Tag Archives: Newcastle

No sympathy for the “Badly Run 6”

2 Replies

Yesterday it was leaked that 6 clubs were at the risk of breaking Profit and Sustainability Rules, and might have to sell before 30 June to avoid breaching them.

Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Everton Nottingham Forest and Leicester City were the 6 clubs named. And as expected, fans of the clubs (alongside Manchester City fans) blame the rules their clubs signed up for, and the “Cartel 6” – their pet name for the “Big 6”.

Oddly, they include Chelsea as part of that Big 6. But the West London club are one of those facing punishment.

The truth is, these clubs are not being punished for being ambitious. They are being punished for being badly run. The Badly Run 6.

Everton – Last season Everton were hit with 2 points deductions, so it should be no surprise they are on this list.

Whilst their fans followed their red brothers and sisters and played the victims, the truth is they are the worst run Premier League club since Leeds United. And a perfect example as to why PSR is needed.

When Farhad Moshiri became major shareholder in Everton in 2016, their fans rejoiced. The expectation was he was a front for oligarch Alisher Usmanov and the Uzbeki would bankroll them to success.

Huge early spending was financed by sponsorship deals linked with the former-Arsenal owners companies. But huge money signings did not translate to success on the pitch.

As Covid hit, Eveton’s finances were in a mess. In 2022, they “claimed” that Covid had cost them £170m. This was nearly £100m more than the next largest loss claimed – Arsenal’s £86m.

Everton have continued to balance the books and, with Moshri wanting out, they have been taking out monthly loans from private companies to finance their day to day running.

Everton’s net debt increased to roughly £330m at the end of June 2023 up from £141m a year earlier. And that does not include the £200m they owe 777 Partnerships.

Instead of blaming the Premier League, and pointing fingers at clubs that are run better, they should be directing their anger to their owners.

Without PSR, Everton would be in administrations and plummeting down the leagues.

Chelsea – Is it any surprise that Chelsea are on this list?

Their new owners thought they were being clever, spending close to £1bn over the space of a couple of years, handing out long term contracts to everyone. There is a reason why other clubs never exploited amortisation and only gave out 5-year contracts on average.

The Chelsea plan was clear – to spend huge on young players, give them long contracts to spread out the transfer fee, and then sell academy graduates to balance the books.

Last season they raised £75m by selling Mason Mount, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi. This was topped up by cashing in on the Saudi boom.

It was always known that to stay within PSR, Chelsea would have to continue selling academy graduates and this season they will look to raise funds through the likes of Reece James, Conor Gallagher, Levi Colwill and Trevoh Chalobah.

It is an unsustainable model as it relies on academy graduates the calibre of Mount, James and Gallagher to come through each year, become regulars, and be sold for big money.

Chelsea will be in the “have to sell to buy” for years to come due to the contract situations.

Aston Villa – Villa are being upheld as the team who are “being punished for trying to be competitive; with loads of comments about how they sold an academy graduate for a record British transfer fee and are still in danger of breaching the rules.

There is a bit to unpack on this one, so we will start with Jack Grealish.

For years, any time Liverpool made a big money signing, they justified it by saying “we are just spending the Coutinho cash”, instead of just acknowledging they were a big spending club. Villa is becoming a similar joke with the Grealish money.

Grealish left them in 2021 for £100m. that same summer they signed Emiliano Buendia (£33m), Leon Bailey (£30m), Danny Ings (£25m). £88m and, Bailey aside (when fit), very uninspiring. Reminds me of when Spurs spent the Gareth Bale money on a load of rubbish.

To the above, they then added Lucas Digne (£25m) in January.

In 2022, their fans continued to claim they were still spending the Grealish money as they signed Diego Carlos (£26m) and Coutinho (£17m). A fairly quiet summer was backed up by a busy winter as they signed John Duran (£14.7m), Alex Moreno (£13.2m) and Leander Dendoncker (£13m).

Aston Villa are not in their current position because they have been ambitious, they are in the position because they have bought a load of tripe and wasted that Grealish money. And this is a continuation of what they have done since returning to the Premier League in 2018.

Aston Villa have spent nearly £500m since returning to the Premier League. They are the 8th highest spenders with only the “Big 6” and West Ham United ahead of them. Alongside this, they have consistently had a wage to turnover ratio of 80% – IE they spend 80% of their turnover on wages

Villa have “leapfrogged” other clubs who operate within PSR such as West Ham and Brighton through their spending.

There is a tight line between being “ambitious” and being “wreckless”.

Aston Villa’s owners took the gamble and got Champions League football as a reward. For them the gamble might have paid off. But for many others taking the gamble it does not. Villa could quite easily go the way of Everton if they are unable to sustain their spending.

Nottingham Forest – Like Chelsea and Everton, it should be no surprise these clowns are on this list.

Since promotion back to the Premier League in 2022, Notts Forst have signed 35 first team players. A further 11 have also joined on loan.

The majority of these players came in on short term deals, with sizeable signing on fees. Many have now left for free having seen their contract expire. It is not sustainable to run a club on signing almost a whole squad every summer, and releasing the same amount of players.

They have already been hit with one points deduction, and it will not be a surprise if they are hit with another. A badly run clubs.

Leicester City – The implosion at Leicester City has been on the cards for years.

After their success in 2016, they continued to building a team off the back of the Champions League money and sales that saw them also win the FA Cup and finish top 6 twice. In 2021 there was talk as to whether they had replaced Arsenal as a “Big 6” side.

But they were being quietly propped up by the income from their owners company – King Power. King Power International Group is a Thai travel retail group. They basically own and operate duty free shops across Asia.

When Covid hit, flights were grounded globally. And no flights meant no income for King Power. This is when things started going downhill for Leicester, and also highlights why the Premier League want to protect clubs from having “above market value” sponsorship deals from companies owned by owners.

In 2023, Leicester City announce club-record loss of £92.5m and their debt peaked in 2023 to £364m – with £194m of that owed to their owners.

Leicester City act as a warning to Aston Villa – ambition is not always sustainable and if you recruit players on big wages and do not maintain your league position, the debts will quickly rise.

“Victims of their owners ambition” is how I would label Leicester City’s current predicament. he club continued to gamble, expecting the income to continue rolling in, and it did not.

2 years ago Leicester were relegated. A warning of what could happen if you rely only on owners ambition, rather than running the club well.

Newcastle United – The final club on the list is Newcastle United. I was surprised they are close to being in breach.

Whilst they have spent big since the Saudi’s came in, it felt like they were operating sensibly and working withing PSR – clearly with one eye on the Manchester City case.

Last season they secured Champions League football. This season they have no European football. And that is maybe why they are sailing close to the winds on PSR.

That will be a £50m+ drop in income from 2023/24 to 2024/25. they now have to finance a huge wage bill without any European income.

Are Newcastle a victim of ambition? I would say no. Are they being held back from signing players due to PSR? Probably.

If anyone was to be against PSR, it would be Newcastle. They want to be where Man City are but can not spend the millions that their fellow PetroClub did.

But what is interesting is it is only their fans moaning about PSR, not the owners or management. This makes me think they are happy with PSR and are looking to grow the club sensibly, for generations to come.

Newcastle fans sum up the “fast food culture” that we live in. They want to be bank rolled to immediate success. They are not willing to wait and grow sensibly.

I do not think Newcastle are that badly run. They just have fans who have ideas above their station.

With all of this, it has to be remembered that PSR effects all clubs.

Fans hit out at the “Cartal 6” yet one of those facing punishment is Chelsea.

In January, Manchester United were unable to recruit due to PSR. Arsenal also pulled out of a deal for Mohammed Kudus due to PSR. Liverpool have also face restrictions on what they spend.

It is also nothing new for players to move to bigger clubs, where they will play on bigger stages, earn more money and have a greater chance of success.

I see fans of Everton, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest moaning that PSR is the reason why they might have to sell Jarrod Branthwaite, Alexander Isak, Ollie Watkins and Morgan Gibbs-White this summer. But none of these were academy graduates.

Was PSR the reason Branthwaite left Carlisle for Everton? Or Isak joining Newcastle from Sociedad? Watkins joined Villa from Brentfod and Gibbs-White moved from Sheffield United to Nottingham Forest.

It seems fans moan about PSR when it is there player looking to move clubs. But when they are signing players nothing is said.

You can not sit their demanding your club sign X, Y or Z player from clubs below you in the league, then cry foul play when a club higher than you signs one of your players.

I have made it clear that PSR is a good thing. It is needed to protect the future of clubs.

Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle, Leicester, Aston Villa and Notts Forest are not being punished for their ambition. They are being punished because they are badly run.

Ladies and gentlemen, introducing the Badly Run 6.

Keenos

Chelsea transfers, Boring Boring Newcastle and Wishing to be Everton

1 Reply

Chelsea Transfers

A lot has already been written about Chelsea’s transfer business over the last two windows.

I have never seen anything like it before.

The long term contracts are normal in baseball, a sport Todd Boehly has been involved nin for over a decade. He has basically taken the way things work in America and applied it to football.

If it works, it will change the way every football team operates. If it doesn’t, Chelsea are going to end up with a lot of underperforming players on long term contracts.

One aspect rarely mentioned is that during the takeover, the consortium Boehly is part of had to commit to investing £1.75 billion over 10 years into the club. It is this investment that is freeing up the cash to make these transfer, the fees then amortised over the length of the contracts for accounting purposes.

One risk Boehy is taking is over squad size.

As it stands, Chelsea have 37 “senior” players, including those out on loan. Arsenal have 30.

They also do not look like slowing down their spending and are being linked with Moisés Caicedo and Marcus Thuram, and with a deal for Christopher Nkunku agreed for the summer.

They are going to have to release sell or loan out a lot of players during the back-end of this window and throughout the next just to ensure they do not end up with double figures of unregistered players.

On paper, bringing their squad numbers down does not quite look as difficult as it seems.

Of the 39 players contracted to the club (included Nkunku):

2 have their loan deals expiring
4 have their contracts expiring
At least 8 look surplus to requirements

If they decided to not renew any of the deals expiring, and were able to shift the 8 players listed above, it would take their squad size down to 26.

With many of them not needed to be registered due to being U21, they would have squad space to make further additions.

But selling (or loaning) those players comes at a risk.

Any loan deals will see Chelsea still paying a huge chunk of the salaries. Clubs will know the players need to be dumped and will take advantage of that.

Likewise, the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are unlikely to be sold unless Chelsea are willing to take a huge loss on their transfers.

If they can not sell or loan enough players, they will end up looking at cashing in on Kai Havertz, Cristian Pulisic, Raheem Sterling and others. Players they do not really want rid of but would be fairly easy to move on.

If they can move on everyone they need to, it will see around 14 players depart, with 14 bought in over 3 windows. That is tough for any manager to integrate.

Chelsea’s transfer behaviour is due to how poorly they have been run over the last few years.

Too many ageing players whose contracts expired, and too many big money replacements have flopped. They have needed this huge investment to re-address their squad issues.

What they now need is all of their new signings to “bang”. Any of that doesn’t they will be stuck with for a long time…

Boring, Boring Newcastle

Newcastle have kept 7 clean sheets in the 8 games since the return of football. A fantastic achievement.

But they have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 Premier League games – an 84th minute winner against Fulham.

3rd in the league is sensational for a small club like them.

Even when you take into account the money spent – and it really has not been that much – what Eddie Howe has done is incredible.

But the way he has done it is not so impressive, and beginning to get exposed.

Howe sets his team up to stop opponents, to waste time, to spoil the game, and to win free kicks and set plays.

The fact 3 sides have been sanctioned by the FA when playing Newcastle shows just how much they are set up to frustrate and ruin the game.

And it is not just the XI on the field that get involved. Coaches and substitutes have been booked on numerous occasions for trying to slow down the game.

And this style of ply is slowly catching up with them as lesser sides begin to realise they are not a threat going forward.

It is all well and good coming away from the Emirates with a 0-0, but failing to beat or score against Crystal Palace or Leeds United just isn’t top 4 form.

Their time-wasting tactics will be to their own disadvantage as we get to the stage of the season where teams need to win, not draw, games.

Wishing to be Everton

“Be careful what you wish for”.

Some Arsenal fans cried like babies when Farhad Moshiri sold his minority share in Arsenal and bought Everton. It would be the end of us as a top club and turn Everton into title challengers.

With his departure, they also thought this would be the end of Alshir Usmanov’s links with Arsenal, and the Uzbecki would plow his billions into Liverpool’s second club.

Part of that proved right as 2 years later KSE bought our Usmanov’s shares to take 100% ownership of the club.

But Usmanov’s money did not appear in Everton, other than in a training sponsorship deal.

Despite the lack of obvious Usmanov funds, Everton would begin to spend big (note: prior to the take over they have never spent more than €50m):

2016/17: €86m

2017/18: €203.2m

2018/19: €99.8m

2019/20: €121m

Over €500m spent over 5 years.

On 21 December 2019, they appointed the great Carlow Ancelotti as manager. The day before we appointed Mikel Arteta into his first managerial role.

A serial winner versus a managerial virgin. Against the Arsenal-incels shed tears into their used Kleenex.

Why didn’t we appoint Ancelotti? With Moshri (and Usmanov’s) money and him in charge, they will be title challengers!

In 2020, they then recruited James Rodriguez, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Allan. 3 players some Arsenal fans wanted us to sign. This will be the year they finish above us!

Everton finished 10th and Ancelotti quit to return to Real Madrid.

The next season, investment dropped to €58m. 70% less spent on players than the peak of 2017.

Last summer they spent €78.2m, but the names of Onana, McNeil, Maupay and Garner were not exactly Rodriguez…

And now they are 19th in the table, whilst Arsenal are top of the league.

Moshri and Ancelotti or Kroenke and Arteta. Be careful what you wish for.

Keenos

So Toon pegged us back. It’s no nail in the coffin.

4 Replies

In the aftermath of our admittedly disappointing draw to Newcastle, some have wondered whether our apparently fragile and temporary table position has started to slip. Having missed a chance at going ten points clear, we now sit just eight above City pending their match at Stamford Bridge after which our lead may have shrunk to as little as five. Clearly, we should consider looking to the heavens to see if the sky is falling or, alternately, if pigs are flying. 

It’s easier to suspect the former idiom after we’ve dropped points for the first time since 23 October and just third time all season. Is this then the first wobble that portends a deeper fall? From our point of view, it’s easy to let those old feelings of doubt creep in. After all, for as high as we’re flying, we’ve spent the last decade or dreading what felt like inevitable collapse, be it an unfortunate early goal conceded, a horror tackle, or an epic, disastrous defeat. We’d watch as players on the pitch let their shoulders slump and chins drop. We’ve only had a few precious months to exorcise years of existential dread; it’s normal to feel murmurs of that same dread.

How to dispel them? Let’s drag out that latter idiom. Ever since we rose to the top of the table, various pundits (especially of the Mancunian variety) have held that Arsenal will win the Prem when pigs fly. However, they’re trying to have their cake and eat it while talking out of two orifices at once. On one hand, they’re touting Newcastle as a serious contender for a top-three finish at a mininum. On the other, they’re crowing about how this draw strikes a fatal wound to our own campaign. It can’t really be both. Sharing a point with a top-three rival is…normal if not preferable. If it had been, say, relegation fodder like Everton that came in and snatched a draw, that would be a different story—but that’s such a laughably unimaginable scenario that one wonders why I’d even mention it. 

The reality then is that  this result does offer some legitimacy to Newcastle’s status  but does not much away from ours. Only one club have beaten Newcastle, and that was away to Liverpool. This draw marks the sixth straight clean sheet Newcastle have kept, and they barely did so on Tuesday. Had we been just a bit sharper, especially in those first 15 minutes, or if Madley had remembered that he liked punishing shirt tugs (which he booked Nketiah and Ødegaard for in the first half), we might have come away with a comfy win.

Newcastle played like they were Pulis-era Stoke with a bigger budget. Those are the kinds of tactics that used to intimidate and unsettle us. This squad, however, is made of sterner stuff, greater conviction, and deeper desire. For as young as they are, these players rise to challenges. Conceding a goal seems to anger them. I suspect that dropping points at home with inspire them that much more. It’s almost a pity that we have to wait almost ten days to properly show how we react to setback.

Jon

Jon Shay manages his own blog, Woolwich 1886, and you can find him on Twitter at @LeftLegOLiam