Tag Archives: Arsenal

Arsenal recruiting the right way

I have long banged the drum that in the transfer market, it is not about what you spend but about who you buy.

People get too fixated on players transfer fees, become to focused on what a clubs total spend is. Instead they should be concentrating on the players they have signed.

Over the summer Arsenal spent around £70m. This was actually a huge sum considering we bought very little in. In fact, over the last 5 years, we have had a larger net spend than Liverpool, but have been hamstrung by poor player sales.

We are a self sufficient club. It is unrealistic to expect Stan Kroenke to pump in billions of pounds (that he does not have) into Arsenal in an attempt to finance us to success.

Like Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Barcelona, Juventus, Real Madrid and Liverpool, we spend what we bring in – from commercial deals, gate receipts and player sales.

In recent years, we have had commercial deals that are far below the likes of Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Barcelona, and poor player sales. However this is all changing with the new leadership team taking us forward.

The key to a successful self sufficient club is to have the 3 sides of the club working in harmony together. Coaching, revenue and recruitment.

At the minute it feels like everything is improving.

The commercial team have signed some good deals recently; and Unai Emery is clearly one of the best coaches in Europe. But one arm that is working extremely well is the recruitment side, under Sven Mislintat.

Mislintat is an intelligent man – and like most who get to the top of his field, will realise it is not what you spend on a player but who you buy.

We see this with the recruitment of both Bernd Leno and Lucas Torreira.

Leno cost just £19.3million from Bayer Leverkusen. Even at the time, it felt incredibly cheap to be securing a goal keeper with over 300 senior games and was still just 26 years old.

A month after Arsenal had secured the goalkeeper, Liverpool announced a world-record £67 million deal for Roma goalkeeper Alisson.

Two weeks later, this fee was smashed by Chelsea. The club announced the £71.6m signing of Kepa from Athletic Bilbao.

Having watched all 3 this season, I am comfortable in saying that they are all in the same class. They are behind David de Gea and Hugo Lloris in the pecking order of Premier League goal keepers, but Leno, Alisson, Kepa and Ederson of Manchester City (£35 million) are in the group just behind. There is not much to split the 4.

To have signed Leno for nearly half of what City paid for Ederson; and a quarter of what Chelsea and Liverpool paid for Kepa and Alisson is brilliant recruitment. It is about who you buy, now what you spend.

Lucas Torreira has also been an incredible signing. for me, he is the best defensive midfielder in the Premier League right now – he is out performing N’Golo Kante.

At just £26.5m, he has been the signing of the season.

Over the summer, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United all bought a defensive midfielder.

Arsenal signed Torreira (£23m), Chelsea Jorginho (£57m), Liverpool Fabinho (£39m) and Manchester United Fred (£47m).

Torreira has been the best signing of the lot.

Jorginho has been a good signing for Chelsea, but he is a bit static and sideways. A more expensive Mikel Arteta with worse hair.

Meanwhile Fred and Fabinho have been horrendous signings.

Fabinho has started just 3 Premier League games this season – just 295 minutes played. whilst big summer signing Fred has completed 90 minutes for Manchester United 3 times in all competitions – and just once since August.

Now Arsenal could have gone big in the summer transfer window. We could have signed Kepa and Fred. Spent £120m on the two. This would have had those fans who shout “we want the owner to spend money, the board to show ambition” purring with delight. But we would have signed inferior players to the ones we got.

£45m spent on Leno and Torreira
£106m spent on Alisson and Fabinho
£128m spent on Kepa and Jorginho

Some people will moan that we did not spend £150m over the summer, but they should be looking at who we bought, not what we spent.

And it is not just the recruitment of these two that have been impressive.

In Matteo Guendouzi, Arsenal have secured one of the best teenage central midfielders in Europe.

No one could have predicted that the £7m shaggy haired Frenchman would take the step up from Ligue 2 in France to Premier League so quickly. Well no one except for maybe diamond eye Sven. He has been a terrific signing.

Sokratis and Stephan Lichtsteiner have also been solid signings. Adding experience and leadership to the squad.

Neither might be long term options in their positions, but both have added something to the squad without too much expenditure.

At £16 million, Sokratis has been a very good acquisition.

Moving forward we still need another central defender next summer, and perhaps the summer after will need to upgrade on Sokratis if Rob Holding or Kostadinos Mavropanos fail to step up. But in the short term Sokratis is a rock at the back, and would certainly be a sufficient partner to someone coming in next season.

