Author Archives: keenosafc

England need to “play like Arsenal”

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England’s performance last night should have surprised no one. Gareth Southgate is simply not a good manager.

For all those that highlight his “success” since taking charge, having managed us to a World Cup semi-final and Euro final, always remember that Roberto di Matteo was in charge of Chelsea when they won the Champions League.

Like do Matteo, England get where they are in tournaments under Southgate due to the players individual talents rather than Southgate’s tactics or management.

A better manager may well have won us a World Cup or European Championship over the last 6 years.

England’s problems are clear, and the fact Southgate does not recognise them will cost us again

Trent Alexander-Arnold is not a midfielder. He is a right back. Why would you experiment with his positioning at a major tournament having alienated him for 2-years prior?

The Liverpool right back is a fabulous long passer of the ball. But there is no point playing those balls over the top when you have Harry Kane up top.

Kane is one of the best finishers in the world, but he has lost whatever pace he had. He also no longer creates for himself or drifts outwide.

Ian Wright and Gary Linekar got it right with him on ITV and BBC respectively. He is too lethargic and needs to concentrate on scoring goals rather than sauntering back slowly.

Phil Foden is also a delightful player, but he looks lost on the left hand side.

Foden will naturally come inside. But with right footed Trippier at left back, the left hand side then becomes very narrow.

The solution is easy. Play like Arsenal

Set up 4141 and trust in Declan Rice as the loan defensive midfielder.

Ahead of Rice, play Bukayo Saka on the right, with Phil Foden just inside him in the Martin Odegaard 8 position. Foden has played here to success for Manchester City and looked dangerous when he drifted into this position against Denmark.

Jude Bellingham is then in the left hand 8. Again a position he has played for Real Madrid. Bellingham is also comfortable on the left wing which create some fluidity as the winger pushes forward.

And then Ollie Watkins in the left.

Kane is still very good creator when he does drop deep, but he relies on once in behind. Son, Sane, Gnabry, etc.

In my mind it is simple. When Kane drops deep, dragging a central defender with him, Watkins makes the “Son run” from out to in looking to exploit the space left by Kane and get on the flick on. And to avoid congestion, Bellingham pushes further left.

You then play Trent at right back, who can then play those switch balls to Watkins whose pace and power will allow him to dominate the opposing full back.

Trent will also play inverted – similar to Zinchenko and providing the extra man in midfield.

Alternatively, you play Kyle Walker as right back, and then it is John Stones who steps into midfield with Walker plying narrower. Like what Man City do.

It really is this easy. But instead Southgate will probably stay stubborn, look to go 1-nil up and then try and sit on it for 80 minutes.

Going defensive early has cost England everytime we have led a big game under Southgate. It clearly does not work.

Meanwhile, watching Spain against Italy, the Spanish went 1-nil up and continued to attack. Look for a second. They looked electric.

Next game is Monday. If Southgate lines up the same way again he deserves to go if we don’t win. Give another manager a chance with this very talented group of players.

Enjoy your Friday

Keenos

Transfer merry-go-round circumnavigates PSR

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Aston Villa close on signing Ian Maatsen after agreeing terms on six-year deal
Aston Villa forward Jhon Duran ‘excited’ to complete Chelsea transfer

Chelsea looking to sign Jhon Duran for around £40m, whilst Aston Villa pursue Ian Maatsen in a deal worth around £37m has raised a few eyebrows considering both clubs were on the list of “needing to sell” by the end of the month to avoid breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules.

How can they spend without selling first was a common comment under social media posts providing updates on the deal as many scratched their head. But what both clubs are looking to get out of their PSR predicament by scratching each other’s backs.

When you sell a player, 100% of the book profit goes straight into the accounts – the book profit being the difference between what you sell for minus what you still have remaining in amortised transfer fees.

But when you buy a player, you only need to account for 20% of their transfer fee if they are signing a 5-year deal.

Duran was signed in January 2023 by Villa for £14.75m. They have around £10m remaining in amortised transfer fees. If they sell for £40m, they then show a book profit of £30m. That is probably more than enough to keep them out of trouble with PSR.

Ian Maatsen has come through Chelsea’s youth system, so the £37m rumoured transfer fee would be 100% book profit.

Working the deals the other way (based on 5-year deals), Duran will cost Chelsea £8m a year, and Maatsen £7.4m to Villa.

For the 2023/24 accounts, the difference between Chelsea selling Maatsen and buying Duran is £29m, whilst Villa’s side of the deal will show a net £22.6m. These figures might be enough to ensure neither club falls foul to PSR for this year.

