Tag Archives: Manchester United F.C.

Walcott v Townsend (and Sturridge, Welbeck, Ox & Bale)

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After 6 goals in 2 games, a lot of England fans have been asking the question “Will Walcott get back into the team.” Well, here is some breaking news. Yes he will.

The player currently occupying his position on the right hand side of a front 3 is flavour of the moment Andros Townsend. Some have claimed he is already better than Theo Walcott. Others say that he will become better than Theo Walcott. Both statements are a fallacy and as likely to come true as me getting below 12 stone. Do not believe me? Theo Walcott is currently 24, Andros Townsend 22. So that no one moans (usually from up the road in North London) I have made a fair comparison. What had Theo Walcott achieved up to the season when he was 22 years of age, due to turn 23, in comparison to Andros Townsend:

Walcott-Townsend

There is nothing to show in Andros Townsend past to prove the statement “Andros Townsend will become better than Theo Walcott”. And taking into account that the year after 2011/12 (my cut off year for Theo Walcott), he went on to score 21 goals and get 14 assists, it is also a fallacy that “Andros Townsend is better than Theo Walcott”. Townsend has 14 career goals. Walcott scored 21 in 1 season. I think some people need to learn the definition of the word ‘better’.

For a final note on this, Theo Walcott has had a ‘terrible’ start to the 2013/14 campaign, whilst Andros Townsend has had a brilliant start. Yet they have both scored just the 1 goal in all competitions, whilst Theo leads the assists 2 to 1. Just shows, Theo being useless so far is still better than Townsend’s best season so far.

Expanded this a little more, there are 3 attacking positions up for grabs in the England squad. In the last 2 games, they have been occupied by Danny Welbeck, Daniel Sturridge and Andros Townsend. Now some are saying that these 3 will be the front 3 for the World Cup, and that all 3 are better than Theo Walcott. Well, lets look at some more stats: England Striker

For the 3 forward positions, there are 5 players in contention (Sorry Manchester United and Manchester City fans, but Ashley Young and James Milner are useless, as for Lennon, if he gets in, Townsend, the future of English football, won’t be there). I have also stuck Gareth Bale in the comparison just to see how the English players compare to the most expensive (and therefore surely the best?) player of all time.

What is obvious from the statistics is Daniel Sturridge is by far the best goalscorer and his lightning form justifies his selection. 17 goals in his last 2 seasons (28 games) is a decent return and whilst he might not be a World Class striker, he is certainly the best England have. As for the wide positions, the one that stands out, obviously, is Theo Walcott. The two statistics a wide forward needs to be judged on his goals and assists. In his career, he is pretty much level with Gareth Bale, and last season they also averaged a similar number. So how much does that make Walcott worth?

It also makes a mockery of people saying he will not get into the side. Last season, Townsend, Welbeck & Chamberlain scored 4 goals and got 9 assists between them. Theo got more than these on his own. Walcott has made the right wing his own at Arsenal, and will be one of the 1st names on the team sheet for England.

The other interesting comparison is between Welbeck, Townsend and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Welbeck currently has the left hand side, but he showed against Poland he is useless. Townsend is left footed, played most of his youth career on the left wing, but he broken through this year playing right wing. And Oxlade-Chamberlain played left wing at the last European Championship for England. It is clear it is between these 3 for the left wing position. So what do the stats say?

Over his career, Welbeck is the more effective, but interestingly, they all averaged around 5 games per goal/assist last campaign. When you consider Walcott averaged 1.3 and Sturridge 1.5, it is clear England’s left wing will be the week side of the attacking trio.

What is also interesting is how poor Oxlade-Chamberlain’s stats are. I have felt since joining Arsenal, his hype does not come through on his stats and 3 goals and 5 assists in his career perhaps highlight this. Although he is just 20 so the youngest of the group. And he has still got more goals and assists then the future of England, Andros Townsend, despite him being 2 years younger (which again makes a mockery of people calling Townsend ‘England’s Future and saying he is better than Theo Walcott).

If England can get the left wing sorted, and with Rooney playing in the hole with 3 ahead of him with pace and finishing ability, England could surprise a lot of people in Brazil. It would be a fairly exciting forward line!

Theo Walcott is nowhere near losing his England spot, least of all to Andros Townsend. And what is clear by the comparison’s is that he is every bit as effective when it comes to playing as a wide forward as Gareth Bale.

Keenos

The overrating of young players by press and fans alike

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At the weekend, 18 year old Belgium winger scored a brace Manchester United. What has followed is the usual hyperbole in the press when a young kid has a good performance.

He is labelled the next superstar. The future of Manchester United. A bright young light. Whilst he is no doubtingly talented, there is a tendency when a youngster has a good performance for him to then be vastly operated.

We have seen it with our own Serge Gnabry over the last couple of weeks. Some average performances alongside some decent performances capped off with a goal against Swansea have led to a lot of Arsenal fans to talk about him having a bright future. Luckily the press do not yet seem to of caught on yet, but within our own ranks, there has been some who have got a little bit over excited.

And it is not a recent phenomenon. Look at Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. He has never really put in the consistent performances to justify his hype, yet some still rate him higher than Theo Walcott, even though Theo has put in a lot of top performances.

Jack Wilshere has also suffered from it. Labelled the future of England, many put him down as one of the first names on the England team sheet. Yet at 21, due to injuries, he sits on just 10 caps. He made his 1st team competitive debut at 16 years and 256 days, but has not yet fulfilled the promise he showed as a teenager.

Gedion Zelalem is also entering this bracket. Already rated highly. Plenty of excitement about him. Yet he has not yet made his debut for the club. 16 year old Swedish striker Jamal Raage is another one being tipped for a bright future, despite only having scored a couple of goals for the under 18s. People are saying he will play for the under 21’s this year and be in the League Cup squad next year. A lot of hype about a kid who no one has really seen.

And it is not just Arsenal who tend to over hype their youngster. Look at Manchester United and the excitement over Adnan Januzaj. Reports are there is currently an International war breaking out between England and Belgium over who he will play for. This a kid who has played just 3 times for Manchester United.

He is not even Manchester United’s youngest ever goal scorer. That accolade falls to Federico Macheda who scored against Aston Villa in 2008-09. The back end of that season, he had played 4 league games, scoring twice, and big things were expected of him the next year.

Five years later, Federico Macheda is still a Manchester United player, but is now on loan at Doncaster Rovers, via VfB Stuttgart, Queens Park Rangers & Sampdoria. And example if needed over the hyperbole of teenage players based on 1 or 2 performances.

I could name many more who fall under this category. Jack Rodwell was supposed to be the future of England’s midfield. James Vaughan is the Premier League’s youngest ever goal scorer. Joe Cole has had a good career, but nothing compared to the hype he had as a youngster. The list of highly rated youngsters who never quite fulfilled their potential go’s on.

So the moral of the story is, before you get too excited over a Gnabry, Zelalem, or Januzaj, there have been better youngsters who have come through who have failed to make the grade.

Do not put players on a pedestal of greatness until they have earned it.

Keenos

Wenger’s new contract justified by Manchester United?

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Reports in this mornings papers indicate that the board are ready to give Arsene Wenger a new contract. This does not come as a surprise. Two months ago, he was reported to of agreed an extension, however the contract talks were put on the back burner as fans attitude to the manager was on a downward spiral.

Imagine the out roar had he, back in August, signed a new 3 year deal on his £7.5m a season wages, whilst not having yet signed a single player. It would have been the straw that broke the camels back for most fans.

“Wenger more interested in lining his own pockets then buying top players” would have been the cry. The noises of ‘Wenger Out’ would have grown. The boycotts would of increase. The protest marches would have been at every game.

However, with the signing of Mesut Ozil and a North London derby win, the world of Arsenal is a bit more positive, so were they to announce a contract extension it would be taken a bit better then were it done 2 months ago. In the world of politics, there is often good days to bury bad news. They will often release news about controversial legislation, or a scandal, when either public sentiment is high, or more likely, when there is a world disaster. I will always remember when 9/11 happened and a Labour aide Emailed:

“It is now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury. Councillors expenses?”

Crass, yes, but he was right. Hiding bad news on a bad news day means that bad news will get less attention. Likewise, announcing bad news when public sentiment is high leads to less criticism. And that is what the board look like they are going to do. Using the positive vibes throughout Arsenal to announce Arsene Wenger’s new contract.

The issue here is Arsene Wenger has underperformed over the last few years. No trophies in 8 years. And even with the signing of Mesut Ozil, he has had a poor transfer window, and at times, made the club look foolish (along with his partners in crime Gazidas & Law). For me, at the moment, he does not deserve a new contract.

There is, however, a key factor we now have to take into account. Manchester United. There transfer dealing’s this summer have been worse than ours. Only securing Marouane Fellaini in the closing stages of the transfer window, after bidding millions for every other top central midfielder in Europe.

Why do I say it is a key factor? Well it is very easy to get rid of a manager. What is not as easy is replacing him.

There are reports that Moyes has already lost the dressing room. That his training methods are draconian. He does not command the respect of the players as Alex Ferguson did. And he does not have the reputation around Europe that is key to attract players.

You have to wonder, had Fergie been in charge of Manchester United, Would Cesc Fabregas have been so quick to turn them down? Would Bale of become a realistic option? Would they of come in late and snatched Mesut Ozil out of our hands? Not only do players want to play for top clubs. Earn top money. They also want to play for top managers. Be developed by top coaches.

Parents do not send their kids to top fee paying school’s such as Eton or Harrow because they have a big reputation, they send them there because they have the best teachers. If Eton sacked all their teachers and replaced them with a bunch of recently qualified, their admissions would drop dramatically. Manchester United are suffering from that. They have lost one of the best managers in the world, and replaced him with someone who is under qualified for the job.

When you hear that a key factor in the signing of Mesut Ozil was a phone call from Arsene Wenger, it shows the Frenchman is still very well respected on the continent. Players from Europe would still want to come to Arsenal to play for him. There are very few managers who command the sort of world wide respect Wenger does.

Guardiola, Ancelotti, Mourinho. That is probably it. Whilst Jurgen Klopp’s stock is very high, he is still on his way up. He garners respect throughout Germany, and would be able to attract a lot of German players. But would he be a key factor if he wanted Benzema? Or Di Maria? Or any non-German player. Probably not.

And that is where Moyes is struggling. He is a fairly unknown quantity throughout Europe. Yes, players will naturally be attracted by Manchester United. But if you were a player from Europe and had 2 identical deals on the table, one from Manchester United and David Moyes, the other from Arsenal and Arsene Wenger, you would probably pick the later.

And that is what is important, and why Arsene Wenger may well get his new contract. If Manchester United struggle this season, if the moans from the dressing room continue to increase, if he can still not attract top stars, it will make the board think ‘Better the devil you know.’

Another example of this is the fiasco Liverpool have been in since sacking Rafa Benitez – another manager who players seem to want to play for. In came Hodgson. Then Dalglish. Now Brendan Rodgers.

Bar Luis Suarez – who at the time was not the established star he is now (the next Kezman?) – Liverpool have failed to land a top player. A collection of average and overpriced Englishman, mixed in with some very poor signings from the continent. Whilst not having Champions League football does not help their cause, not having a top manager is surely a key factor. After all, why would anyone want to play for Brendan Rodgers? He would be a non-factor when it comes to a player making their decision.

Pellegrini at Manchester City is another one. He is well respected throughout Spain, but will he struggle to attract top players from elsewhere in Europe? Does he have the same sort of pull as Roberto Mancini did? It is a case of wait and see.

Would a Michael Laudrup be able to attract star names? Would Roberto Martinez? Would Remi Garde? Would Steve Bould? The answer is no. A Mesut Ozil would not come and play for these managers. A Marco Rues would not. A Cesc Fabregas would not return to Arsenal. And even with in the club, get a poor manager in who does not garner respect of the players would see the likes of Jack Wilshere and Theo Walcott looking elsewhere.

Another good season with Dortmund would see Jurgen Klopp’s star rise further. Enough to make him a key factor in the signing of players. A manager is key to a players decision (after money) and it is important then when Wenger does go, we do not take a step down in his replacement.

Whilst Arsene Wenger’s time at Arsenal is coming to a natural end. He should still go at the end of the season. But it is important we get his replacement right.

We need to move forward as a club. Buy better players. Get a better manager.

Keenos