Arsenal need to beware the wounded lion

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Today we go again…

Ahead of the game tonight, Mikel Arteta called Bayern Munich “a tough team”, and whilst they having a poor season (by their standards) in the Bundesliga this year, they are still one of the best teams in Europe.

With just 6 games to go, Munich are 16 points behind unbeaten Leverkusen. Their chances of winning the Bundesliga is slim to none. But this is as much to do with Leverkusen’s brilliant form under Xabi Alonso (currently unbeaten), as Munich’s drop off.

Munich’s decline has been gradual over the last few years. And it shows a team that has lost motivation following 11 league titles in a row.

In 2021, they won the league with 78 points (2.3 per game). 2022 that dropped to 77 and last season they won the league with 71. The Bundesliga had become too easy for them and this season complacency has taken over.

They are actually on course for more points than they achieved last season, but no team should be winning the league averaging a smidge over 2 points a game. They are architects of their own downfall.

They made the league so uncompetitive through poaching every other sides top players that when a team did rise up, they found themselves to be unable to raise themselves for the challenge.

On top of their poor form in the league, Munich were knocked out of the German FA Cup by FC Saarbrücken, who play in the 3rd tier. They also lost their version of the Community Shield to RB Leipzig.

But beware the wounded lion.

The Champions League is the only trophy Munich have to win this season to avoid a first trophyless season since 2010/11. That makes them even more dangerous in my eyes.

They remind me of Chelsea in 2012.

Chelsea won the Champions League that year not because of their manager, but because their senior pros, a squad filled with experience and winners, got together and managed themselves to glory. I feel Bayern could go down the same route.

If the likes of Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Muller decide to put their grievances with Thomas Tuchel aside and lead from the front, Munich will still be a threat. The issue is for much of this season is they have not looked as motivated as previous years, and that has spread down to more junior players.

During Arteta’s press conference, Arteta did not really speak about injuries. I think we all know where we are at though – everyone but Jurrien Timber is available.

I am off to Munich in a week. I will not be unhappy with us going out their with a 5-0 win. But I will not get complacent. Munich will still be tough opponents.

UTA.

Keenos

Three more in the bag as Arsenal cruise to victory

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I am getting old.

It is now Monday and I am still exhausted from Saturday. Even with the train problems (which lead me needing 5 trains and a replacement bus to get home), it was a cracking day.

What an important win that was against Brighton. And I know that will be said for every game we win between now and the end of the season, but for me the trip to Brighton and Wolves are huge.

Mikel Arteta’s 90 points is looking spot on. Liverpool will not get 15 from 15 from away trips to Fulham, Everton, West Ham Aston Villa, with a home game against Tottenham the single slice of home meat in the sandwich. I would also expect Manchester City to drop points in at least one game of the remaining 7.

That leaves us being “allowed” to lose one game. And what we need to do is make sure that defeat does not come in one of our “easier” games.

Those games I would consider easier are all the home games, and the away trips to Brighton and Wolves. We need to win every single one which would allow us to then have the defeat away to Manchester United or Tottenham.

If we dropped points against Brighton or Wolves, we would then need to go to both Manchester and Middlesex needing a win.

This season we have dropped some silly points – Fulham at home and away, West Ham at home. We can not afford to repeat any of these results.

6 wins from the last 7 games will leave us with 89 points, one short of Arteta’s magic 90. That will rely on others around us dropping points, but I just can not see either Man City or Liverpool winning 7 from 7. And fi they do, fair play. They will be worth champions.

As for the Brighton victory, I do not think we played particularly well. We were solid in defence and clinical in attack, winning 3-0 without really getting out of 2nd gear. And I guess that is the sign of a top team? Comfortably beating a decent team away without really trying. Let’s not forget Brighton had not lost at home since August!

We were also the net winners of the weekend when it came to goal difference. Another 3 in the bag extends our lead on Manchester City by one, leaving us with 11 better.

That goal difference means that we only need Manchester City to draw one of the last 7 games, and not lose one, for us to win the league (if we lose once). Now whilst an 11 difference can be quickly closed down (3 big wins), it is still a sizeable gap. Likewise the 9 on Liverpool means that if we both lose once, we will finish above them.

Tomorrow it is Munich. They have been poor in the Bundesliga but I feel that will only focus them more on the Champions League.

We just need to keep going, keep winning, and see where we end up at the end of the season.

UTA.

Keenos

Arsenal fans face train issues to Brighton

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Good morning from a replacement Central Line bus.

I was already not really looking forward to the trip due Brighton due to the Central Line being suspended from Leyton into Central London. That meant replacement bus services to Stratford, before jumping on the Elizabeth Line to Farringdon, to catch the Thameslink down to Brighton.

Not a huge issue, the replacement bus would be fairly quick. And I decided to use my time on the bus to write the blog.

Then about half an hour ago someone stuck in the WhatsApp group about Brighton train cancellations.

Since this update at 4am, it looks like things have cleared up a little and some trains are running from St Pancras / Farringon / London Bridge. But it does look like a lot of the Victoria trains are cancelled.

Brighton is just an hour train journey, so the reported additional hour is not a huge delay. It will just mean a couple of extra beers on the train, and a couple less in Yates in Brighton.

This is just what away fans have to deal with on a regular. Especially in this current age where there are strikes and overtime bans! This time the delay is caused by a landslide (out of the train companies control).

I often see online about how “dedicated” foreign fans are, getting up at 2am to watch a game. But setting an alarm, rolling over and turning your laptop on is not tough. Try being stuck in Birmingham for 5 hours waiting for replacement busses due to train cancellations and getting home at 5am!

Hopefully by the time we embark on our return journey in about 10 hours time, the situation has further improved. I really do not want to be scrapping around brighten looking for a cab that will take us back into London.

I will continue my journey. Should be into Stratford soon and then it is onto Farringdon. Couple of beer in the John Oldcastle. They we will continue our journey to the South Coast.

UTA.

Keenos