And it was not just the summer which saw brilliant recruitment. In January we made a big money signing in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Aubameyang cost £56m, which shows that the club are not adverse to paying out big transfer fees if it is on the right player. And it is the right player that is important. Regardless of if they cost £26m or £56m. It is about sensible recruitment.

The Gabon striker has been sensational since joining the club.

Some have weirdly labelled him a poor signing. Money badly spent. These people are clearly just moaning foe the sake of it.

Aubameyang is currently the Premier League top scorer – level on goals with Sergio Aguero. He has scored 21 goals in 31 games since joining us in January.

The only player who has struggled is Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

You feel that Arsenal did not 100% want the Armenian, that he did not fit into the clubs planning. however the situation of Alexis Sanchez meant that our was forced, and swapping Mkhitaryan for Sanchez was probably the best deal that we could do. I would be surprised if he is at the club beyond 2020.

So in 2018 we have made 3 brilliant acquisitions who have taken Arsenal’s first XI to the next level – Aubameyang, Torreira and Leno. These guys cost less than £100m.

There is still plenty more to do.

Over the next 2 windows I expect Arsenal to make 3 more key signings for the first team. I expect us to recruit a centre back, a left back and a winger.

They might not be big money signings, they might be big money signings. What they will be is the right signings. Wether the club go big for Ousmane Dembele, or cheaper for Nicolas Pépé, Sven will pick the right player and Emery will coach them to a higher level.

Alongside 3 major signings, we will also see a couple of younger players come in. Guendouzi sort of signings. An Elneny replacement and back up / competition for Hector Bellerin the club should look at Aaron Wan-Bissaka of Crystal Palace).

You do not overhaul a squad overnight. Jurgen Klopp is in his 4th season at Liverpool. He has had 6 transfer windows to sort things out. Over the last 3 seasons, Liverpool have finished an average of 21 points behind the champions. This is the first team he has put Liverpool into a title challenging season.

It took Pep Guardiola 3 transfer windows and half a billion quid to make Manchester City champions, and City failed to win the title in the first 3 years of the Sheikh Mansoor project.

If we make another 3 top signings over the next 12 months, and then another 3 in the 12 months after, that will be almost the entire first XI turned around. Sold on and replaced.

Fixing Arsenal is a mid-term project. It will take half a dozen transfer windows. signing the right players regardless of price. Integrating them into the squad before improving again during the next transfer window.

If Arsenal sign a winger in January, then a left back and centre back in the summer- alongside the returning Reiss Nelson – then the first XI and squad will be vastly improved from the 24 months previous.

Arsenal is an exciting place to be right now. Lets not get hung up on what players cost, and how much we are spending. Lets be excited about signing the right players.

Keenos

Arsenal finally return with key trip to Bournemouth

This international break seems to have been the longest in history.

After 7 games in 20 days, Arsenal games were coming thick and fast prior to the recent interlul. No games in the last 14 days has made it a very dull 2 weeks.

So today we are back, and looking to return to winning ways.

17 unbeaten in all competitions masks the fact that Arsenal are 3 Premier League games without a win and have fallen out of the top 4.

Just the 1 win in 5 games – in the League Cup against Blackpool, means we are in the first mini blip of the Unai Emery era.

With league fixtures against Tottenham (home) and Manchester United (away) following Bournemouth, it is essential that the side gets the 3 points on the south coast.

A failure to win could see the wheels come off a bit, and could result in no Premier League wins in 6 games. Victory against Bournemouth, followed by a win in Ukraine and we then go into the North London full of confidence.

Arsenal come into the game with an injury crisis having creeper up on the club.

Long term absentees Laurent Koscielny and Konstantinos Mavropanos remain out.

Unai Emery has offered positive news regarding the Frenchman’s return.

“He feels better in each training,” said Emery of Koscielny. “He is close to being with us for competitive games. We are happy with him.”

“He is with us every day and we are going to think after the international break how we continue working and playing games.”

With Danny Welbeck already sidelined with an ankle injury, strikers Alexandre Lacazette (groin) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (back) are doubts.

The pair have been involved in gym work at London Colney this week, but not participated in full training. Emery will likely be forced to risk one.

Elswhere, full-back Nacho Monreal is sidelined for the next two weeks with the Spaniard suffering with a hamstring injury, a problem which is also affecting Stephan Lichtsteiner.

This will mean that Saed Kolasinac will be given a run in the team, and an opportunity to stake his place to be Arsenal’s left back for the long term future.

We will also probably see the return of Sokratis to the centre of the defence, with Rob Holding the man to miss out.

Expected line up:

Leno

Bellerin Mustafi Sokratis Kolasinac

Torreira Xhaka

Iwobi Ozil Mkhitaryan

Lacazette

Keenos

Arsenal fans unrealistic to expect Stan Kroenke to pump in billions

Last week Stoke City announced £30.1m pre-tax losses for the 2017/18 season. When you consider that they received £98.8m in TV money for that season, to lose £30.1m is huge mismanagement.

Due to the huge TV deals, football (in the top flight at least) is in an era where clubs no longer make huge losses. That they tend to spend within their needs, and turn over a profit.

In 2016/17, Stoke City made a £5m profit, to then turn that into a £30m loss shows how much they overspent in an attempt to remain in the Premier League.

Why clubs are still willing to get themselves hugely into debt, chasing what they deem to be success, it beyond me.

Whether that success is winning the Premier League or remaining in the Premier League, surely clubs have learnt their lessons from the likes of Portsmouth and Leeds?

That whilst getting yourself into debt might help you to be a success in the short term, it is detrimental to the long term stability of the club.

The fact that in 2016/17, 19 of the 20 clubs made a profit showed that every club was spending within their means, and not getting into huge debt chasing the golden egg. Stoke City getting into huge debt in 2017/18 is just silly.

Only really Manchester City in the Premier League are racking up huge debts – but these are being covered by the owners who have recently been exposed for flouting FFP rules and pumping in £2.7bn.

I bring up the situation with Stoke City as some Arsenal fans have consistently called for Stan Kroenke to put his hand into his own pocket, and finance Arsenal to success.

The truth is that Kroenke is not rich enough to finance us to success, and the only way he could do it is to take out loans against the club to free up cash.

Reality is, Manchester City and PSG are the only two top level clubs who are being bankrolled by owners. Every other club – from Real Madrid to Bayern Munich, Manchester United to Juventus, Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona – operate a self sufficient model. They spend what they bring in.

Now some of these clubs might have some dodgy account, be in huge debt, and have flouted EU state funding rules, but for long term success and stability of your club, the aim is to generate and spend your own money.

Arsenal have ran a self sufficient model for as long as I can remember.

The move to the Emirates was part of this. To increase income from gate receipts to close the gap on those clubs at the top who had 60,000+ stadiums.

By promoting Sven Mislintat to Technical Director shows that we plan to continue this self sufficient model.

Intelligent recruitment, exceptional coaching and solid commercial deals are the key to success for almost every club across Europe. Not just sling a load of money at something and hope it works.

Expecting an owner to bankroll you to success is unrealistic. It is a rarity.

Some have pointed to Liverpool recently, but their owners are no different to what Stan Kroenke is doing at Arsenal. Liverpool spend what they bring in, the owners put in nothing.

Overt he last 5 years, Liverpool have spent nearly £200m more than Arsenal in the transfer market. But this additional income has not come from the owners, it also has not come from better commercial deals – both clubs have similar revenue prior to player transactions.

The extra £200m comes from better recruitment over a period of time.

In recent years, Liverpool have bought better than Arsenal. they have also sold better. Think Coutinho. signed for less than £10million, sold for over £100million.

By buying low and selling high, you can continue spending big to improve the squad. And it is the selling that is important.

Over that last 5 years, Arsenal have sold very poor.

A mixture of having some average players on high wages has resulted in us having to accept low transfer deals from other sides just to get the wages off the book. Overpaying some poor players was a huge part of Arsene Wenger’s downfall.

Liverpool have generated nearly £250m more in player sales than Arsenal in the last 5 years. This means that whilst they have spent nearly £200m more gross than Arsenal, their net spend is over £40m less.

https://twitter.com/KeenosAFC/status/1063106962873815041

Improving recruitment and pay structure are two key reasons why Mislintat and Huss Fahmy were appointed and, more recently, promoted.

But Stan Kroenke is worth $8.5bn, he has enough money to bankroll us to success i have seen some claim.

This shows a lack of awareness of people between net worth and available income.

Net worth is the total value of all your assets. Cash, property, shares, businesses, and more, minus what you owe. Theoretically, your net worth is what you would have in cash if you sold every significant possession and paid off all of your debts. You can have a high net worth but have no cash in the bank.

Think of things on a smaller level.

You can have an ordinary man living in London, owning a house and a car, have a pension and own a few shares. Lets say his house is worth £450,000, he owes £150,000 on his mortgage. He recently bought a 2nd hand car for £6,000 and has £25,000 in savings. He has no other debts, credit cards or finance. He would have a net worth of £331,000.

But in his current account, for his day to day spending, he has just £178 – he does not get paid until month end.