To make it clear, what they are doing is not a loophole, nor is either club twisting the rules. But it is the sort of transfer merry-go-round we will begin seeing clubs partake more in.

If you and another club are close to breaking PSR, instead of “having” to sell a star player to stay within the rules, you could just do a deal with another club in a similar situation for a “player swap”. But instead of just swapping players, you assign a fee to both.

At its extreme, you could both pick a 20-year-old academy graduate that you no longer really want, and sell them for £100m. Neither club is really spending anything as you are bank-transferring £100m across and then receiving £100m back. But what you are then doing is adding £100m profit to this years accounts.

Back in 2020, Juventus signed Arthur Melo from Barcelona on a five-year contract for €72m. “Going the other way”, Miralem Pjanić joined Barcelona from Juventus for €60m. The huge fees ensured that both clubs did not breach UEFA FFP rules.

The issue with this tactic is it is very short term.

Whilst you are adding £100m to your accounts for this year (based on if 2 clubs decide to push the situation to the max), it then adds a further £20m to a clubs amortisation costs for the next 4 years. That is money they then need to find. And whilst they could continue repeating the trick, each time you do it adds more to your costs for a player you might not really want.

And this is where a lack of knowledge comes in.

If Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle or Nottingham Forest do this sort of deal together, their fans will celebrate “getting one over” the Premier League, not realising that they are not really solving the fact that their club is badly run.

I think we will see more of these sort of deals over the next few years. Aston Villa are this morning getting linked with Everton’s Lewis Dobbin. Do not be surprised if you see someone like Jacob Ramsey go the other way.

These sort of deals are a move of desperation. They are short-term. The footballing equivalent of taking out a pay day loan. They are not something a serious club would do.

Like Chelsea offering extreme long term contracts to bring down the amortisation costs, these sort of transfers are perfectly fine. But there is a huge downside that should be clear and obvious to all.

Badly run clubs need to come within the rules by ensuring their books naturally balance, and not by relying on selling hotels, training grounds or involving themselves in transfer merry-go-rounds. All of these are short term solutions and will just kick the can of debt and punishment down the road.

Keenos

End Spurs title hopes in September, lift the trophy at Anfield

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Morning! Apologies for the lack of blog yesterday. Life got a bit on top.

To cut a long story short, I got home from Slovenia at 2am Monday morning, then had a funeral that afternoon. By the time I was awake on Tuesday, it was already time to work and my inbox had over 100 unread emails after a week off work.

This morning has been a little more relaxing. I have already watered my plants, had a coffee in the garden, and now have a spare hour to write some random sentences on a keyboard and hope they make some sort of sense.

Yesterday the fixtures were announced. They are, of course, just a provisional list subject to change. We now await for the TV companies and police to interfere. We will know the final fixtures list in May!

The way I see it, Tottenham will be champions of August again, before we end their real title hopes in September. Around 30 games later we will be lifting the league title at Anfield!

I am of course jesting, although I bet this blog gets picked up throughout the season by those who regurgitate these things without reading.

It will be a tough title race once more. Manchester City have raised that bar to needing 90+ points. Finishing 2nd is not a failure.

Some people are already making noises that if Mikel Arteta does not win a trophy this season he should be gone. I do not think some fans realise how hard it is to compete in England.

Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea. 5 into 3 does not go (excluding European success), meaning that at least two clubs a year will miss out on a domestic trophy. And that does not take into account the fact Man City can win it all.

And you also have the smaller teams; the likes of Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Tottenham. They will all be having outside hopes of a trophy.

This is not France, Germany or Spain where their are only one (Munich & PSG) or two (Barcelona and Madrid) real big teams. Winning a trophy in England is harder than any other league in the world.

It has been 4 years since we won the FA Cup during those Covid times. The 12 domestic trophies since then have been split between just 4 teams: Manchester City (6 trophies), Liverpool (3), Manchester United (2) and Leicester City (1).

Chelsea have now won a domestic trophy since 2018 (6 years ago), Tottenham are 16 years without a trophy, Aston Villa and Everton are 28 and 29 years respectively and Newcastle have not seen success for nearly 70 years!

In this Manchester City era, failing to win a trophy should not be seen as a success. Likewise, finishing 8th and winning the League Cup should not really be something to celebrate.

We have a tough start, with away trips to Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City in the opening 5 games. Arteta will need to ensure the team come out of the traps a bit quicker than they did last season. He will already be preparing and planning.

In Super Mik we have a brilliant football mind. He reminds me of Arsene Wenger in the early 00s when every time a job at Munich, Barca, Madrid, etc came up he would be linked.

Those that demand high standards will be left scratching their heads with confusion the day Arteta leaves and is then linked with every top job, including Manchester City, in Europe.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos