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So just what is going on at Arsenal?

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Yesterday Unai Emery confirmed what we all knew. That Arsenal were primarily looking to complete loan deals in January.

The club do have money to spend on players, but it has to be the right players. Not a stop gap. Not a risk. But someone who Sven Mislintat and his team recommend as the right player, a long term option.

If this player is not available in January, it is important that we do not panic buy. Waste money on someone who no one really wants. A new player is for life, not just for January.

Clearly Mislintat, alongside Raul Sanllehi and Unai Emery have decided that the right players are not available. Hence the focus on loan deals.

We all know the club is not floating in money. We don’t have the sugar daddy of Manchester City or the commercial revenue of Manchester United. Liverpool have out bought us over the last 5 years due to some fantastic sales – even though it is Arsenal with the higher net spend.

The restrictions at the club at the moment are not due to the new guys, or even Stan Kroenke. It is due to what has happened before.

For the last 4 or 5 years, the club has been poorly run by Ivan Gazidis; assisted by Arsene Wenger. If Kroenke is guilty of anything, it is not getting rid of the pair years ago.

Go back to the summer of 2015 when we only bought Petr Cech.

The financial pressure from the stadium loan had been partly lifted due to refinancing. We had money to spend, and failed to spend any on an outfield player. It was a catastrophic summer. It not only cost us the league title that year, but has caused us damage that we are suffering now.

4 years on we are paying for the price.

Had we actually signed what we needed to that summer, they would be coming to the end of their 4 year deals this. Their transfer fees would no longer be amortised in the accounts, freeing up further budget to buy players.

Due to the lack of transfer activity that summer, very little will be falling off the accounts, available to spend this summer. Just the couple of millions for Cech. And we are still paying for players that we had to overspend on a year later due to this fiasco.

This will be propped up by Danny Welbeck’s transfer fee no longer being amortised (he signed a 5 year deal in 2014). It is incredible that that summer has cost us so much.

We then have the poor commercial deals by Gazidis.

Whilst he shouted about record deals” the truth was that a high tide rises all ships.

Arsenal were getting more money, from Puma, from Emirates. But the teams behind us (Chelsea and Liverpool) were closing the gap with every new deal. And Manchester United we’re pulling away with every new deal. This has cost us key commercial revenue.

Since 2009, Arsenal’s commercial revenue has risen by 88%. Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea have all increased theirs by over 100%

Then we have player sales.

My estimation is that Arsenal have missed out on over £200n in transfer fees due to poor player sales over recent years.

Liverpool have spent more than £200m on players than Arsenal in the last 5 years. Yet Arsenal have a net spend £50m higher. The Scousers have been better at selling – bringing in over £250m than Arsenal.

This figure is even more incredible when you consider how much they spent on Allison and Virgil van Dijk in the last 12 months.

We all knew that Arsenal had been run poorly over the last half a decade, and it is only becoming clear now just how poorly that was.

Sanllehi is not yet 12 months at the club, and barely 6 months in his new role. Mislintat has been here just over a year. It will take these guys time to fix us. They need to be given that time and our support.

Over the summer I held a simple opinion. That it would take 6 transfer windows from when Mislintat took over to change Arsenal. We have had 2 so far.

In the two we bought in some top signings.

Aubameyang. Torreira, Leno, Sokratis, Mkhitaryan, Guendouzi & Mavropanos.

This summer we will hopefully see a new left back, central defender and winger join the squad. Arsenal could have over £100m to spend, depending on player sales.

That will be 10 new players. 40% of the squad turned over in 18 months.

And it is not just about buying players. It is about selling.

Ramsey, Cech and Welbeck will all leave on a free transfer. Add in Lichsteiner and that is nearly £20m freed up.

Over the last 12 months we have seen Giroud, Walcott, Debuchy & Coquelin also leave. As well as Cazorla, Wilshere, Meetesacker, Perez and Campbell.

Add in Sanchez and that is 13 senior players sold in 3 transfer windows. Over 50% of Arsene Wenger’s 25 man squad.

That should highlight to you all how big a challenge it is at Arsenal. We have had a 50% turn around in playing staff, and are only 1/3 of the way through doing what we need to do.

A line in the sand has to be drawn. Let’s not blame what is happening now on those currently at the club. It is the fault of those who left.

Raul and Sven are having to undo a lot of poor work. They have pretty much having to rebuild the entire squad. The entire club.

I am positive about the future at Arsenal. It feels like some fans have now finally realised what a hole we were in.

Back the new lads.

Keenos

What does Nacho Monreal’s contract extension mean for Sead Kolasinac?

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Arsenal have (reportedly at the time of writing) taken up the option of extending Nacho Monreal’s contract by a further year.

The Spanish international joined the club On 31 January 2013 for a fee believed to be around £8.5 million. In the 6 years he has been at the club, he has proved to be a very good signing, and has consistently been in the top 3 or 4 left backs in the league.

In recent years, he has also shown his worth on the left side of a back 3. Something which Unai emery might consider if he continues to play with 3 at the back.

Monreal turns 33 in February, so his career is coming to an end. However he has never been blessed with electric pace – relying on good positioning in defence and smart movement and solid crossing in attack. There is certainly still another 18 months in himat the top level.

But what does the contract extension mean for Sead Kolasinac?

The Bosnian clearly can not play in a back 4.

Unai Emery and Arsene Wenger before him have changed from a back 4 to a back 3 to accommodate Kolasinac. This is not a long term solution as defences rely on continuity. Both of personnel and system.

This summer Arsenal need to go out and buy another left back. A younger player who can be Monreal’s long term replacement. Ideally already good enough to play ahead of the Spaniard next season. Monreal then acts as back up / cover for his younger team mate.

This leave Kolasinac in a position where, at left back at least, he is surplus to requirements.

So what are Arsenal’s options?

Cash in

We have spoken before about Arsenal selling poorly. Arsenal would easily command a fee in excess of £20 million if they sold Kolasinac. Many clubs both at home and abroad would pay that for him.

If he is not a long term solution, cash in over the summer and reinvest those funds. Monreal is then cover and competition for the new left back, then in 2020 we can explore signing someone to replace Monreal as that cover (or promote from within).

The likes of Ben Chilwell, Ferland Mendy or Kieran Tierney for under £30m. Cashing in on Kolasinac would fund almost all of the transfer fee of a new left back.

Moving him forward

Kolasinac is dangerous in the final third. He is able to muscle his way to the bye-line and get quality crosses in. He has been one of Arsenal most creative players this season.

There is an argument that you can buy a new left back, keep Monreal for a year, and keep Kolasinac as a winger.

Getting forward from the wing is different from left-back, however.

He often makes runs from deep, into space that has been created by his winger (usually Alex Iwobi) dropping inside. When he starts further up the pitch, he has less space to get up to speed in, and would have less space to operate as the opposing full-back would follow him instead the winger.

is left footed and would hug the touchline. He would not be ideal as a regular starter wide left, but he would give Arsenal an attacking option off the bench.

Another option would be if we are chasing the game, to take off the left-back and put Kolasinac on. Sacrificing for the defence for someone who can get forward more and provide quality.

Likewise when defending a lead, he could be bought on to provide further cover for the left back, whilst still offering a threat going forward.

You often saw Arsenal do this in the past when they had Emmanuel Eboue and Bacary Sagna.

Moving forward, Kolasinac would also then double up as the cover for the full back when Monreal leaves.

By renewing Monreal’s contract for a further year, it gives us plenty of options in the summer. Keep Kolasinac. Sell Kolasinac. Use him as a winger. Use Monreal on the left of a back 3.

What is for sure is that we need to buy a long term left back option.

Keenos

Arsenal DO have money to spend in January

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“Arsenal have no money to spend in January” has been continually written this summer by, many journalists. This theory, however, is a miss-truth

Arsenal do have money to spend in January.

In years go by, we have hear Ivan Gazidis say “we are keeping our powder dry”. Last summer we certainly did not keep our powder dry for January. We spent almost every penny that was available.

In total, we spent over £70million. With just a couple of million coming the other in, we had the 4th highest net spend in the league. Only West Ham, Fulham, Chelsea and Liverpool spent more.

Due to a lack of player sales and consistently poor player sales over a long period, Arsenal were unable to generate further funds to buy in more players.

Manchester United, Manchester City & Tottenham all spent less than us once player sales were taken into account.

It should be seen as a positive that Arsenal did not keep some of their summer transfer budget aside to buy someone in January. It meant that we started 2018/19 with the best squad that we financially could.

Despite this, we still have money to spend in January.

Where will this money come from? You ask.

It is fairly simple. We have a budget. We know what money is coming in (commercial revenue, gate receipts, TV money, etc) and what money is going out (wages, player amortisation, running costs of club). It is the money that is in between that determines if you can increase expenditure (buy more players, increase wages) or whether you have to cut costs (sell players).

Arsenal will already know what they have available to buy players in the summer. The money available in January will come from that budget.

What Arsenal need to do, however, is spend sensibly.

Every penny spent in January is one penny less to spend in the summer. That means we need to buy the right the player. Someone who we would have bought regardless of what transfer window it is. What we will not be doing is panic buying. Going for a short term option that then takes out key funds to purchase preferred players.

Lets put it another way.

Say Sven, Raul and Unai have discussed things. They have put £40million aside to buy a central defender.

They will not care if that £40million is spent in January or the summer. What they care about is it is spent on the right player. Someone who will perform in an Arsenal shirt for years to come.

What they will not do is spend £10million on a stop gap defender, who might only be required for 6 months.

This £10million signing would then reduce the budget for the summer. So instead of going for a £40million defender in the summer, we can only go for a £30million one.

So Arsenal do have money to spend this month. It just needs to be spent on the right player; and not a short term stop gap.

Keenos