Tag Archives: Lukas Podolski

Lukas Podolski – Like a brand new signing

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Before the Southampton game, Arsene Wenger came out with quotes which he has since be mildly derided for:

“I think we can win the title without signing a striker”

He went on to explain his thinking, that deals for top players in January were hard to complete (true) and that the imminent return Lukas Podolski made “it less critical to sign a striker.” A discussion with myself and friend of the site, AFC_Glen pursued, and it got me thinking. And as I began thinking, I thought some more.

Where I ended up was an interesting place. My thoughts about the striker went down 2 tangents. The first thought was ‘What top strikers are out there who are better then Oliver Giroud & gettable in January’ and the second was ‘If we are looking for someone to be back up for Giroud, is there anyone out there better then Podolski?’

For me, the strikers we are chasing fall in to 2 categories. In box 1, we have top draw, marque, better then Giroud, 1st choice strikers. these are the likes of Wayne Rooney, Luiz Suarez, Robert Lewandowski and Karim Benzema. In the 2nd box, we have players who can play 2nd fiddle, back up, or at most challenge, Olivier Giroud. The likes of Alexandre Pato, Edin Dzeko, Mario Balotelli and Javier Hernandez.

A striker is defined by the goals he scores. So for a simple comparison, I worked out their career stats, games per goal, for all club competitions:

Games per goals

Now this simple task highlights what I wan mentioning earlier, about the 2 boxes. To the right of Giroud, you have 4 strikers who are better then him and have the statistics to prove it. to the left, you have the strikers who are either not as good, or at best would challenge him for a 1st team place. The only anomaly is Edin Dzeko, this can be explained by a prolific spell in Germany, where he  averaged 1.67 games a goal. In England, he averages 2.56 games a goal, the exact same as Giroud.

The point I am making (hopefully) is that we have 2 choices. Firstly is to buy someone better then Giroud. Rooney, Benzema, Suarez or Lewandowski. Now whether these players are available, and in January, is another debate. They are clearly better, both in ability and statistics, then Giroud.

If we are looking at the 2nd option, a player to compete and provide competition for Giroud, the question then arises, do we actually need anyone, or is Podolski able to do that job?

Podolski averages 2.58 games per goal. Mario Balotelli the exact same amount. Is it worth going and spending £20million+ on Mario Balotelli to get someone who, statistically, is no better then Lukas Podolski. Moving down the list Pato averages 2.51 and Hernandez 2.46. Again, is it worth spending £10-15million on these in January, are they any better then Lukas Podolski?

Personally, I think if we can not get one of the top 4 whom I mentioned (Rooney, Suarez, Benzema, Lewandowski) then we are better ‘keeping our powder dry’ and waiting until the summer when they may well be more available.

The strikers in the 2nd box are no better then Podolski, a man, remember, who has 46 goals in 110 caps for Germany. That would make him England’s 3rd all time top scorer, had his parents decided to emigrate to the UK rather then Germany when he was 2.

So back to Wenger’s quote, that it is “less critical to sign a striker” now that Podolski is back. I feel this is the truth and, unless a top draw striker is available in January, we can win the league with Giroud, Podolski, Walcott, Bendtner & Sanogo as our striking options.

Keenos

 

Arsenal missing Theo Walcott

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Over the years, Theo Walcott has been much derided by Arsenal fans, England fans and the media. Brilliant one game, anonymous the next. Despite last season being our top scorer with 21 goals, and also adding 14 assists, many still question his place in the side.

It is often said you only realise what a player contributes to the team in general when he does not play. A lot of people underrated Gilberto Silva massively during his early years at the club. It was only during a 7 month lay off with a broken back during the 2004-05 season that many realised how important the invisible wall was to the teams make up.

We saw in the 1-1 draw against WBA how much we missed Theo Walcott. Back in the middle of September, I posted about how Arsenal were playing like a Brazilian side with their new 4231 formation, and how this formation was heavily reliant on having a player with pace on one side. We saw against WBA how when you take this pace away, the side becomes too narrow and does not break the line of the defenders enough.

The WBA game was probably our worst attacking performance of the season. With Wilshere and Ramsey out wide, but both drifting in, we often ended up with all 5 midfielder’s in the middle of the park. No width and more importantly, no pace.

A few instances spring to mind where we desperately missed Walcott. The first was a break away from a corner. Normally whoever brings the ball out looks first for Walcott. With his electric pace, he is key to our counter attacking. Unfortunately, without Walcott, we had no other pace options. Mesut Ozil had the ball and he had a choice between Giroud or Ramsey going forward. He played a good ball to Ramsey, but he had to check in side and by the time he did this, the WBA players were back in droves and the chance was gone. Had Walcott been on the pitch, I am sure we would have seen him rampage down the right before playing the ball into Giroud or Ramsey for a tap in.

The second scenario happened a few times. Often Theo Walcott is a cross field out ball. When play is tight down one win, he is usually in acres of space on the other, allowing us to switch the play and exploit this pace. Unfortunately, without Walcott there, that space went unexploited. Jenkinson tried to push into it, but did not get far enough forward. This meant that play often became to congested and then break down on the other side of the pitch.

Theo Walcott also creates space for others. He often gets ‘chalk on his boots’ which widens the pitch, and his dangerous play usually results in teams having to use their full back, and either a centre back or winger, to close him down. This then gives more space to either his full back, or the midfielder’s. Too often, we were easily closed down against West Brom, as they pushed us into a congested middle, we were unable to create space for ourselves. Had Theo Walcott been playing, this would not of happened.

Yes, Lukas Podolski or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could have also made a difference. Their pace on the wings would have supplied a similar threat to that of Walcott, however Walcott has shown himself in the Premier League to be the better performer of the 3 and we missed him.

With the International break now upon us, we have 2 weeks for Walcott to get fit. I am sure he will play in our next game, and we will be back to our swashbucking best.

The fact we managed to get a point out of a tough game with the amount of injuries we currently have (Sagna, Diaby, Walcott, Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Sanogo) is testament to both our squad depth and current mental strength. As players start to return, we should begin to see just how good this Arsenal side are, and if we are truly title contenders.

Keenos
 

Could Arsenal still be in for Luis Suarez?

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Despite the transfer window shutting less than a week ago, there is already speculation as to who we will buy in January. With us still having over £40 million sitting in the ‘available monies for transfers’ piggy bank, a key signing or two in January could be a deal breaker if we are in the title race, or still in with a chance of a cup.

Where we are clearly most short at the minute is upfront. Whilst Lukas Podolski, Theo Walcott and Yaya Sanogo can provide cover, they are not sufficient to cover Olivier Giroud on a long term basis, if the big Frenchman picks up an injury. Also if we are starting with Walcott, it leaves Podolski as the only real game changing striker on the bench.

As for Giroud, he is good enough, but he is not star quality. He has shown this season already that he is a very clinical finisher. The fox in the box we were crying out for in the early 2000’s. And his size and work rate causes a problem. However there is always a feeling watching him that he is the man who should be as cover for the star man. He rarely creates out of nothing. And his attributes would be much better put to the last 30 minutes of a game:

1) If we are winning, he would be a good substitute to bring on to become more defensive. He can hold up the ball and chase down centrebacks. His height also gives us extra safety at corners.

2) If we are losing, he would be ideal to come on enabling us to play longer, sending high balls into the box, with others then getting around him. He would cause havoc.

In summary, we are still a star striker short. And in my opinion, that man could be Luis Suarez.

Earlier in the summer, June in fact, I predicted Arsenal would sign Mesut Ozil. This was not being me in the know, it was me using logic. Real Madrid had already signed Isco and with Bale on the way, it was clear that Ozil would be available. Around Europe, not many of the other top teams required (Manchester City, Chelsea, PSG) needed an attacking midfielder, and others (ie Seria A clubs) could afford it. It was logically that he was coming to Arsenal.

Using the same logic, it would not surprise me if we ended up signing Luis Suarez in either January or next summer. Here is my reasoning.

It was clear that a striker was top of our list this summer, and that Luis Suarez was one of the main targets. He had the well documented clause that lead us to bid £40,000,001 for him. The understanding was that Liverpool would let him leave a bid of anything over £40m. Hence the £1. Why bid £45m, when a bid of £40m + £1 triggers the same clause.

However Liverpool challenged the legitimacy of this clause, claiming it was not a release clause, but merely meant they had to inform Luis Suarez of the bid. With all parties disagreeing over what the clause meant, the result would mean that Luis Suarez or Arsenal would have to take Liverpool to Court of Arbitration for Sport. Now this would have been time consuming, with appeals and long drawn out legal proceedings. It is unlikely it would of been completed by the end of the transfer window. This lead Arsenal to drop their interest fairly quickly once Liverpool established their stance and made it clear they would defend their opinion in a court of law.

Our actions after this show, to me, that we are still interested in Luis Suarez. A lack of a bid for any other top striker (bar the rumoured interest in Benzema) showed that perhaps Luis Suarez was still on our radar. Our only interest was in a short term option of a year long loan for Demba Ba. This perhaps shows that there were irons in the fire for longer term options. After all, why go and spend £20-30 million on someone you are not quite sure about, when your main target is still in your sights?

And for me, that target is Luis Suarez.

I would not be surprised if, in the next couple of weeks, it is announced that Luis Suarez is taking Liverpool to court for clarification of the release clause. This action is likely to be supported by Arsenal. Now if he wins, it would mean they would have to sell him for a bid over £40m. Worse case scenario, they might enter mediation and agree a new, higher legitimate clause. Or Liverpool attempt to avoid the embarasment of there star striker taking them to court byt offering Suarez a new deal on more money, with a legally tight release clause in it. Again, this could still lead to him joining Arsenal.

There would still be plenty of ‘what ifs’ over the deal:

  • What if after the court case, another side puts in a bid?
  • What if Liverpool are still top of the league come January?
  • What if Liverpool win the case?

For me, it is logical to say that via our actions after the Suarez deal went dead, and on the last day of the transfer window, we are certainly still in the market for a long term star striker. For me that man will be Luis Suarez.

Keenos (not ITK)