Tag Archives: Premier League

Fans of the “badly run 6” need to be careful what they wish for

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What a glorious morning!

I am feeling a bit tender from the best weekend of the year weather-wise. Two days spent out in the sunshine drinking quickly takes its toll at my age. A mixture of sunburn and over consumption (food and alcohol) is taking its toll this morning!

Just like we blogged last week, the transfer merry-go-round to circumnavigate PSR hit the headlines over the weekend.

I have no issue with clubs selling youth products at inflated prices, and then buying youth products at equally inflated prices to try and create a short term balance of the books. All this does is kick a huge amount of debt down the road.

These badly run clubs are struggling to make ends meet now. these sort of deals are short term and will just lead them to breach the rules further down the line.

I am laughing at the fans celebrating “getting one over” the Premier League, not realising that these deals merely paper over the cracks and increase the likelihood of issues for seasons to come. It is basically like taking out a loan because you are struggling to pay the mortgage.

If you support another club, are reading this blog and have spent your weekend on social media talking about these deals in a positive mind-set, please educate yourself. These deals are not a loophole, they are not something to be celebrated. They just move a problem from 2024 to 2025 or 2026.

At the weekend I also had a giggle over Everton fans welcoming a bid from Newcastle United for Dominic Calvert-Lewin. if it was Arsenal, Manchester United or Liverpool bidding for their star striker, they would be moaning about PSR forcing them to sell and the “Red Cartel”. But as it is their “friends” at Newcastle, they have no issue selling.

It just shows that everything is just posturing and the attack on “bigger” clubs is just a deflection tactic to take away the attention from their badly run clubs.

The narrative of PSR is always that “it stops clubs competing”. But this is not true. What it actually does is dramatically reduce the risk of clubs going into administration due to owners signing cheques they know they can not pay.

PSR is needed to protect the future of clubs. I am sure if the rules did not exist, Everton would have already entered administration. Aston Villa, meanwhile, with their 80% wages to turnover, would have quickly become the “new Leeds”, bankrupting the club for future generations in an attempt to spend their way up the league.

In the 10 years since PSR / FFP came in, just 6 English clubs have gone into administration. In the 13 years previous, 44 clubs went bust!

You get fans of Newcastle complaining that PSR stops their oil rich, sportswashing Sheikhs bank rolling them to success. But I would rather Newcastle’s spending being restricted and them forced to build naturally, then return to a situation where we were losing 3 or 4 clubs a year to administration.

The issue we arrive to is fans want their clubs to be able to spend what they want, regardless of the long term damage it might to do their club. And it is very short sighted.

What we have learned over the last few months is many fans do not care about the long term survival of their club. They are happy their owners bankrupting their future on the off chance of short term success.

And the irony is, if they got rid of PSR, it would not make the likes of Everton, Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest ore competitive. They would still be the paupers in comparison to Manchester City and Newcastle United who could spend even more! And then their fans will be moaning about an uncompetitive league with state sponsored clubs ruining things!

My final thought is be careful what you wish for.

I always remember Everton fans celebrating when Moshri became owner. About how he would be financed by Usmanov and Everton would become a force to be reckoned with again. A few years down the line and after overspending by hundreds of millions and run poorly, the club is on the brink of administration.

Fans need to stop wishing for short term solutions. The only way to sustain success in football is by having a long term plan.

Enjoy your Monday!

Keenos

Transfer merry-go-round circumnavigates PSR

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Aston Villa close on signing Ian Maatsen after agreeing terms on six-year deal
Aston Villa forward Jhon Duran ‘excited’ to complete Chelsea transfer

Chelsea looking to sign Jhon Duran for around £40m, whilst Aston Villa pursue Ian Maatsen in a deal worth around £37m has raised a few eyebrows considering both clubs were on the list of “needing to sell” by the end of the month to avoid breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules.

How can they spend without selling first was a common comment under social media posts providing updates on the deal as many scratched their head. But what both clubs are looking to get out of their PSR predicament by scratching each other’s backs.

When you sell a player, 100% of the book profit goes straight into the accounts – the book profit being the difference between what you sell for minus what you still have remaining in amortised transfer fees.

But when you buy a player, you only need to account for 20% of their transfer fee if they are signing a 5-year deal.

Duran was signed in January 2023 by Villa for £14.75m. They have around £10m remaining in amortised transfer fees. If they sell for £40m, they then show a book profit of £30m. That is probably more than enough to keep them out of trouble with PSR.

Ian Maatsen has come through Chelsea’s youth system, so the £37m rumoured transfer fee would be 100% book profit.

Working the deals the other way (based on 5-year deals), Duran will cost Chelsea £8m a year, and Maatsen £7.4m to Villa.

For the 2023/24 accounts, the difference between Chelsea selling Maatsen and buying Duran is £29m, whilst Villa’s side of the deal will show a net £22.6m. These figures might be enough to ensure neither club falls foul to PSR for this year.

