This has probably been the quietest January transfer window in recent memory.
Just 7 teams have signed new players so far this window, with just 5 of those teams making a permanent signing.
Less than £30m has been spent by Premier League clubs this window, with 84% spent by Tottenham on just a single player that no-one had heard of.
No top club has yet to dip their foot into the market, and it is highly unlikely that anyone will.
So why is spending so low this winter?
Teams overspent in the summer
Last summer, more money was spent across the globe on football players than any in history. More than £6.5bn was spent on new recruits, with the Premier League and Saudi Pro League leading the way.
The Premier League alone account for £2.36bn of this spending, and it was not just driven by the big boys – 10 clubs spent more than £100m, including the likes of Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and West Ham.
Clubs maximised their spending last summer. Very few (if any) kept their powder dry to make a transfer or 2 in January. Most do not have a pot to piss in until TV and sponsorship money comes in at the end of this season.
Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR)
In recent days, PSR has become the most used word in football following Nottingham Forest and Everton’s charges for breaching the rules.
These rules are in place to protect clubs from overspending to get out of trouble (or gain success), and then hitting financial issues if they can not spend their way out of trouble.
Whilst fans of some clubs are claiming that PSR is stopping their club spending, it is actually the way their club has been run for the last 3 or 4 years that is restricting them.
I have read West Ham United fans saying PSR is the reason they have not spent this winter – the same fans who blame their owners every window. Which is it? Likewise, Everton have lost nearly half a billion pounds in recent years, but apparently it is PSR stopping them buy.
Whilst I do understand that PSR is having an impact, the main reason clubs are not signing anyone (yet) is because they spent all their money in the summer. What PSR is doing is stopping them spend money they do not have.
Foreign clubs are broke
Nearly half of the total global spend in 2023 was spent by the Premier League and Saudi Pro League. Whilst the global total was up, spending in the top 5 leagues excluding the Premier League was down from the previous record year (2019).
The above graphic highlights why teams in Spain and Italy are pushing for a European Super League. Due to their own leagues being run in such a poor (and corrupt) manner, they no longer generate anywhere near close to what they did back 5 or 6 years ago. As a result, their clubs recieve less income and they have less to spend on transfer.
Bottle neck of transfers
Transfers are often like a line of dominoes; when one piece topples, a myriad follow in a ripple effect. The issue is right now, with money so tight, no pieces are falling.
Lets say Arsenal spend £80m on Ivan Toney. That then gives £80 to Brentford to spend on maybe 4 or 5 players, which in turn gives those clubs £15-20m to spend on players.
A couple of those clubs then spend that £20m on some Manchester United fringe players, which gives them a funds boost and they can then make a single big purchase, which triggers the next load of dominoes to fall.
The problem is the big clubs do not have the big funds to make the dominoes fall.
Lower clubs can also start the chain by purchasing players from bigger clubs.
So lets use Emile Smith Rowe and Eddie Nketiah as an example. You might get Everton spend £40m on Smith Rowe and West Ham spend £30m on Nketiah. That then gives Arsenal £70m in incoming funds, which we can then use on Toney, and it triggers the scenario above.
But clubs like West Ham, Everton, Wolves, Brentford and more do not have the funds (this window) to buy the fringe players which could trigger the domino effect.
And there is also little income coming in from abroad that could kick start deals – Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus and more are broke. They are not looking to buy players from the Premier League, they are only looking to sell.
There is a standstill in the market right now, and whilst it might only take one transfer to pump life into it, I just can not see where that transfer is coming from.
Lack of available quality players
From Arsenal’s point of view, I feel there is a lack of available players that we would actually want to buy.
Before Christmas, there was speculation that we would be in the market for a new left back. But that player would need to be better than Olexsandr Zinchenko, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jurrien Timber. That sort of of player is often not available in January.
That would leave Arsenal buying someone who is not as good as those mentioned. We would be recruiting someone for the sake of getting an additional body in.
As for a striker, Ivan Toney has spoken recently on potentially leaving Brentford, but I imagine most clubs will want to see how he returns to top flight football following 8 months off.
The likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Victor Osimhen are also on our radar, but these are probably summer targets – Osimhen specifically would not be available to play until mid-February, and players notoriously return from the African Cup of Nations unfit.
The reality is, January transfers very rarely win you the league, so we would be better off not taking money out of our summer budget unless a primary target does come onto the market.
I see a lot of chatter amongst Arsenal fans stating that by not making moves we are throwing away the league title. I am not sure that is true.
The truth is no team is making moves in January, and this is due to a combination of a lack of funds, being unable to sell players to generate funds, and a lack of available quality players.
Personally, I would rather wait for the summer and sign a top striker, rather than overpay now for someone who is mid.
Stay warm.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 