What this means is today, if he decides to pay for a holiday, lets say Antigua in the new year, he does not have the cash to pay for it. If he wishes to pay for that holiday, he needs to get into debt. whether it is pay on a credit card or take out a loan.

Say he also wants to get his kitchen done. It will cost around £10,000. For that he might need to go to the bank, release some equity in his house, increase his mortgage.

He might have a net worth of £331,000, but he would need loans and mortgages to pay for holidays and his kitchen.

Kroenke is no different to the ordinary man, he just has a bigger net worth.

He does not have £2.7bn sitting in a bank account, ready to splash on Arsenal.

To buy out Alisher Usmanov, he took out a £550m loan. He was able to get a loan of that size due to his net worth, basically leveraging the debt against his current assets.

Remember the theory above? if he sold all his assets, he would be able to pay off all his debts.

Kroenke has another well known loan also outstanding.

Earlier this year, he and his wife, Ann Walton Kroenke (heiress to the Walmart fortune) took out a $2.25 billion loan for the construction of the LA Rams new new Inglewood stadium.

He still has a net worth of $8.5bn, and his wife $6.8bn, so the eye watering loan is easily manageable. The loan is 14.70% of their net worth. The equivalent of the ordinary man we described above (who has a £310,00 net worth) taking out an additional £45,500 mortgage on his house.

This highlights the cash flow of billionaires.

Kroenke did not have $2.25bn to finance the stadium just sitting around. Nor did he have the £500m+ for the rest of the Arsenal buy out. His finances were tied up in other business. Arsenal, the LA Rams, other sporting interests, working ranches and a huge property portfolio.

Do people really expect him to liquidate a billion pounds worth of assets to free up cash to spend on Arsenal?

The other option could be that he could take out another huge loan, and this brings us back round to Stoke City.

Kroenke’s loan to buy Arsenal was taken out by his English subsidiary KSE UK inc. The only tangible asset is Arsenal Football Club Holdings. The loan was not directly taken against Arsenal, it is against the company that owns the club.

The £600m Kroenke spent buying the whole of the club valued the Gunners at £1.8bn. It is safe to say then that KSE UK inc is also worth around the £1.8bn mark.

However KSE UK inc owes the £550m loan. This would leave the company with a net worth of £1.25bn.

If Kroenke was to do what fans want, and spend £1bn spread over an extended period, he would basically have to take out further loans through KSE UK inc. With Arsenal being the main asset of the group, it would be a loan against Arsenal in everything by name.

So what fans want is for Kroenke to take a £1bn loan against Arsenal to chase success.

This is terrifying.

The loan would be used to cover huge outgoings by the club. Transfer fees, wages. Basically Arsenal would run at huge losses chasing the title, using the money from the loan to cover those loses.

But at some point the KSE UK inc and therefore the club will need to start paying back that loan.

In 2003 Arsenal secured a £260 million loan to finance the stadium. This was due to be paid back over 25 years.

What some fans are calling for is a nearly 4 times that amount. What they do not seem to be concerned about is how the club will pay back that loan, and how long it will take,

If a £1bn loan was taken out, and the money spent over a 10 year period, it could take 50 years to pay back. So we are sacrificing our long term future for short term success. Adults demanding that Kroenke finance Arsenal to the title now, at the risk of the club not winning league titles for their children and grand children’s time. How selfish is that?

And what happens if the TV bubble bursts, or Arsenal struggle for a few years in mid table, or good forbid get relegated. Arsenal would be stuck with a £1bn loan, a business model making huge losses every year, and no way to pay it back.

And £1bn over 10 years old not guarantee any success. Manchester City owners have spent £2.7bn over that period!

Anyone that thinks Stan Kroenke has the means to finance Arsenal the way Sheikh Mansoor finances Manchester City is clearly uneducated and do not understand business and net worth.

And anyone that is happy with the club taking out a £1bn loan to chase success is selfish.

Arsenal need to concentrate on replicating what Manchester United have done. Increase spending by increasing revenue.

During the stadium build, it was often said we were look towards Bayern Munich as how to run a club. That still stands.

A strong academy, good recruitment, quality coaching, solid commercial revenue.

This is how Arsenal not only return to title challengers, but ensure we are up their for future generations.

High spending over a short period is boom and bust. It leads to Stoke City, to Leeds United, to Portsmouth.

Back the club, back the new management team, and understand how finances work.

The club are moving forward. They are in a good place. There are improvements that can be made, and these are happening.

We might not be buying our way to success, but only Manchester City and PSG are currently doing that.

For long term stability, long term success, we need to do it the right way, not the easy way.

Keenos