Tag Archives: Premier League

Havertz, White, Martinelli and more could “leave Arsenal in the next 12 months”

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Having already spent close to £200m (once the Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyorekes and Cristhian Mosquera deals are announced), it is very obvious that Arsenal will need to sell to help balance the books.

Obvious candidates to be sold this summer are Olexsandr Zinchenko, Albert Sambi
Lokonga, Fabio Vieira and Reiss Nelson. These four fall into the “no longer needed, they will depart the club” category. Now it is about selling them.

But alongside these, “over the next 12 months, there needs to be one significant outgoing to recalibrate after recalibrate after what has been a big summer of spending” according to the BBC’s Sami Mokbel, talking on The Latte Firm podcast.

Kai Havertz

A surprise one to open.

With Viktor Gyorekes incoming, Kai Havertz is no longer the undisputed number one striker for Arsenal. And many fans will be delighted with that.

Add into the fact that Declan Rice is making that left sided central role his own, Havertz is looking more and more like a utility player at Arsenal – covering up Gyorekes upfront, and offering a more attack minded option to Rice and Mikel Merino in the midfield position. Havertz would also be cover for Martin Odegaard.

Havertz is our highest paid player, earning in the region of £285,000 a week. That is a huge salary for someone to sit on the bench.

If Gyorekes hits the same heights as his Portugal form and Ethan Nwaneri continues his development over the next 12 months, Havertz might find himself surplus to requirements.

Whilst you would not see us return to a single striker option, you have to feel that his £15m a year wages could be better spent on two “2nd string” players rather than a single man covering 2 or 3 positions.

At the end of this season, Havertz will a book value of £24m, so any offer above £50m would get Arsenal interested, clearing £26m in profit and a huge salary saving.

Ben White

Still sticking with the “I would not have thought of him”.

I remember when we signed Ben White, many were critical. But what a signing he has been.

After a slow-ish start where he came under a lot of criticism, White quickly made the right back position his own. But he now finds himself as 2nd choice right back behind Jurrien Timber. And with Mosquera incoming, he will be 3rd choice as the right sided centre back.

Whilst I am sure Mikel Arteta would prefer not to sell White, the Englishman may wish to leave to reignite his career in 12 months. He will have a book value of just £10m.

Arsenal would expect to get around £40-50m for White, representing a book profit of £30-40m.

Gabriel Martinelli

I will always have a soft spot for Gabriel Martinelli in the way he went from completely unknown to one of the best left wingers in the world in a short space of time.

For me, Martinelli is still one of the best left wingers in the world. But he has also not stepped up to the next level since 2022/23. Whether this is due to his injury taking away a bit of spark, or his isolation due to Mikel Arteta’s attacking design.

Not all players suit all ways of playing. Arteta likes to overload the right, where we are strong with Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard. The left is more locked down defensively with Martinelli and Declan Rice. This means Martinelli’s attacking instincts and blunted and he gets less help from Rice than Odegaard does from Saka.

Any shift to try and provide Martinelli more assistance on the left will be at the detriment of the overload on the right.

Martinelli currently struggles playing the isolated position, and that is why we are looking at one v one merchants such as Nico Williams, Eberechi Eze and Rodrygo.

If Eze or Rodrygo come in, the likelihood is Martinelli will be relegated to the bench. And like with Havertz, his £180k a week salary is a huge financial burden for a player no longer first choice.

At such a low initial transfer fee, almost all of an incoming transfer fee for Martinelli would be profit. Arsenal could expect to see £70m+ in profit, and nearly £10m a year in salary savings.

Leandro Trossard

I was reluctant to add Leandro Trossard to this list initially, as I do not categorise him as significant outgoing.

Trossard has been a wonderful signing since joining in January 2023, and he has shown himself to be a brilliant impact sub. He has an ability to change games off the bench with his instinctive play that no one else in the squad has.

But Trossard has never been anything more than a backup dancer for Arsenal – providing cover on the wings, upfront and as an impact sub. He would not be a significant player to lose, and at £20-£30m would not represent a significant incoming transfer fee. This would only amount to around £10-20m profit were he to be sold this summer.

My feeling is Eze will be coming in to replace Trossard, with Martinelli dropping to the bench. As a result Trossard will be sold, but he will not be the man departing to help balance our books.

Gabriel Jesus

The headache with Gabriel Jesus is how he overcomes his injury.

We are unlikely to see him pull on an Arsenal shirt until December. And that is if all continues to go well with his recovery. That means Jesus will likely be sold in January, at the earliest. But will someone want to take risk on a player with his recent injury record.

Taking into account Jesus’ salary – he is our 2nd highest paid player on around £265k a week – Arsenal will struggle to get a significant transfer fee.

In 2026, Jesus will have a book value of £9m. I think the best we could hope for is £20m in transfer fee (a profit of £11m). But the big saving will be in wages – close to £14m a year.

Jakub Kiwior

Like with Ben White, Kiwior departing will be due to him wanting to leave and not because Mikel Arteta does not want him.

Once Mosquera joins, we will have 8 defenders for 4 positions. I do not remember the last time we were not reliant on full backs covering the centre, or centre backs covering the full backs.

Whilst I get that Riccardo Calafiori, Mosquera and Timber could all provide cover on the left side of defence, I like the idea that we have 4 specialist players providing cover for our 4 main defenders.

However, if Kiwior wants to leave for first team football, we should not stand in his way. And if that is this summer, I do not see the worth of us committing funds to a replacement when we have 3 players that could do the job.

Kiwior has a book value of around £8m, and Arsenal would look at asking for a fee in the region of £40m for the Pole. Whilst he would not be a significant departure in terms of importance to the first team, he would be significant in terms of profit.

Have we missed anyone else? Let us know in the comments.

Arsenal all ready for Rodrygo

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Any deal for Rodrygo was always only going to pick up pace once Real Madrid’s Club World Cup campaign was over.

Last night, the former-great team were knocked out at the semi-final stage of the post-season friendly competition, meaning the door is now open for Arsenal to begin serious talks.

Rodrygo’s stats in the Club World Cup highlights where the Brazilian is in new manager Xabi Alonso’s plans:

Starts: 1
Appearances: 3
Left on the bench: 3
Minutes played: 92 (17% of available minutes)

It has been made very clear to Rodrygo that he is not going to be a regular starter for Alonso, so it is no surprise that his representatives are rumoured to have a meeting with the club next week to discuss their clients future.

Rodrygo’s position at Real Madrid reminds me of Alexis Sanchez back in 2014.

Clearly talented players, both men were consistently played out of position to make way for more high-profile, better players. For Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr, read Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr.

In 2014, Barcelona signed Luis Suarez which left Sanchez as their 4th choice forward. He decided to push for a move to Arsenal where he could flourish in his favoured position and become a global superstar. For a time Sanchez was up there with the best players in the world.

Already competing with Vinicius Jr, Mbappe and Jude Bellingham (when he plays as a false 9), Rodrygo now has the highly talented trio of Endrick, Franco Mastantuono and Gonzalo Garcia to contend with.

At the Club World Cup, Rodrygo has been victim of Xabi Alonson continuing to shuffle the pack.

In the Spaniards 6 games in charge, he has played:

433 with Rodrygo right wing
433 with Federico Valverde
352 with Trent Alexander Arnold at right wing back and Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo up top (twice)
4312 with Bellingham playing behind Vinicius Jr and Gonzalo
4312 with Gonzalo playing behind Vinicius Jr and Mbappe

Rodrygo will likely disappear for a few weeks on holiday, resting and recuperating from the extended season. Whilst he is away, his representatives will be establishing if he has a future at Real Madrid, and if not what other options are there.

Coming to Arsenal, to be first choice left winger, will be high on his list of options. As will joining Bayern Munich following Jamal Musiala season long injury and Leroy Sane departing.

Following next weeks talks, Rodrygo will have a couple of weeks to ponder over his future before returning to Europe to make a final decision.

If it is Arsenal, I would expect the deal to happen in early August, at the earliest.

Rodrygo would unlikely join us in the US pre-season tour due to the late finish to the season, and negotiations with Real Madrid are unlikely to be concluded quickly.

I would expect his arrival to be close to, or after, the season has started. We would then have 2-3 weeks to get him match fit and ready for after the first international break 3 games in.

In the meantime, talk for Noni Madueke is increasing pace.

Madueke is splitting fans for a multitude of reasons: His price tag, and coming from Chelsea.

I feel those calling him a “Chelsea reject” are some way off the mark. Last season he started 80% of Premier League games for the team that finished 4th, and it highlights that we are recruiting real quality for out back up players.

Kepa was first choice keeper at Bournemouth – finished 9th.
Christian Norgaard was captain of Brentford – finished 10th.
Noni Madueke was first choice right winger at Chelsea – finished 4th.

Madueke would be coming in to be backup to Saka, and a left footed option on the left wing to provide further cover (for potentially Rodrygo). He is Premier League ready and offers the raw pace and unpredictability that the team is missing.

Still only 23, I do think it is incredible that fans are writing him off just because who he plays for.

I do get fans questioning his price tag, but what does it matter if it does not stop us doing the other business we want? And you also need to take into account his much lower wages.

Yes, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia cost PSG just £59m, and he is one of the best left wingers in the world. But they are also paying him of £300k a week putting his total cost at £137.

My bet is we get Madueke for around £45m + £5m add ons. With his wages taken into account, Madueke will likely cost us around £65-70m over 5 years. So whilst he might only be costing £9-15m less than Kvaratskhelia in transfer fee, the full cost will be over £60m less. And consider:

Bryan Mbeumo – £65m
Mathues Cunha – £62m
Anthony Elanga – £55m
Mohammed Kudus – £55m

For me, Madueke is in the same bracket as these sort of fellas. And they have set the transfer fee for talented wingers who are perhaps not good enough to be starting week in week out for a top team.

Mbeumo and Cunha are ahead of him, but they are both 3-years old. And it is why Madueke will cost £15m+ less.

Madueke is on par with Elanga and Kudus taking into account their raw talent, attributes and age profile. None of them would start for Arsenal, Manchester City or Liverpool. All 3 would be back up players.

My view is if we get Madueke for less than the £50m doing the rounds (ideally closer to £40m with add ons), and his recruitment does not impact our chase for Rodrygo, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyorekes, then it is a very good move.

We moan for 3 years that Saka needs to play every game and we do not have a quality back up for him. We then spend the money to sign the man who is his back up for England and who played 80% of PL minutes for the team finishing 4th and we still moan!

Have a good Wednesday.

Keenos

Arsenal getting it right in the transfer window

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“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another goalkeeper”
“Another defensive midfielder”
“Another centre back”
“Arteta has a fetish”

It is baffling that Arsenal are criticised for not signing players, then when deals are done (and just awaiting to be announced), are then criticised for saying players.

Whilst we all know we need a striker and a winger, we also needed a new defensive midfielder, which became two when Thomas Partey decided not to sign a new deal. Right sided central defensive cover for William Saliba was also essential, as was back up for David Raya.

Whilst Kepa and Christian Norgaard might not be the most exciting names, both are experienced Premier League campaigners who are ready to go from day one. The pair played regularly for mid-table Premier League sides last year, with Norgaard captaining Brentford.

I have always said a “squad player” at a title-chasing team needs to be good enough to start regularly for a mid-table team, and Kepa and Norgaard are that. And the fact that we are getting them for just £15 million combined is shrewed business.

We could have signed more exciting players as backup dancers. Spent £20-30 million on each of them. But they would unlikely have been better than Kepa and Norgaard. And every penny over the £15m we have spent on the pair would have been a penny less than we would have to spend elsewhere.

And ultimately, the club need to sign the players they think will improve us, whilst understanding the bigger picture and impact each deal will have on other deals. They do not sign players to appease cry-arsing fans.

It has to be remembered that, with Norgaard, he is replacing Jorginho in the squad, and not Thomas Partey.

The Ghanian is our first choice defensive midfielder, and he is being replaced by Martin Zubimendi.

Taking into account Partey’s fitness problems over the 5-years at the club and his huge wage, it is hard not to see Zubimendi as an upgrade.

Zubimendi is Spain’s second best defensive midfielder behind Rodri, and was being chased by Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona. He chose Arsenal because he believed in Arteta and adds an aspect of control in the centre of midfield. A fabulous signing.

And then last night it broke that Arsenal were close to securing a deal for Valencia centreback Cristhian Mosquera.

I will be honest, I do not know much about Mosquera beyond that he was first choice for Valencia last season, is 21 today, has been playing at the Euro U21 tournament and will cost less than £20m.

Reports are that he is quick and strong, and therefore should be natural cover for William Saliba.

Last season, Saliba’s cover was a mixture of Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu. None of whom are a specialist centreback. Bringing in Mosquera would mean we have specialist cover in that area.

An eye also needs to be kept on Saliba’s contract – his current deal expires in 2-years and there has been little talk of a new one. Taking into account how Real Madrid have operated in the transfer market recently, I would not be surprised if they are already in his ear about a move in 2027.

If Mosquera is rated highly, getting him in now will give him 2-years to grow and settle before potentially replacing Saliba. Of course, I do not want the Frenchman to leave but this deal does feel like it could be future proofing our defence if he decides to depart.

So there we have it. 3 squad players signed (or on the brink of signing) for a combined £35m, and a first choice defensive midfielder for £55m. £90m spent, with all 4 likely to be announced next week (it was always said that we would start announcing deals from 1 July).

And if you are still unsure why we signed those players:

The graphic above really highlights the impact of the signings have had on the midfield down. We now have proper quality squad depth from goalkeeper, through the defence and into the midfield. 2 players for every position.

If you do not think the players we signed we essential, cross them out of the graphic above and see what you are left with….

And finally, yes we need a new striker, and a new winger. But this is not FIFA or Football Manager. You can not sign players in a “certain order” just for good PR.

A deal for someone like Rodrygo will not be done until after the Club World Cup. And it might take a few weeks after as he will want to go straight on holiday and turn off his brain. I would not be surprised if we do not see his situation resolved until August.

In the meantime, we are looking at alternatives, and Eberechi Eze is a name that has broken recently.

With his release clause, Eze would be a quick deal to do. But signing him would mean no Rodrygo.

Rodrygo needs to be our number one target, and we just need to be saying to Eze that if the deal for the Brazilian is not done by the first week of August, we will pivot to him. Now whilst some might say “why would Eze join if he knew he was second choice” – get in the real world. Most players realise when joining a new club that they were not first choice.

And in August, if Rodrygo joins, Eze would still have plenty of options on the table elsewhere.

As for the striker, the situation is unchanged with Viktor Gyorekes and Benjamin Sesko. There is still brinksmanship between Arsenal, sporting and RB Leipzeg.

I beleive Sesko is our first choice, but the sticking point is the fee. RB Leipzeg apparantly need to make some sizeable sales before 1 July, so Arsenal will be hoping to use this to drive the price down. And if the deal is not done by then, I think we will quickly pivot to Gyorekes.

All in all, Arsenal are getting it right this transfer window.

We have recruited squad players without breaking the bank. Players that raise our floor. And we are still continuing to work on a couple big name signings that will raise the ceiling. But these bigger deals take time.

Keenos