 corners – the Premier League leader. Compare this to Mesut Ozil who has taken just 38 corners.

After corners, the second easiest way to “stat pad” the chances created statistic is through crosses.

Like with a corner, you swing in enough crosses over the course of the season, your chances create will go up.

Swing in corner + header off target = chance created.

James Maddison is 5th when it comes to “attempted crosses” in the Premier League with 205.

So he has taken 163 corners and crossed the ball 205 times. Those two put together give him 100 chances created.

Mesut Ozil does not take corners and rarely crosses the ball – just 42 crosses this season.

Combining the statistics; Maddison has swung 368 balls into the box from corners and crosses. Ozil just 80 balls slung into the box.

The types of chances both create are very different.

Maddison’s are very basic. Balls into the box giving a striker a headed chance – and a low chance of scoring. Ozil’s are more complex. Inch perfect passes from open play that lead to a better chance for a striker to score.

The way Arsenal play, the midfielders job is not to put crosses in. That is the job of the full backs. Were Maddison to join Arsenal, he would find that route to chances create dry up as he has to adapt to a different style of play.

Whilst in Maddison Arsenal would be recruiting a good corner taker, it is not taking corners that Arsenal would need to replace in Mesut Ozil. It is chances created from open play.

In summary, Maddison creates a lot of chances from corners or from out wide. What we need when looking for an Ozil replacement is someone who creates chances from the middle of the park.

Keenos

Arsenal finish 5th after frustrating season

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A frustrating finish to a frustrating season.

Unai Emery’s first season has certainly been one of two halves. After 2 defeats in the opening two games, the side then went on an incredible unbeaten run where perhaps the positive results betrayed some average performances.

After a tough winter, the side got back on track with 5 Premier League wins in 6 games; closing a 10 point gap from Spurs to be ahead.

As fans began to do their calculations of what we would need to finish not only in 4th place, but above Spurs in 3rd, the side collapsed. 2 wins in the last 7 games saw the side eventually slip to 5th place, just 1 point behind Tottenham and Champions League football next season.

Finishing a point behind that lot up the road has left a strange feeling amongst Arsenal fans. A big load if “ifs” “buts” and “maybes”.

What if Aubameyang scored that 90th minute penalty?
What if we did not collapse against Crystal Palace?
What if we beat Brighton at home?

Aubameyang has taken a bit of stick overnight from Arsenal fans for that penalty loss. This just shows the reactionary idiots amongst our fan base. It was not his fault we finished behind Tottenham. It was the entire teams fault as we were not good enough over 38 league games.

1 point from Crystal Palace and Brighton at home in the run-in is the biggest reason why we finished in 5th. Had we won both, we would have been 3rd. Had we won one, we would have been 4th.

But there is no point dwelling too much on the past, we must look to the future; and that future looks very bright.

Whilst it has not been an exceptional first season for Emery following Arsene Wenger’s departure, he has steadied what was a sinking ship.

Finishing with 7 points more than last season, a place higher and in a European Final; there is plenty to be positive about.

Liverpool finished 8th with 60 points in Jurgen Klopp’s first season
Tottenham finished 5th with 64 points in Mauricio Pochettino’s first season
Arsenal finished 5th with 70 points in Unai Emery’s first season

We are moving in the right direction with the right man, it will just take a couple of seasons to return us to title contenders; just like it has taken Klopp until his 4th season at Liverpool.

Over the summer Emery will have an opportunity to buy the players he wants, the players that will fit his system and way of playing.

The criticism of the Spaniard is that he has not really enforced a style of football on the team. Tactics and formations have been muddled with changes every single week. I excuse this with the fact that he has first had to undo the mess that was left by Wenger, and next season he can build. This year he did not have enough players that he wanted, that he trusted.

Emery will have to establish what formation he wants to play. 4231 or 3412; and build the players around that.

Decisions on his formation could well see some surprising exits from the club. For example is Mesut Ozil suitable to play in a 1 behind the two – as that formation relies on an Aaron Ramsey like 10 who can run between the two strikers and get goals.

If we opt for 1 up top, can we accommodate Premier League top scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette?

Leno
Sokratis Holding CB
Bellerin Xhaka Torreira Kolasinac
AM
Aubameyang Lacazette

Leno
Bellerin Sokratis CB Kolasinac
Xhaka Torreira
Winger Ozil Winger
Aubameyang

In a couple of weeks time we face Chelsea in Baku. Lifting the Europa League will make it a successful first season for Unai Emery.

Whilst the clubs have only received 6,000 tickets each, the feeling is due to transport issues anyone who wants a ticket will get one – so instead of moaning about how few tickets we get, investigate your transport options. That is clearly the bigger issue.

2018/19 has been a frustrating season.

Win our last game and the frustration will dissipate.

Keenos

Baku Flights & Arsenal Big Screening

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Morning all.

What beautiful weather today. Proper cricket weather. Bright sunshine – unlike Wednesday at the Oval where I got to see just 19 overs of play.

Today is the last game of the season and there is still plenty of play for.

If The Arsenal win by loads and Tottenham lose by loads; Arsenal are 4th. It is not going to happen.

Our form in the last month has seen collapse out of top 4 contention. Even just a single point against Everton, Wolves, Crystal Palace or Leicester would see us having a glimmer of hope today. Had we won 1 of those games it would be in our hands.

The only silver lining is at least when we finish 3 points behind Tottenham, idiots on Twitter will not be abusing Aubameyang for THAT penalty miss.

There has been plenty of talk over the last few days about ticket allocations for the Europa League Final.

Whilst 6,000 is a disgrace on paper; I would actually be surprised if that many travel from London in 2 weeks time.

The real crime here is playing the game in Baku – an incredibly hard place to get to from most of Europe.

UEFA announced that the reasoning behind so few tickets was because Baku does not have the infrastructure – hotels, flights – to accommodate more people. Maybe they should have thought about that before handing them the game over Seville and Istanbul.

You have to wonder if some money has changed hands somewhere for Baku to end up the Europa League final.

I am not going.

Guaranteed a ticket, I do not see a logistically sensible way to get there.

3 flights over 15 hours is of no interest to me. I would rather save my £1,000+ for a couple extra Euro aways next season – or finance Cape Town for some cricket.

Reality is most of us are spread thing financially.

Whilst football is important, there are other life experiences that take up money. Whether it is going on holiday with the other half, getting an extension done, going cricket, or one of the many other things money can be spent on.

It is now shame to say “I can’t afford it” or “I just don’t want to spend £1,000”.

When you follow Arsenal up and down the country, it is a huge cost – I estimated I spend £5,000 a couple of years ago on tickets, trains and beer. Sometimes you just have to say no.

For many of those moaning about ticket allocation, I have a simple question: Are you going to Burnley?

Chances are you are not. How about do some domestic aways before moaning about final ticket allocations for a game you probably wouldn’t go to if there were 40,000 tickets available.

We move on.

I have seen a few people say that it is a disgrace that Arsenal will not screen the game at the Emirates. There is a simple reason.

Construction at the ground began just after the last home game of the season on May 5th. The final is on May 29th. It would have been impossible to delay the work for 24 days and have it completed before the beginning of next season.

Arsenal could have applied to play a couple of games away from home next year, but that would not have resolved contractual agreements with the builders.

They would have known for months that work was to start within the last week. They would have scheduled their work force, ordered in materials, etc. Arsenal would have been breaking contractual agreements if, on Friday, they told the contractors that they were unable to start work for another 2 weeks.

Materials would have to be stored, men put out of work. It would have cost thousands.

You would have had builders who would be looking to pay for summer holidays based on the work they will get over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Delay to the start would have meant no money for them.

Sometimes we forget that there is a world beyond football.

I have seen some call for a big screening at Finsbury Park.

This could be a very good option. I am just unsure if the club could get it organised in time.

It is a big operation setting up Finsbury Park for Wireless. It is something that takes a few weeks, not a few days.

They need to erect the stage, big screens, toilets, beer marquees. They need to fence the site off and recruit the stewards. Need to get council sign off and sell tickets. It would not be an easy operation.

It is a good idea, but a logistical nightmare and probably a pipe dream.

Closer to the game we will collate the pubs in the area, who is showing it, how much tickets are, etc.

Until then, enjoy the sunshine.

Keenos

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