Tag Archives: Manchester United

Sven Mislintat promotion gives peak into Arsenal future

Last night it was announced that Arsenal had promoted Sven Mislintat from Head of Recruitment to Technical Director.

By promoting a scout whose vision of the game is about unearthing stars of the the future gives you a peak into Arsenal’s future.

The club will look to recruit young, exciting talent, and develop that talent into global superstars.

A return to Arsene Wenger’s early philosophy of making, not buying superstars

Earlier this week I had a little discussion with someone over the N’Golo Kante deal.

It was reported by Football Leaks that his agents had pocketed £10.6m from the deal, which would go some way to explaining why Arsenal did not follow up their interest.

Under Arsene Wenger, rightly or wrongly, we often pulled out of deals that saw a huge chunk of money going to agents.

Wenger was a ”purist” and detested agents taking money out of the game. He hated the likes of the Anelka’s who would unsettle their own client and move them from club to club, making millions of pounds in the process.

Sadly to compete for the best players, you have to be willing to deal with the likes of Jorge Mendes and Mino Raiola. Dealing with these individuals is a huge reason why Raul Sanllehi was bought in.

The conversation went beyond agents fees and also discussed that Arsenal are still a way behind the likes of Manchester United in terms of wages paid.

Recently it was revealed that Barcelona’s wage bill was approximately €487m, with Real Madrid paying out €395. In 3rd place was Manchester United at €337m. The traditional Big 3 of world football were joined by the Billionaire Boys Clubs of PSG (€272m), Manchester City (€296) and Chelsea(€256m). Juventus (€259m) and Bayern Munich (€265m) were also amongst the top 10.

Arsenal were 10th – paying out around €232m.

Whilst that is a huge amount, it is €100m less than United, whilst Barcelona pay out more than twice in wages than Arsenal.

Wages are often the key to success. The rule of thumb is the more you spend in wages, the more higher you finish up the table. This is obviously on average, so there will always be exceptions to the rule such as Leicester.

What is clear is that Arsenal are still not eating from the top table. We are still unable to pay the top wages to attract the best players. We are still a 2nd tier club behind the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Manchester United.

But we were told we moved from Highbury to enable us to compete.

And that was the plan.

The gate receipts from the emirates were meant to bring us back level with the likes of Manchester United and Barcelona – who at the time were doubling our gate receipt income.

Back in the early 00s, gate receipts were king. They were the main source of income.

But the game moved on. TV money and commercial deals are now more important than what comes through the gate.

Moving to the Emirates means that Arsenal have the 4th highest gate receipts in world football – behind the big 3 of Man U, Barcelona and Real Madrid. There is not that much in it. TV deals are also fairly neutral – although the figures above are prior to Arsenal failing to qualify for the Champions League.

What is clear is how far Arsenal fall behind when it comes to commercial revenue.

4th in gate receipts but just 10th in commercial revenue – and £162m less than Manchester United.

When we moved, we could not have predicted that the world would change to the extent it has, and that commercial profits would be king.

The thing with commercial income is it is slightly beyond our control. Manchester United, Barcelona and Real Madrid are bigger brands than Arsenal, so will naturally command more from Nike, Adidas, Emirates, AON, etc, for deals.

We are over €100m behind Manchester United in salaries paid and €162m a year behind in commercial revenue. We are still at the 2nd tier. Not at the top table.

Well we should not have moved then you cry.

Incorrect.

Had we not moved our gate receipts would have dropped by £40m to £60m. Without the big commercial deals that Bayern Munich get, or having a super rich owner like Manchester City (Stan Kronenke is rich, but doesn’t have £2.7bn he can pump into us) less gate receipts would have left us even further behind.

We would have a similar total revenue as Liverpool – who have won just a single trophy in 10 years. We would be even more reliant on selling players to generate income (Liverpool have sold over £400m worth of players in 5 years, Arsenal just £200m).

The move to the Emirates was supposed to close the gap between Arsenal and those on the top table. The explosion of commercial deals (and Billionaire Boys Clubs) have meant that the move has basically allowed us to maintain our place as a second tier club in European club football.

Hopefully with the new Adidas deal, the Rwanada deal, and other new commercial deals, we will see that gap close up, allowing us to be more competitive.

By promoting Mislintat, Arsenal have shown great self awareness.

We do not have an owner who will pump in £2.7bn of his own, and neither should we expect him to do so.

In European football at the moment, it is only PSG and Man City who have owners bankrolling them. Roman has turned the tap off. Every other club is (attempting at least) to run a self sufficient model. You spend what you bring in.

With a great coach like Unai Emery, and the promotion of Mislintat, Arsenal will continue buying the next global superstars. Lucas Torreira and Matteo Guendouzi rather than N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba.

Some might see this as the wrong route. That we should be spending hundreds of millions a year on transfers, but this not realistic.

We as fans have to understand that as a club we can not afford to pay the wages of Man U, Barcelona or Real Madrid. Kante is about to sign a £290,000 deal. Alexis Sanchez close to £500,000.

Arsenal are not going to suddenly magic up another £100-150m a year to fund the big transfers.

As Dortmund, Monaco, Atlético Madrid, Liverpool & Napoli have shown, you can build a competitive team through sensible recruitment rather than big money signings.

It is about how you buy, not what you spend.

Good recruitment + good coaching = success.

And Mislintat is key to the future of the club.

Keenos

The door is still open for Aaron Ramsey at Arsenal

“The contract is off the table” – it could not have been any clearer from either side. The deal was off. Aaron Ramsey was free to speak to other people from January.

His agent then put another nail in the coffin with some tweets to an Arsenal fan which confirmed he was off – but didn’t want to leave.

Like everything in football; it was down to money.

He wanted a certain salary, and after about a year of negotiating both sides had seemingly come to an agreement. The contract was on the table. But then Ramsey dithered. He did not sign.

Why he and his people did not sign, we might never know. But it was this final act that led Arsenal to take to contract off the table.

There has been plenty of talk that having seen him play for 10 weeks, manager Unai Emery felt that Ramsey did not fit into his system. Certainly not with Mesut Özil in the side.

Emery wants to play 4231. Ramsey struggles in a midfield 2, often leaving his playing partner isolated and exposed. Pushing Ozil outside reduced the Germans effectiveness – and he is very effective with a goal or assist every 157 minutes in the Premier League.

So whilst Ramsey dithered, Emery made the decision that the Welshman was no longer the guaranteed starter he became under Wenger. And making a player the clubs second highest paid player – reportedly £250k a week – was an inappropriate use of club funds. That the salary could be reinvested elsewhere, on a player who is going to be starting week in week out.

So we all expected Ramsey to leave. His agent announced he was going, burning bridges in a hugely unprofessional manner. Against Fulham – even with Ozil out – he found himself on the bench. But then he showed his quality, as he was integral in starting and finishing the wonder goal.

Ramsey leaving Arsenal is not yet a done thing. He is not yet out of the door. He is still wearing the red and white. So let’s work through the scenarios.

Ramsey decides to leave.

In January he can negotiate with foreign clubs; with the view of a free transfer in the summer. Or someone might stomp up £20m to secure him for the second half of the season – remembering he will not be Champions League tied.

But where could he end up?

Money is clearly a key motivator. As is playing.

On the first factor, money, who could actually afford to pay him the £250k that Arsenal were seemingly willing too? And if we think that figure is exaggerated, who would pay him £200k?

Man City could afford him with ease. But realistically would they want or need him?

With Kevin de Bruyne, David Silva, Bernard Silva and Riyad Mahrez, they have plenty of number 10s in their squad. Investing in Ramsey wouldn’t make sense. And he would struggle to get the game time he desires, possible not even make the bench.

Liverpool have been heavily linked in recent days. But would they really be willing to pay him what he wants?

Mo Salah is reportedly their highest paid player on £200k a week. Then Firminho on £180k. Sadio Mane on just £90k. Would they make Ramsey their highest paid player? That will soon get other players knocking at the chairman’s door for more money.

And where would he actually fit in? They play a hard working midfield that frees up Salah, Mane and Firminho to attack at will. Playing Ramsey would unbalance them, like it does Arsenal.

Manchester United can afford him. And he would be a realistic target if Paul Pogba leaves. But if Pogba remains; United are in the same position as Arsenal.

Either having to play Pogba or Ramsey deep in a two or wide to accommodate the other one. Ultimately they will have a similar decision as Arsenal. Do you pay Ramsey what he wants even though he won’t start week in, week out?

Chelsea is an interesting one. They need home grown players and if Eden Hazard leaves, they might see renewing the Ramsey / Olivier Giroud as a way forward. They could be an outside bet.

As for moving abroad, I have seen AC Milan, Juventus and Bayern Munich mentioned. But next summer he will be the father of 8-month old twins. Is he really going to uproot his family, away from the support network?

And can too many foreign teams afford the €11m a year he is commanding?

At Juventus, Cristiano Ronaldo is the highest paid player on €30m. Next up is Douglas Costa on just €8m. No one else is on more than €100k a year. Or £90k in British sterling. Will they break the bank for Ramsey? Making him their 2nd best paid player? On twice the much of the 3rd most paid? I doubt it.

AC Milan are no different. Only Gonzalo Higuain is on above €100k (€145k reportedly). Are they going to nearly double what he is on to get Ramsey? The Welshman will be on 3 times the salary of the next highest paid player if the match Arsenal’s reported £250k (€280) offer.

Bayern Munich certainly have a capacity to go north woods of €200k. Robert Lewandowski is on €225k. But like the other sides, would they be willing to make Ramsey the highest paid player?

Last summer they gave Leon Goretzka €190k a week. That made the German youngster their second highest paid player. Ramsey is looking at €100k more than this…

So suddenly lots of doors are shutting around Ramsey. The interest is not there at what he is demanding. It is a reality check.

Does he go to United and end up in the same situation at Arsenal, just on a higher wage? Does he wait for Chelsea to sell Hazard and hope they bring him in to replace him?

Or does he drop his salary demands to a more realistic £150k a week to generate interest from Liverpool – and certainly make Manchester United interested.

Think of that figure for a minute. £150k a week. £100k less than what was reportedly on the table at Arsenal. £5.2m a year less. Suddenly could Arsenal be interested again?

At £150k a week, Ramsey would fit in with the squads current wage structure. It would only actually be an increase of £40k on his current deal. An extra £2m a year.

If Ramsey lowered his wage demands to other clubs to £150k a week, it’d certainly get another contract from Arsenal on the table.

So Ramsey would not have to move, could bring up his family in the surroundings they have been used to for a decade, and he would still get plenty of game time.

Whilst he wouldn’t be a guaranteed starter, Ozil has a history of illness and back spasms. He misses at least 30% of the season – last year it was closer to 50%. Ramsey would still end up playing pretty much every game – starting 15 – 20 and coming off the bench for the majority of the rest.

Ramsey also has his injury problems.

Last season he started just 21 Premier League games. The year before it was 13. Over the last 5 years he has averaged just 20 league starts a season.

Even playing back up to Ozil he wouldn’t be too far off that figure were he to remain.

So things around Ramsey will go quiet for a bit. His agent will be speaking in dark cafes across England and Europe seeing what interest there is for his client. And at what salary. He will probably come back with bad news for Ramsey.

Manchester United is a maybe, the others will all say “no” at his current salary demands.

With no new contract signed in March, Arsenal will reopen talks. Maybe stick a £150k contract on the table. Point at the fact that they know this is the level at what Liverpool are interested at. Why leave when the same money is on the table from Arsenal? Perhaps offer him a 5 year deal instead of 4. A little bit extra in an appearance fee.

One thing is for certain, the door is not shut, Aaron Ramsey’s future is not a guarantee to be away from Arsenal.

Keenos

Transfer fees set to become obsolete?

Twelve months ago a lot was being made in the press about the contract is Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez.

“1 year left, how have Arsenal got themselves into this position” were the cries at the time.

An interesting interview with Arsene Wenger gave a glimpse into what he believed was the future.

With dramatically increasing transfer fees, the former Arsenal boss was of the opinion that the future would see a lot more players winding down their contract and leaving for no transfer fee.

That clubs would offer shorter term deals to players 2 to 3 years, a player would do his time and move on.

It would provide security to the club – knowing that if a player signed a 3 year deal he was likely to see it out – and security to the player – knowing that if he fell out of favour, he could spend a year away on loan before moving on.

For those scoffing at the opinion, writing it off as a way Wenger justifies the clubs handling of the Ozil and Sanchez contract situations, let’s look at those contracts set to expire within the next 2 years:

Manchester United

2019

David de Gea*, Anthony Martial*, Juan Mata, Ander Herrera, Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, Luke Shaw, Matteo Darmian*, Antonio Valencia*, Ashley Young, Andreas Pereira

2020

Marcus Rashford*, Nemanja Matic*, Eric Bailly, Marouane Fellaini*, Lee Grant

*Contract contains option for a further year

Arsenal

2019

Aaron Ramsey, Danny Welbeck, Nacho Monreal, Petr Cech, Stephan Lichtsteiner

2020

Laurent Koscielny, Carl Jenkinson

Manchester City

2019

Vincent Kompany, Eliaquim Mangala, Brahim Diaz

2020

Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero, Ilkay Gundogan, David Silva, Fernandinho, Fabian Delph, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Phil Foden, Claudio Bravo

Tottenham

2019

Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen, Mousa Dembele, Fernando Llorente, Michel Vorm

2020

Christian Eriksen, Vincent Janssen

Chelsea

2019

Cesc Fabregas, David Luiz, Olivier Giroud, Gary Cahill, Lucas Piazon, Willy Caballero, Robert Green

2020

Eden Hazard, Willian, Cesar Azpilicueta, Pedro, Marco van Ginkel, Ethan Ampadu

Liverpool

2019

James Milner, Daniel Sturridge, Alberto Moreno, Lazar Markovic

2020

Adam Lallana, Joel Matip, Nathaniel Clyne, Divock Origi

If you disregard the guys expiring in. 2020, you could easily build a competitive team with players whose contract expires in 12 months.

De Gea

Alderweireld Kompany Vertonghen

Milner Herrera Fabregas Shaw

Martial Ramsey

Giroud

I do not think transfer fees will become completely obsolete in the future. Teams will still want to sign players under contract. But what will happen is the majority of transfer will be free, or loan deals, and fees for players under contract will become astronomical.

The future could be upon us.

Keenos