To make it clear, what they are doing is not a loophole, nor is either club twisting the rules. But it is the sort of transfer merry-go-round we will begin seeing clubs partake more in.

If you and another club are close to breaking PSR, instead of “having” to sell a star player to stay within the rules, you could just do a deal with another club in a similar situation for a “player swap”. But instead of just swapping players, you assign a fee to both.

At its extreme, you could both pick a 20-year-old academy graduate that you no longer really want, and sell them for £100m. Neither club is really spending anything as you are bank-transferring £100m across and then receiving £100m back. But what you are then doing is adding £100m profit to this years accounts.

Back in 2020, Juventus signed Arthur Melo from Barcelona on a five-year contract for €72m. “Going the other way”, Miralem Pjanić joined Barcelona from Juventus for €60m. The huge fees ensured that both clubs did not breach UEFA FFP rules.

The issue with this tactic is it is very short term.

Whilst you are adding £100m to your accounts for this year (based on if 2 clubs decide to push the situation to the max), it then adds a further £20m to a clubs amortisation costs for the next 4 years. That is money they then need to find. And whilst they could continue repeating the trick, each time you do it adds more to your costs for a player you might not really want.

And this is where a lack of knowledge comes in.

If Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle or Nottingham Forest do this sort of deal together, their fans will celebrate “getting one over” the Premier League, not realising that they are not really solving the fact that their club is badly run.

I think we will see more of these sort of deals over the next few years. Aston Villa are this morning getting linked with Everton’s Lewis Dobbin. Do not be surprised if you see someone like Jacob Ramsey go the other way.

These sort of deals are a move of desperation. They are short-term. The footballing equivalent of taking out a pay day loan. They are not something a serious club would do.

Like Chelsea offering extreme long term contracts to bring down the amortisation costs, these sort of transfers are perfectly fine. But there is a huge downside that should be clear and obvious to all.

Badly run clubs need to come within the rules by ensuring their books naturally balance, and not by relying on selling hotels, training grounds or involving themselves in transfer merry-go-rounds. All of these are short term solutions and will just kick the can of debt and punishment down the road.

Keenos

End Spurs title hopes in September, lift the trophy at Anfield

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Morning! Apologies for the lack of blog yesterday. Life got a bit on top.

To cut a long story short, I got home from Slovenia at 2am Monday morning, then had a funeral that afternoon. By the time I was awake on Tuesday, it was already time to work and my inbox had over 100 unread emails after a week off work.

This morning has been a little more relaxing. I have already watered my plants, had a coffee in the garden, and now have a spare hour to write some random sentences on a keyboard and hope they make some sort of sense.

Yesterday the fixtures were announced. They are, of course, just a provisional list subject to change. We now await for the TV companies and police to interfere. We will know the final fixtures list in May!

The way I see it, Tottenham will be champions of August again, before we end their real title hopes in September. Around 30 games later we will be lifting the league title at Anfield!

I am of course jesting, although I bet this blog gets picked up throughout the season by those who regurgitate these things without reading.

It will be a tough title race once more. Manchester City have raised that bar to needing 90+ points. Finishing 2nd is not a failure.

Some people are already making noises that if Mikel Arteta does not win a trophy this season he should be gone. I do not think some fans realise how hard it is to compete in England.

Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea. 5 into 3 does not go (excluding European success), meaning that at least two clubs a year will miss out on a domestic trophy. And that does not take into account the fact Man City can win it all.

And you also have the smaller teams; the likes of Newcastle, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Tottenham. They will all be having outside hopes of a trophy.

This is not France, Germany or Spain where their are only one (Munich & PSG) or two (Barcelona and Madrid) real big teams. Winning a trophy in England is harder than any other league in the world.

It has been 4 years since we won the FA Cup during those Covid times. The 12 domestic trophies since then have been split between just 4 teams: Manchester City (6 trophies), Liverpool (3), Manchester United (2) and Leicester City (1).

Chelsea have now won a domestic trophy since 2018 (6 years ago), Tottenham are 16 years without a trophy, Aston Villa and Everton are 28 and 29 years respectively and Newcastle have not seen success for nearly 70 years!

In this Manchester City era, failing to win a trophy should not be seen as a success. Likewise, finishing 8th and winning the League Cup should not really be something to celebrate.

We have a tough start, with away trips to Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City in the opening 5 games. Arteta will need to ensure the team come out of the traps a bit quicker than they did last season. He will already be preparing and planning.

In Super Mik we have a brilliant football mind. He reminds me of Arsene Wenger in the early 00s when every time a job at Munich, Barca, Madrid, etc came up he would be linked.

Those that demand high standards will be left scratching their heads with confusion the day Arteta leaves and is then linked with every top job, including Manchester City, in Europe.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos